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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
23184 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)

Got it


C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
23184 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
Russian, I'm trying something new. If it doesn't allow you to edit without signing up let me know.


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
85178 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
Okay.


LSUtoOmaha
LSU Fan
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
21843 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
quote:

Oil: $87.97
Gold Medal: LSUtoOmaha .03%




C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
23184 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
Still a few days left, bud. Don't count your chickens before they hatch.


LSUtoOmaha
LSU Fan
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
21843 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
And it's a commodity. I'll probably end up 5% off


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Meauxjeaux
Memphis Fan
90248 posts including my alters
Member since Jun 2005
19116 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
quote:

Boobie Prize: Tigress


ISWYDT


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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
85178 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
Here is an interim status of our predictions. I realize it's a bit hard to read since it is copied and pasted from an Excel file.

"C" is in 1st place overall with an average deviation from actual of 8.24%. For the two posters who did not predict all categories, I disqualified them......because I can.

If anyone sees where I have made an error listing any of your predictions, just post it and I'll correct it.

DJ30 S&P NASDAQ EUR/$ 10yr 30yr Gold Silver Oil
Actual 12/18/12 13,350.69 1,446.79 3,054.53 $1.3223 1.825% 3.008% $1,672.70 $31.685 $87.97
Predictions Avg Deviation
LSURussian 13,250.00 1,310.00 2,950.00 $1.2100 2.871% 4.889% $1,350.00 $25.00 $90.00
% Deviation 0.75% 9.45% 3.42% 8.49% 57.32% 62.53% 19.29% 21.10% 2.308% 20.52%
C 14,000.00 1,430.00 3,100.00 $1.2000 2.000% 3.400% $1,500.00 $25.00 $85.00
% Deviation 4.86% 1.16% 1.49% 9.25% 9.59% 13.03% 10.32% 21.10% 3.38% 8.24%
PlanoPrivateer 12,800.00 1,320.00 2,750.00 $1.2500 2.000% 3.200% $1,400.00 $25.20 $95.00
% Deviation 4.12% 8.76% 9.97% 5.47% 9.59% 6.38% 16.30% 20.47% 7.99% 9.90%
LSUtoOmaha 13,094.62 1,336.95 N/A $1.19 2.006% 3.461% $1,406.70 $24.81 $88.00
% Deviation 1.92% 7.59% N/A 10.16% 9.92% 15.06% 15.90% 21.69% 0.03% N/A
udtiger 11,900.00 1,075.00 2,600.00 $1.09 3.125% 5.000% $2,100.00 $50.00 $170.00
% Deviation 10.87% 25.70% 14.88% 17.57% 71.23% 66.22% 25.55% 57.80% 93.25% 42.56%
goodgrin 12,400.00 1,150.00 2,750.00 $1.19 3.250% 5.500% $2,200.00 $65.00 $115.00
% Deviation 7.12% 20.51% 9.97% 10.01% 78.08% 82.85% 31.52% 105.14% 30.73% 41.77%
Projectpat 11,500.00 1,150.00 2,400.00 $1.10 1.950% 2.950% $1,500.00 $26.00 $130.00
% Deviation 13.86% 20.51% 21.43% 16.81% 6.85% 1.93% 10.32% 17.94% 47.78% 17.49%
Tigress 11,200.00 1,155.00 2,390.00 $1.05 2.000% 3.000% $1,450.00 $19.00 $90.00
% Deviation 16.11% 20.17% 21.76% 20.59% 9.59% 0.27% 13.31% 40.03% 2.308% 16.02%
lynxcat 13,450.00 1,330.00 2,950.00 $1.20 2.100% 3.210% $1,390.00 $24.40 $96.53
% Deviation 0.74% 8.07% 3.42% 9.25% 15.07% 6.72% 16.90% 22.99% 9.73% 10.32%
Chris Farley 13,850.00 1,480.00 3,200.00 $1.10 3.300% 5.200% $1,225.00 $25.00 $95.00
% Deviation 3.74% 2.30% 4.76% 16.81% 80.82% 72.87% 26.77% 21.10% 7.99% 26.35%
The Easter Bunny 13,500.00 1,370.00 2,500.00 $1.105 3.750% 5.150% $1,300.00 $20.00 $98.00
% Deviation 1.12% 5.31% 18.15% 16.43% 105.48% 71.21% 22.28% 36.88% 11.40% 32.03%
LSU0358 13,515.00 1,400.00 2,525.00 $1.40 1.800% 2.800% $2,200.00 $42.00 $140.00
% Deviation 1.23% 3.23% 17.34% 5.88% 1.37% 6.91% 31.52% 32.55% 59.15% 17.69%
gumboPot 13,850.00 1,370.00 3,150.00 $1.23 2.500% 4.500% $2,100.00 $34.00 $110.00
% Deviation 3.74% 5.31% 3.13% 6.98% 36.99% 49.60% 25.55% 7.31% 25.04% 18.18%
Zilla 12,050.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $1,650.00 $38.00 $110.00
% Deviation 9.74% N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1.36% 19.93% 25.04% N/A

Best Prediction 0.74% 1.16% 1.49% 5.47% 1.37% 0.27% 1.36% 7.31% 0.03% 8.24%
Worst Prediction 16.11% 25.70% 21.76% 20.59% 105.48% 82.85% 31.52% 105.14% 93.25% 42.56%


C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
23184 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
quote:

C" is in 1st place overall






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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
23184 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
The 10 and 30 year bonds really hurt some people.


