Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) | Page 4 | TigerDroppings.com

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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
22219 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


Got it






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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
22219 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


Russian, I'm trying something new. If it doesn't allow you to edit without signing up let me know.





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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
84427 posts
 Online 

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


Okay.





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LSUtoOmaha
LSU Fan
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
21282 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


quote:

Oil: $87.97
Gold Medal: LSUtoOmaha .03%








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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
22219 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


Still a few days left, bud. Don't count your chickens before they hatch.





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LSUtoOmaha
LSU Fan
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
21282 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


And it's a commodity. I'll probably end up 5% off





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Meauxjeaux
Memphis Fan
I have 89,367 posts with my alters
Member since Jun 2005
17761 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


quote:

Boobie Prize: Tigress


ISWYDT






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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
84427 posts
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re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


Here is an interim status of our predictions. I realize it's a bit hard to read since it is copied and pasted from an Excel file.

"C" is in 1st place overall with an average deviation from actual of 8.24%. For the two posters who did not predict all categories, I disqualified them......because I can.

If anyone sees where I have made an error listing any of your predictions, just post it and I'll correct it.

DJ30 S&P NASDAQ EUR/$ 10yr 30yr Gold Silver Oil
Actual 12/18/12 13,350.69 1,446.79 3,054.53 $1.3223 1.825% 3.008% $1,672.70 $31.685 $87.97
Predictions Avg Deviation
LSURussian 13,250.00 1,310.00 2,950.00 $1.2100 2.871% 4.889% $1,350.00 $25.00 $90.00
% Deviation 0.75% 9.45% 3.42% 8.49% 57.32% 62.53% 19.29% 21.10% 2.308% 20.52%
C 14,000.00 1,430.00 3,100.00 $1.2000 2.000% 3.400% $1,500.00 $25.00 $85.00
% Deviation 4.86% 1.16% 1.49% 9.25% 9.59% 13.03% 10.32% 21.10% 3.38% 8.24%
PlanoPrivateer 12,800.00 1,320.00 2,750.00 $1.2500 2.000% 3.200% $1,400.00 $25.20 $95.00
% Deviation 4.12% 8.76% 9.97% 5.47% 9.59% 6.38% 16.30% 20.47% 7.99% 9.90%
LSUtoOmaha 13,094.62 1,336.95 N/A $1.19 2.006% 3.461% $1,406.70 $24.81 $88.00
% Deviation 1.92% 7.59% N/A 10.16% 9.92% 15.06% 15.90% 21.69% 0.03% N/A
udtiger 11,900.00 1,075.00 2,600.00 $1.09 3.125% 5.000% $2,100.00 $50.00 $170.00
% Deviation 10.87% 25.70% 14.88% 17.57% 71.23% 66.22% 25.55% 57.80% 93.25% 42.56%
goodgrin 12,400.00 1,150.00 2,750.00 $1.19 3.250% 5.500% $2,200.00 $65.00 $115.00
% Deviation 7.12% 20.51% 9.97% 10.01% 78.08% 82.85% 31.52% 105.14% 30.73% 41.77%
Projectpat 11,500.00 1,150.00 2,400.00 $1.10 1.950% 2.950% $1,500.00 $26.00 $130.00
% Deviation 13.86% 20.51% 21.43% 16.81% 6.85% 1.93% 10.32% 17.94% 47.78% 17.49%
Tigress 11,200.00 1,155.00 2,390.00 $1.05 2.000% 3.000% $1,450.00 $19.00 $90.00
% Deviation 16.11% 20.17% 21.76% 20.59% 9.59% 0.27% 13.31% 40.03% 2.308% 16.02%
lynxcat 13,450.00 1,330.00 2,950.00 $1.20 2.100% 3.210% $1,390.00 $24.40 $96.53
% Deviation 0.74% 8.07% 3.42% 9.25% 15.07% 6.72% 16.90% 22.99% 9.73% 10.32%
Chris Farley 13,850.00 1,480.00 3,200.00 $1.10 3.300% 5.200% $1,225.00 $25.00 $95.00
% Deviation 3.74% 2.30% 4.76% 16.81% 80.82% 72.87% 26.77% 21.10% 7.99% 26.35%
The Easter Bunny 13,500.00 1,370.00 2,500.00 $1.105 3.750% 5.150% $1,300.00 $20.00 $98.00
% Deviation 1.12% 5.31% 18.15% 16.43% 105.48% 71.21% 22.28% 36.88% 11.40% 32.03%
LSU0358 13,515.00 1,400.00 2,525.00 $1.40 1.800% 2.800% $2,200.00 $42.00 $140.00
% Deviation 1.23% 3.23% 17.34% 5.88% 1.37% 6.91% 31.52% 32.55% 59.15% 17.69%
gumboPot 13,850.00 1,370.00 3,150.00 $1.23 2.500% 4.500% $2,100.00 $34.00 $110.00
% Deviation 3.74% 5.31% 3.13% 6.98% 36.99% 49.60% 25.55% 7.31% 25.04% 18.18%
Zilla 12,050.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $1,650.00 $38.00 $110.00
% Deviation 9.74% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.36% 19.93% 25.04% N/A

Best Prediction 0.74% 1.16% 1.49% 5.47% 1.37% 0.27% 1.36% 7.31% 0.03% 8.24%
Worst Prediction 16.11% 25.70% 21.76% 20.59% 105.48% 82.85% 31.52% 105.14% 93.25% 42.56%






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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
22219 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


quote:

C" is in 1st place overall










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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
22219 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


The 10 and 30 year bonds really hurt some people.





