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BennyAndTheInkJets 
Arkansas Fan
NYC
Member since Nov 2010
2794 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 5/14/12 at 1:21 pm to LSURussian)
The update really puts a lot of stuff in perspective. Equities rallied, steeper curve but lower on the 10-year. Oil lower, gold lower, silver higher, and lower Euro.
This further proves one thing that most people are aware of. Equities are priced on unicorns and rainbows.
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C 
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
17398 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 10:13 am to LSURussian)
Sorry to bump prematurely, but how is this going to be judged?
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bunky
LSU Fan
FREE EL GUACHO
Member since Jul 2011
4347 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 10:15 am to C)
I'd vote for average % error. Full disclosure: I have no skin in the game.
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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
17398 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 10:27 am to bunky)
Is each section weighted equally as well?
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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
63203 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 10:57 am to C)
quote:
Sorry to bump prematurely, but how is this going to be judged?
Take over. Use any metric you'd like to use. 
ETA: It seems fair to me if we had a winner for each of the individual predictions using a percent deviation from actual 12/31/12 prices (levels) to the predicted figure.
I suppose an overall winner could be determined using the average percentage deviation from actual for all of the components. I'll set up a spreadsheet to do that. If anyone has a better idea, go for it.
This post was edited on 12/18 at 11:06 am
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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
17398 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 11:16 am to LSURussian)
quote:
If anyone has a better idea,
not me. Thanks.
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Meauxjeaux 
Memphis Fan
I have 91k posts with all my alters
Member since Jun 2005
12998 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 11:19 am to LSURussian)
quote:
ETA: Note my post count. I saved it for the Money Talk Board.
I sure hope it wasn't 10,000! 
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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
63203 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 11:21 am to Meauxjeaux)
It was 50,000.
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Meauxjeaux
Memphis Fan
I have 91k posts with all my alters
Member since Jun 2005
12998 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 11:24 am to LSURussian)
Lol, haven't seen that benchmark very often. BTW, your dow is almost to the penny spot on.. 
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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
63203 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 12:28 pm to Meauxjeaux)
If these were the market indices year end closing levels as of this minute, I'd win the DJ30 at +0.65% deviation. Lynxcat would be 2nd at -0.85%.
On the 10yr bond rate, LSU0358 has nailed it so far. He predicted 1.80% and as of this minute it is.....drumroll, please......1.80%! ZERO deviation!
As of now, the largest deviation from actual (any category) is The Easter Bunny on the 10 yr rate. He predicted 3.75% for a deviation of 108.33%. Second highest deviation is goodgrin on the price of silver. He predicted $65.00 and the actual this minute is $31.86 for a deviation of -104.02%.
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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
17398 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 12:33 pm to LSURussian)
I guess we aren't playing "price is right" rules. Can you put the spreadsheet in google to share?
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Tmacelroy12
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Aug 2012
5489 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 12:34 pm to LSURussian)
Yeah, I didn't expect 10yr bond rates to change all that much with the Fed buying so much debt and keeping interest rates low.
PS, your Dow estimate is scarily accurate.
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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
63203 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 12:57 pm to C)
quote:
Can you put the spreadsheet in google to share?
Sure. How do I do that?
quote:
I guess we aren't playing "price is right" rules.
I think the absolute deviation from actual would be most accurate way.
I need to change my spreadsheet to put all percentages in a positive number regardless of if the prediction is over or under the actual and then take the average deviation for each person.
A +10% and a -10% deviation would average to a 0% total deviation but it should be a 10% average deviation, IMO.
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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
17398 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 1:14 pm to LSURussian)
quote:
Sure. How do I do that?
google documents, share. I can't access at work but I'll do it when i get home if no one jumps in before then.
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LSU0358
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2005
4584 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 1:40 pm to LSURussian)
quote:
On the 10yr bond rate, LSU0358 has nailed it so far. He predicted 1.80% and as of this minute it is.....drumroll, please......1.80%! ZERO deviation!
Thanks. My S&P and Dow is looking nice so far as well.
My commodity guesses, not so much. Though I think 2013 will be interesting. As a disclaimer, I bought some gold today.
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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
63203 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 4:21 pm to C)
It appears I have to have a Google account and sign in under it in order to place a spreadsheet on the share site. Is that correct?
If so, it's not going to happen. I don't put anything on Google except my searches.
For anyone who wants the spreadsheet, I can email it to you. Just give me your email address.
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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
63203 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 6:02 pm to LSURussian)
Here are some highlights of the "Predict the Prices" as of the close of trading today, 12/18/12.
All percentages shown are the % deviations from the poster's prediction to the closing prices today.
DJ30: 13,350.69
Gold Medal: Lynxcat .74%
Silver Medal: LSURussian .75%
Bronze Medal: The Easter Bunny 1.12%
Boobie Prize: Tigress 16.11%
Oil: $87.97
Gold Medal: LSUtoOmaha .03%
Silver Medal: (TIE) LSURussian & Tigress 2.38%
Boobie Prize: udtiger 93.25%
10 year t-bond rate: 1.825%
Gold Medal: LSU0358 1.37%
Silver Medal: Projectpat 6.85%
Bronze Medal: (TIE) C, PlanoPrivateer, Tigress 9.59%
Boobie Prize: The Easter Bunny 105.48%
I'll give the final, complete results after 12.31.12.
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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
17398 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 6:37 pm to LSURussian)
You don't have to have an account to use the document, just one to create I think. I'll create one in in a few minutes. Do you want me to send it to you or just post a link to it here? Just be aware if I put it on here, anyone can manipulate it. So I may lock it down after you post the data. Alternatively you can email it to me and I'll just add it. Let me know before I post my email.
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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
63203 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 6:42 pm to C)
I tried to put the spreadsheet I made onto the docs page but couldn't figure out how to do it without signing in.
Walk me through the process for a non-member to place a .xls file on it and I'll do it.
This post was edited on 12/18 at 7:01 pm
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foshizzle
LSU Fan
Member since Mar 2008
25097 posts
| re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) (Posted on 12/18/12 at 6:44 pm to foshizzle)
quote:
ETA: I predict that on 12/31/2012 my post count will still not be that high.
I was 100% correct. 
Or will be. Whatever.
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