As you can see you end up with the same amount, $188,674. So it comes down to whether you believe taxes will be higher or lower when you retire.
Sort of. You are ignoring the fact that when you deduct tax today, you are saving from your highest tax bracket. When you pay tax in retirement, you are paying at least some of it in a lower tax bracket.
In your pay later example, you have $251k before tax, but presumably we will still have a progressive set of tax brackets so that your first however many thousand is, say, 10%, your next however many is 20%, etc. So even if you are in the same marginal
tax bracket when you retire you pay less.
However, it may not be that much difference, I personally have a Roth just in case.