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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
84427 posts
 Online 

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


quote:

The 10 and 30 year bonds really hurt some people.


Yeah, like me!

I we take those two predictions out, I have an average deviation of 7.04% instead of 20.5%.

Damn Ben Bernanke!






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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
22219 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


I actually found some errors when I put your numbers into a spread sheet. Not great but minor. Ignore the people with 100% numbers...

LSURussian 13,250.00 1,310.00 2,950.00 $1.21 2.87% 4.89% $1,350.00 $25.00 $90
% Deviation 0.75% 9.45% 3.42% 8.49% -57.32% -62.53% 19.29% 21.10% -2.31% 23.69%
C 14,000.00 1,430.00 3,100.00 $1.20 2.00% 3.40% $1,500.00 $25.00 $85.00
% Deviation -4.86% 1.16% -1.49% 9.25% -9.59% -13.03% 10.32% 21.10% 3.38% 8.18%
PlanoPrivateer $12,800.00 1,320.00 2,750.00 $1.25 2.00% 3.20% $1,400.00 $25.20
% Deviation 4.12% 8.76% 9.97% 5.47% -9.59% -6.38% 16.30% 20.47% 100.00% 19.41%
LSUtoOmaha 13,094.62 1,336.95 $1.19 2.01% 3.46% $1,406.70 $24.81 $88.00
% Deviation 1.92% 7.59% 100.00% 10.01% -9.92% -15.06% 15.90% 21.70% -0.03% 20.79%
udtiger 11,900.00 1,075.00 2,600.00 $1.09 3.13% 5.00% $2,100.00 $50.00 $170.00
% Deviation 10.87% 25.70% 14.88% 17.57% -71.23% -66.22% -25.55% -57.80% -93.25% 39.91%
goodgrin 12,400.00 1,150.00 2,750.00 $1.19 3.25% 5.50% $2,200.00 $65.00 $115.00
% Deviation 7.12% 20.51% 9.97% 10.01% -78.08% -82.85% -31.52% -105.14% -30.73% 38.41%
Projectpat 11,500.00 1,150.00 2,400.00 $1.10 1.95% 2.95% $1,500.00 $26.00 $130.00
% Deviation 13.86% 20.51% 21.43% 16.81% -6.85% 1.93% 10.32% 17.94% -47.78% 15.28%
Tigress 11,200.00 1,155.00 2,390.00 $1.05 2.00% 3.00% $1,450.00 $19.00 $90.00
% Deviation 16.11% 20.17% 21.76% 20.59% -9.59% 0.27% 13.31% 40.03% -2.31% 11.51%
lynxcat 13,450.00 1,330.00 2,950.00 $1.20 2.10% 3.21% $1,390.00 $24.40 $96.53
% Deviation -0.74% 8.07% 3.42% 9.25% -15.07% -6.72% 16.90% 22.99% -9.73% 9.97%
ChrisFarley 13,850.00 1,480.00 3,200.00 $1.10 3.30% 5.20% $1,225.00 $25.00 $95
% Deviation -3.74% -2.30% -4.76% 16.81% -80.82% -72.87% 26.77% 21.10% -7.99% 28.83%
The TheEasterBunny 13,500.00 1,370.00 2,500.00 $1.11 3.75% 5.15% $1,300.00 $20.00
% Deviation -1.12% 5.31% 18.15% 16.43% -105.48% -71.21% 22.28% 36.88% 100.00% 41.09%
LSU0358 13,515.00 1,400.00 2,525.00 $1.40 1.80% 2.80% $2,200.00 $42.00 $140.00
% Deviation -1.23% 3.23% 17.34% -5.88% 1.37% 6.91% -31.52% -32.55% -59.15% 19.87%
gumboPot 13,850.00 1,370.00 3,150.00 $1.23 2.50% 4.50% $2,100.00 $34.00 $110.00
% Deviation -3.74% 5.31% -3.13% 6.98% -36.99% -49.60% -25.55% -7.31% -25.04% 16.75%
Zilla 12,050.00 $1,650.00 $38.00 $110.00
% Deviation 9.74% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1.36% -19.93% -25.04% 53.56%






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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
84427 posts
 Online 

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


Could you bold the numbers that are different from mine? Thanks.





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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
84427 posts
 Online 

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


Check your formula for the 'avg deviation' column. Did you use the 'AVG' function for those cells? I did.
Just hand verifying your predictions and mine, I get the same percentages as you do for each category (ignoring the minus sign on your numbers since I made all of the deviations an absolute percent, not plus or minus) but the average deviation numbers are way off.

I think you may have an error in your average deviation cells. Either that or the change in sign affects the average.



This post was edited on 12/19 at 9:59 am


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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
22219 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


n/a


This post was edited on 12/19 at 10:13 am


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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
22219 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


quote:

Did you use the 'AVG' function for those cells?


I used avedev so I didn't have to change the negatives.






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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
22219 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


actually use this link to google spreadsheets. I can keep the formula in this one.

LINK






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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
84427 posts
 Online 

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


That's the difference.

I put an IF function in each individual percent deviation cell testing for a negative number. IF it was negative, I had it change the sign to positive and then used the "AVERAGE" function in the far right column for the average deviation for each person's 9 predictions.

I totaled your predictions' deviation percents (ignoring the sign), and divided by 9 and I got the same thing as the "AVERAGE" function did.

Try that and see what you get.

When I used the AVGDEV function using the same numbers, I got a totally different answer.






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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
22219 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


hmm. I wonder what avgdev function is doing differently?





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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
22219 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


fixed. try now.





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