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
85178 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
quote:

The 10 and 30 year bonds really hurt some people.


Yeah, like me!

I we take those two predictions out, I have an average deviation of 7.04% instead of 20.5%.

Damn Ben Bernanke!


C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
23184 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
I actually found some errors when I put your numbers into a spread sheet. Not great but minor. Ignore the people with 100% numbers...

LSURussian 13,250.00 1,310.00 2,950.00 $1.21 2.87% 4.89% $1,350.00 $25.00 $90
% Deviation 0.75% 9.45% 3.42% 8.49% -57.32% -62.53% 19.29% 21.10% -2.31% 23.69%
C 14,000.00 1,430.00 3,100.00 $1.20 2.00% 3.40% $1,500.00 $25.00 $85.00
% Deviation -4.86% 1.16% -1.49% 9.25% -9.59% -13.03% 10.32% 21.10% 3.38% 8.18%
PlanoPrivateer $12,800.00 1,320.00 2,750.00 $1.25 2.00% 3.20% $1,400.00 $25.20
% Deviation 4.12% 8.76% 9.97% 5.47% -9.59% -6.38% 16.30% 20.47% 100.00% 19.41%
LSUtoOmaha 13,094.62 1,336.95 $1.19 2.01% 3.46% $1,406.70 $24.81 $88.00
% Deviation 1.92% 7.59% 100.00% 10.01% -9.92% -15.06% 15.90% 21.70% -0.03% 20.79%
udtiger 11,900.00 1,075.00 2,600.00 $1.09 3.13% 5.00% $2,100.00 $50.00 $170.00
% Deviation 10.87% 25.70% 14.88% 17.57% -71.23% -66.22% -25.55% -57.80% -93.25% 39.91%
goodgrin 12,400.00 1,150.00 2,750.00 $1.19 3.25% 5.50% $2,200.00 $65.00 $115.00
% Deviation 7.12% 20.51% 9.97% 10.01% -78.08% -82.85% -31.52% -105.14% -30.73% 38.41%
Projectpat 11,500.00 1,150.00 2,400.00 $1.10 1.95% 2.95% $1,500.00 $26.00 $130.00
% Deviation 13.86% 20.51% 21.43% 16.81% -6.85% 1.93% 10.32% 17.94% -47.78% 15.28%
Tigress 11,200.00 1,155.00 2,390.00 $1.05 2.00% 3.00% $1,450.00 $19.00 $90.00
% Deviation 16.11% 20.17% 21.76% 20.59% -9.59% 0.27% 13.31% 40.03% -2.31% 11.51%
lynxcat 13,450.00 1,330.00 2,950.00 $1.20 2.10% 3.21% $1,390.00 $24.40 $96.53
% Deviation -0.74% 8.07% 3.42% 9.25% -15.07% -6.72% 16.90% 22.99% -9.73% 9.97%
ChrisFarley 13,850.00 1,480.00 3,200.00 $1.10 3.30% 5.20% $1,225.00 $25.00 $95
% Deviation -3.74% -2.30% -4.76% 16.81% -80.82% -72.87% 26.77% 21.10% -7.99% 28.83%
The TheEasterBunny 13,500.00 1,370.00 2,500.00 $1.11 3.75% 5.15% $1,300.00 $20.00
% Deviation -1.12% 5.31% 18.15% 16.43% -105.48% -71.21% 22.28% 36.88% 100.00% 41.09%
LSU0358 13,515.00 1,400.00 2,525.00 $1.40 1.80% 2.80% $2,200.00 $42.00 $140.00
% Deviation -1.23% 3.23% 17.34% -5.88% 1.37% 6.91% -31.52% -32.55% -59.15% 19.87%
gumboPot 13,850.00 1,370.00 3,150.00 $1.23 2.50% 4.50% $2,100.00 $34.00 $110.00
% Deviation -3.74% 5.31% -3.13% 6.98% -36.99% -49.60% -25.55% -7.31% -25.04% 16.75%
Zilla 12,050.00 $1,650.00 $38.00 $110.00
% Deviation 9.74% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 1.36% -19.93% -25.04% 53.56%


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
85178 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
Could you bold the numbers that are different from mine? Thanks.


LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
85178 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
Check your formula for the 'avg deviation' column. Did you use the 'AVG' function for those cells? I did.
Just hand verifying your predictions and mine, I get the same percentages as you do for each category (ignoring the minus sign on your numbers since I made all of the deviations an absolute percent, not plus or minus) but the average deviation numbers are way off.

I think you may have an error in your average deviation cells. Either that or the change in sign affects the average.
This post was edited on 12/19 at 9:59 am


C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
23184 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
n/a
This post was edited on 12/19 at 10:13 am


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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
23184 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
quote:

Did you use the 'AVG' function for those cells?


I used avedev so I didn't have to change the negatives.


C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
23184 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
actually use this link to google spreadsheets. I can keep the formula in this one.

LINK


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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2005
85178 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
That's the difference.

I put an IF function in each individual percent deviation cell testing for a negative number. IF it was negative, I had it change the sign to positive and then used the "AVERAGE" function in the far right column for the average deviation for each person's 9 predictions.

I totaled your predictions' deviation percents (ignoring the sign), and divided by 9 and I got the same thing as the "AVERAGE" function did.

Try that and see what you get.

When I used the AVGDEV function using the same numbers, I got a totally different answer.


C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
23184 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
hmm. I wonder what avgdev function is doing differently?


C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
23184 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
fixed. try now.


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