Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6) - Page 3 - TigerDroppings.com

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BennyAndTheInkJets
Arkansas Fan
NYC
Member since Nov 2010
3831 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


The update really puts a lot of stuff in perspective. Equities rallied, steeper curve but lower on the 10-year. Oil lower, gold lower, silver higher, and lower Euro.

This further proves one thing that most people are aware of. Equities are priced on unicorns and rainbows.







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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
21107 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


Sorry to bump prematurely, but how is this going to be judged?





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bunky
LSU Fan
FREE EL GUACHO
Member since Jul 2011
4471 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


I'd vote for average % error. Full disclosure: I have no skin in the game.





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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
21107 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


Is each section weighted equally as well?





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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
80165 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


quote:

Sorry to bump prematurely, but how is this going to be judged?


Take over. Use any metric you'd like to use.

ETA: It seems fair to me if we had a winner for each of the individual predictions using a percent deviation from actual 12/31/12 prices (levels) to the predicted figure.

I suppose an overall winner could be determined using the average percentage deviation from actual for all of the components. I'll set up a spreadsheet to do that. If anyone has a better idea, go for it.



This post was edited on 12/18 at 11:06 am


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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
21107 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


quote:

If anyone has a better idea,


not me. Thanks.






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Meauxjeaux
Memphis Fan
I have 89,275 posts with my alters
Member since Jun 2005
16331 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


quote:

ETA: Note my post count. I saved it for the Money Talk Board.


I sure hope it wasn't 10,000!






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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
80165 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


It was 50,000.





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Meauxjeaux
Memphis Fan
I have 89,275 posts with my alters
Member since Jun 2005
16331 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


Lol, haven't seen that benchmark very often. BTW, your dow is almost to the penny spot on..





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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
80165 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


If these were the market indices year end closing levels as of this minute, I'd win the DJ30 at +0.65% deviation. Lynxcat would be 2nd at -0.85%.

On the 10yr bond rate, LSU0358 has nailed it so far. He predicted 1.80% and as of this minute it is.....drumroll, please......1.80%! ZERO deviation!

As of now, the largest deviation from actual (any category) is The Easter Bunny on the 10 yr rate. He predicted 3.75% for a deviation of 108.33%. Second highest deviation is goodgrin on the price of silver. He predicted $65.00 and the actual this minute is $31.86 for a deviation of -104.02%.







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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
21107 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


I guess we aren't playing "price is right" rules. Can you put the spreadsheet in google to share?





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Tmacelroy12
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Aug 2012
5489 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


Yeah, I didn't expect 10yr bond rates to change all that much with the Fed buying so much debt and keeping interest rates low.

PS, your Dow estimate is scarily accurate.






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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
80165 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


quote:

Can you put the spreadsheet in google to share?

Sure. How do I do that?

quote:

I guess we aren't playing "price is right" rules.
I think the absolute deviation from actual would be most accurate way.

I need to change my spreadsheet to put all percentages in a positive number regardless of if the prediction is over or under the actual and then take the average deviation for each person.

A +10% and a -10% deviation would average to a 0% total deviation but it should be a 10% average deviation, IMO.






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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
21107 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


quote:

Sure. How do I do that?


google documents, share. I can't access at work but I'll do it when i get home if no one jumps in before then.






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LSU0358
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2005
5086 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


quote:

On the 10yr bond rate, LSU0358 has nailed it so far. He predicted 1.80% and as of this minute it is.....drumroll, please......1.80%! ZERO deviation!


Thanks. My S&P and Dow is looking nice so far as well.

My commodity guesses, not so much. Though I think 2013 will be interesting. As a disclaimer, I bought some gold today.






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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
80165 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


It appears I have to have a Google account and sign in under it in order to place a spreadsheet on the share site. Is that correct?

If so, it's not going to happen. I don't put anything on Google except my searches.

For anyone who wants the spreadsheet, I can email it to you. Just give me your email address.






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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
80165 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


Here are some highlights of the "Predict the Prices" as of the close of trading today, 12/18/12.

All percentages shown are the % deviations from the poster's prediction to the closing prices today.

DJ30: 13,350.69
Gold Medal: Lynxcat .74%
Silver Medal: LSURussian .75%
Bronze Medal: The Easter Bunny 1.12%
Boobie Prize: Tigress 16.11%



Oil: $87.97
Gold Medal: LSUtoOmaha .03%
Silver Medal: (TIE) LSURussian & Tigress 2.38%
Boobie Prize: udtiger 93.25%

10 year t-bond rate: 1.825%
Gold Medal: LSU0358 1.37%
Silver Medal: Projectpat 6.85%
Bronze Medal: (TIE) C, PlanoPrivateer, Tigress 9.59%
Boobie Prize: The Easter Bunny 105.48%

I'll give the final, complete results after 12.31.12.






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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
21107 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


You don't have to have an account to use the document, just one to create I think. I'll create one in in a few minutes. Do you want me to send it to you or just post a link to it here? Just be aware if I put it on here, anyone can manipulate it. So I may lock it down after you post the data. Alternatively you can email it to me and I'll just add it. Let me know before I post my email.





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LSURussian
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2005
80165 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


I tried to put the spreadsheet I made onto the docs page but couldn't figure out how to do it without signing in.

Walk me through the process for a non-member to place a .xls file on it and I'll do it.




This post was edited on 12/18 at 7:01 pm


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foshizzle
LSU Fan
Washington DC metro
Member since Mar 2008
29645 posts

re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)


quote:

ETA: I predict that on 12/31/2012 my post count will still not be that high.


I was 100% correct.

Or will be. Whatever.






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