Doing LES with more..... - Page 4 - TigerDroppings.com

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EarthwormJim
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Member since Dec 2005
9751 posts

re: Doing LES with more.....


quote:

because the I'm almost sure it is dwarfed by the number of 3+ star recruits who were "busts"


Well I was referring to 3 star and low rated 4 stars, guys who weren't highly recruited by other top programs.

Again show me the data that says LSU has more "busts" than other programs.






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CptBengal
USA Fan
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Member since Dec 2007
38334 posts

re: Doing LES with more.....


quote:

All of this assumes that recruiting ranks are an accurate predictor 1:1 predictor of success


no it doesn't.

because the model is based not on that assumption, but rather on the ACTUAL OUTPUT of the teams in FBS over the 4/5 years span.

The model's trend isnt the 1:1 relationship. It's actually much worse than that because of teams like us pulling the front end up, and smaller teams with poor recruiting classes pulling the tail end down.

In that regard, if we ignore those lower recruiting ranked teams who put up good offensive production....the trend of doing LES with more becomes even worse.

bad argument dude.






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CptBengal
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re: Doing LES with more.....


quote:

Again show me the data that says LSU has more "busts" than other programs.
for the third time...that isn;t what the OP shows.

you can keep trying to reframe the relationship in the graph, but the relationship of Les Miles getting worse offensive production with higher rated recruits versus similar schools, and in fact the average of all of FBS, is a fact.






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CptBengal
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re: Doing LES with more.....


quote:

still reflects poorly on Les Miles.


OK, whatever. You win.



Win what?

I thought we were having a nice discussion....If Miles recruits these QBs, and they are as you say "bad players", whose fault is it for recruiting them?






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lsufanz
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Member since Dec 2008
458 posts

re: Doing LES with more.....


quote:

All of this assumes that recruiting ranks are an accurate predictor 1:1 predictor of success. Did you account for the potential error there?


That potential error would apply to all teams and balance itself out, unless LSU's recuits are rated higher than they should be simply because they go to LSU. This is an argument that I've seen on the Rant about other programs, but never LSU.






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EarthwormJim
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2005
9751 posts

re: Doing LES with more.....


quote:

for the third time...that isn;t what the OP shows. you can keep trying to reframe the relationship in the graph, but the relationship of Les Miles getting worse offensive production with higher rated recruits versus similar schools, and in fact the average of all of FBS, is a fact.


I understand what you're graph says. My statement was made to another poster who claimed our highly ranked players were busts because of coaching. And then you jumped in on that argument.



This post was edited on 1/3 at 6:59 pm


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stho381
LSU Fan
Lafayette, LA
Member since Jan 2012
2627 posts

re: Doing LES with more.....


Bad statistics is bad when all variables aren't the same.


Bama gets easier schedule than LSU......if you are going to do this, then you have to compare based solely on common opponents. You can't discount having to play better teams when you are looking at offensive production. Secondly, styles are a variable that completely make this point worthless based on these statistics. The only way to compare a spread offense and a run-based offense is to look at yds/play since that eliminates the fact that LSU on it's best day wants 65 snaps and a team like aTm wants 100.


If you want to compare to Bama, then use your statistical know-how to compare yds/play against common opponents and you will get your best possible comparison most likely.


Lastly, if you are going to look at recruiting rank, then you can only look at what the rank would be for each class minus defensive recruits. LSU's recruiting rank for the past couple years has been dramatically improved by defensive recruits and thus they have no direct effect on our "total offense" rank which means you are compring apples to oranges in this instance.


tl;dr - BAD STATISTICS IS BAD



This post was edited on 1/3 at 7:08 pm


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lsufanz
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Member since Dec 2008
458 posts

re: Doing LES with more.....


Perriloux and Shep were highly ranked, if I remember correctly, but I don't follow the "stars" as much as many on here. Another question regarding the QB recruiting is whether we can expect to land Highly recruited QBs given the track record of the program. It is understandable that we get significant talent on defense because prior recruits have succeeded at LSU.





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lsufanz
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re: Doing LES with more.....


quote:

If you want to compare to Bama, then use your statistical know-how to compare yds/play against common opponents and you will get your best possible comparison most likely.


Actually, the relationship being tested is offensive output to ranking of recruited talent. If you want to hypothesize that LSU produces less on offense intentionally due to style, then so be it, but the relationship is what it is.






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MountainTiger
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Colorado Springs
Member since Dec 2008
4078 posts
 Online 

re: Doing LES with more.....


quote:

Win what?

I don't know man. Whatever it is you're trying to win.

quote:

I thought we were having a nice discussion....If Miles recruits these QBs, and they are as you say "bad players", whose fault is it for recruiting them?

It's Miles' fault. I stipulated that 3 posts ago. He's the head coach; everything's fricking his fault.

The point you are making is that on average, Miles is not getting production out of our players in proportion to their talent level as measured by recruiting rankings. The point that I'm making is that failure to effectively recruit at a single position may be making our production appear worse than it is. If that's true then maybe we're not as bad off as we think we are. Maybe it's an easier fix. That's all I'm saying.

Remind me not to ever agree with you again.






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stho381
LSU Fan
Lafayette, LA
Member since Jan 2012
2627 posts

re: Doing LES with more.....


quote:

that LSU produces less on offense intentionally due to style, then so be it, but the relationship is what it is.



