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MOT
LSU Fan
Member since Jul 2006
14090 posts

re: So, Are We Done?

I would bet just about anything that LSU isn't done.


redfieldk717
LSU Fan
Alec Box
Member since Oct 2011
25465 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
quote:

I would bet just about anything that LSU isn't done.


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GOP_Tiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
2862 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
We aren't favored for Willis, Goodman, Nkemdiche, Foster, Jackson, etc., and some of them are true longshots. The odds of us getting one specific player from that group are poor, but the collective odds of getting one of them are very good.


DeltaDoc
LSU Fan
The Delta
Member since Jan 2008
9996 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
quote:

The odds of us getting one specific player from that group are poor, but the collective odds of getting one of them are very good.


Huh?


Summer of George
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2010
2868 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
No. We're not done.


GOP_Tiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
2862 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
I would guess that we have chances that look like this:

Willis 35%
Nkemdiche 10%
Foster 10%
Jackson 25%
Goodman 5%

I'm not interested in debating these percentages, and they are certainly based on less info than possessed by many other posters on this board. If you focus on any one particular recruit, it is unlikely that we get that recruit. If you look at the group of recruits as a whole, though, it is likely that we end up pulling one from that group.
This post was edited on 1/21 at 12:17 pm


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Summer of George
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2010
2868 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
We'll sign 29 with 4 counting back.


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mtheob17
LSU Fan
Atlanta
Member since Sep 2009
2784 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
quote:

with Willis not visiting,


Wrong...


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ForeLSU
LSU Fan
The Corner of Sanity and Madness
Member since Sep 2003
35874 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
quote:

The odds of us getting one specific player from that group are poor, but the collective odds of getting one of them are very good.


odds of independent events don't add up to an overall probability of at least one of them occurring

This post was edited on 1/21 at 11:29 am


FISH N TIGER
LSU Fan
Just up the road a bit.
Member since Jun 2007
844 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
I think LSU has all they will get in big time recruits and no doubt they have some good ones, i'm not gonna waste any more time on the wish players, just don't think they gonna come.


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GOP_Tiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
2862 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
quote:

odds of independent events don't add up to an overall probability of at least one of them occurring
If my percentages were correct, we would have a 62% chance of getting one of them.

You are correct that you cannot add the percentages of independent events. To calculate the probability of getting at least one of them, first find the probability that we get none of them. That's .65 * .9 * .9 * .95 * .75 = .3751, which is 38%. That means that there is a 62% chance that we get at least one of them.


DeltaDoc
LSU Fan
The Delta
Member since Jan 2008
9996 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
Interesting


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Penrod
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2011
5365 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
quote:

GOP_Tiger


quote:

You are correct that you cannot add the percentages of independent events. To calculate the probability of getting at least one of them, first find the probability that we get none of them. That's .65 * .9 * .9 * .95 * .75 = .3751, which is 38%. That means that there is a 62% chance that we get at least one of them.


Was there any doubt that someone smart enough to state this case would be a republican?


jamal
LSU Fan
Places Unknown
Member since Jan 2013
3650 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
Should have know i never was to sure about nkemdiche


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Bear Is Dead
LSU Fan
Monroe
Member since Nov 2007
3999 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
Nice statistical analysis


OlyTiger
LSU Fan
Lacey, WA
Member since Mar 2008
703 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
Anyone ever think when a player trolls and says LSU is in their top 2 or 3 but it's all smoke that LSU should pull their offer?


tigerdeal1
LSU Fan
Kingwood, Texas
Member since Oct 2011
157 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
Penrod and GOP the both of you better never stop posting on this site!

I have not laughed so hard it quite some time those posts were priceless!

This Class is awesome with no one else but I still think we get one more! Also, there is this kid...

LINK =

Again chances are pretty slim but Miles seems to always pull some signing day magic! I just wish he would pull some O-Coord magic as well.


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jeff70121
LSU Fan
Metairie
Member since Dec 2011
607 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
Spears will be a 3 star & so was Brandon Lafell


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damnstrongfan
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2009
895 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
quote:

hes listed as an athlete but will likely play safety...4* kid out of florida, very good player. cant provide a link right now but will when i get to a computer




2* on Scout.


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LSUTil_iDie
LA-Monroe Fan
Lawrenceville, GA
Member since Jan 2012
4728 posts

re: So, Are We Done?
quote:

Was there any doubt that someone smart enough to state this case would be a republican?




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