Then the relationship of total offensive yards compared across many teams is irrelevant and meaningless. Common sense says a team averaging 80+ offensive snaps a game based on a hurry up offense will have more total yards than a team that plays minimal hurry up and wants to keep the clock running.

Why have the relationship if it isn't proving anything or giving any meaningful information. As I said, bad statistics is bad. You are misleading people on this board into thinking that your "relationship" between recruiting rankings(which include defensive players) is somehow realted to the fact that LSU doesn't have as many offensive yards as some other top 30 teams. Well, it doesn't matter how many 5* athletes LSU has on offense, they will NEVER be ahead of aTm, Oregon, or any other spread team with comparable talent because LSU doesn't try to run a hurry up all game.

Again, for the fourth time, bad statistics is bad.






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CptBengal
USA Fan
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
38334 posts

re: Doing LES with more.....


Lulz. You really wanna say that a couple of those teams are driving the relationship in all of fbs?

Lol. Seriously, do yourself a favor and learn about leverage, then come back look at the graph again, and realize based on the spread of the points that your comment is moot.






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BATiger
LSU Fan
Bossier City
Member since Sep 2009
58 posts

re: Doing LES with more.....


quote:

rick you, I'm a KIN major.





Does this mean if the angle of the dangle is perpendicular to the fall of the ball, then the beat of the meat is constant?






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TexTiga
LSU Fan
SugarLand , Tx
Member since Oct 2007
2267 posts

re: Doing LES with more.....


quote:

Bad statistics is bad

Stho you are correct. While the data analysis is accurate the assumptions and judgements made by our Cpt arejust that. HIS assumptions and judgements.
Style of play , opponent, schedule etc. mostly effect offensive output.






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That LSU Guy
LSU Fan
The beach
Member since Jul 2008
4116 posts

re: Doing LES with more.....


quote:

so alabama is competing for their 3rd BCS national championship in 4 years and LSU is sitting at home after choking against clemson.
yet their last two trips to the big game had absolutely nothing to do with them on the field.

Thanks Okie State, Kansas State, Oregon...



This post was edited on 1/3 at 9:08 pm


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nf
LSU Fan
Portland, OR
Member since Oct 2012
452 posts

re: Doing LES with more.....


I don't think it matters whether the recruits are under-performing or not (though I think they certainly are, due to bad coaching on the offensive side).

The offense is consistently in the bottom half of the league, it is bad by most every measure. Either Miles is recruiting good players and ruining them or he is recruiting bad players. Either way he is at fault.






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tigercavor
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2006
1388 posts

re: Doing LES with more.....


quote:

based on a hurry up offense


Can you imagine this LSU team playing hurry up offense?

3 and out in less than 15 seconds!






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stho381
LSU Fan
Lafayette, LA
Member since Jan 2012
2627 posts

re: Doing LES with more.....


quote:

Lulz. You really wanna say that a couple of those teams are driving the relationship in all of fbs?



You do realize that the spread is widely used in FBS, right? Almost the entire PAC12, Big 12, B1G, most of the mid-majors, and some of the SEC now are all spread offenses.


The point is, you are saying that Les Miles has done less with more talent.

My rebuttal is that:

1) you are taking recruiting rankings that are skewed too high for LSU because we recruit many highly rated defensive players. For you to have an accurate comparison for offensive recruiting vs offensive production, you can't use defensive recruits. Therefore you would have to recalculate rankings of recruiting classes based on just offensive players, which is damn near impossible

2) You have elected to use total offensive yards as the metric for judging us against the rest of FBS. My response was, yards don't mean anything in total when you have different styles of play. Spread offenses will always be at the top and teams like K-State, Stanford, LSU, Florida who are all successful but focus on running and T.O.P are all at a disadvantage because of style, so again the relationship will be skewed heavily toward the spread offense, hurry up teams , which covers probably 50%+ of CFB.

3) Lastly, who gives a shite about offensive yardage. If we are going to judge Miles, do it on the whole picture. We all know the offensive short-comings of the team. If we want to judge how well we've done as a program under Miles, let's look at the top 10 recruiting classes over the past 4 years and then let's look at the winning% of said teams with those recruiting classes over the past 2 years since that's when those recruits are actually on the field.



This post was edited on 1/3 at 10:02 pm


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TexTiga
LSU Fan
SugarLand , Tx
Member since Oct 2007
2267 posts

re: Doing LES with more.....


You are correct sir.





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CptBengal
USA Fan
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
38334 posts

re: Doing LES with more.....


]
quote:

you are taking recruiting rankings that are skewed too high for LSU because we recruit many highly rated defensive players.


Really? Do other teams have different recruiting rules?
A good coach/recruiter gets talent for both sides of the ball

2) I will complete a multivariate in the morning using all other offensive measures. My hypothesis is you won't like those results either. LSU has neither scored nor had an exceptional TOP to significantly vary those results.

3) lmao. The miles defender argument if choice....answer me how many teams had ten win seasons this year. Then tell me how many of them are psid as much as miles.


Btw. I noticed you avoided the leverage question. Good choice as you would have gotten beat up pretty hard for not even recognizing the underlying pattern in the data.






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