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PhillyTide 
Alabama Fan
Philly
Member since Oct 2011
164 posts
| Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/12/12 at 7:37 am)
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TheIndulger 
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Sep 2011
4839 posts
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/12/12 at 9:26 am to PhillyTide)
If you buy it now, when are you supposed to sell it?
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PhillyTide
Alabama Fan
Philly
Member since Oct 2011
164 posts
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/12/12 at 9:43 am to TheIndulger)
quote:
If you buy it now, when are you supposed to sell it?
Selling is a hard part of investing, but I generally like to use stop losses.
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TheHiddenFlask 
Clemson Fan
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
16420 posts
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/12/12 at 9:44 am to TheIndulger)
Technicals are dumb.
This stock is melting down in the same way it melted up. Bulls are getting destroyed and no one knows how much leverage these funds had on AAPL.
I have been a bear on the stock for way too long to claim any moral victory about it, but AAPL being the most valuable company in the US is the most absurd thing since the Nikkei at 100k. Why anyone would own AAPL over XOM, given the same valuation is completely and totally perplexing to me.
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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
17525 posts
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/12/12 at 3:40 pm to TheHiddenFlask)
quote:
Why anyone would own AAPL over XOM, given the same valuation is completely and totally perplexing to me.
I agree long term, but when a company is sitting on cash equal to +20% of their value I think it's difficult to see the price being much lower as their earnings continue to rise.
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TheHiddenFlask
Clemson Fan
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
16420 posts
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/12/12 at 3:51 pm to C)
quote:
but when a company is sitting on cash equal to +20% of their value
It is a great point that 20% of thier value was cash. However, I discount that amount because I don't trust companies stockpiling cash. If you can't put it back in the ground, just start paying a dividend.
quote:
I think it's difficult to see the price being much lower as their earnings continue to rise.
That last assumption is VERY dangerous. MARGIN COMPRESSION will be the pitfall for AAPL's valuation as soon as they go 4 or 5 years without completely changing the landscape of the technological world.
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Fat Bastard 
New Orleans Saints Fan
Paradise
Member since Mar 2009
13671 posts
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/12/12 at 4:43 pm to TheHiddenFlask)
quote:
Technicals are dumb.
not on futures contracts 
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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
17525 posts
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/12/12 at 5:35 pm to TheHiddenFlask)
That's not an assumption, that's a fact that their earnings have risen. And they have started to pay a pretty nice dividend. As much as I love XOM, they are having their own troubles finding new sources of oil.
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lighter345
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2009
8455 posts
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/12/12 at 5:41 pm to C)
This post was edited on 12/12 at 6:37 pm
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RickAstley
LSU Fan
Reno, Nevada
Member since May 2011
1306 posts
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/14/12 at 1:57 pm to PhillyTide)
You still thinking about buying AAPL? It is a little cheaper today
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TheHiddenFlask
Clemson Fan
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
16420 posts
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/14/12 at 2:06 pm to C)
quote:
That's not an assumption, that's a fact that their earnings have risen. And they have started to pay a pretty nice dividend.
They have, but your use of the phrase "continue to" alluded, at least somewhat, to the future, in my eyes.
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PhillyTide
Alabama Fan
Philly
Member since Oct 2011
164 posts
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/14/12 at 3:43 pm to RickAstley)
quote:
You still thinking about buying AAPL? It is a little cheaper today
Actually, I bought it under 80.
But yes, I would buy it today if I didn't already own it.
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TheHiddenFlask
Clemson Fan
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
16420 posts
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/14/12 at 4:19 pm to PhillyTide)
Do you guys remember the days when the largest public companies in the world didn't trade like penny stocks?
I'm a very hardened bear on AAPL, but this is truly absurd.
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jso0003 
Auburn Fan
Birmingham/Atlanta
Member since Jun 2009
4469 posts
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/14/12 at 6:56 pm to TheHiddenFlask)
The annoying thing about trying to value AAPL is there has never BEEN a public company this large and in this volatile of a sector so you fall into the trap of deciding is this a new paradigm or a bubble waiting to burst...
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gatorsimz 
Florida Fan
cafe risque
Member since Feb 2009
5261 posts
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/14/12 at 9:46 pm to jso0003)
I like AAPL and would not second guess anyone buying it right now because I think it's a good value. However, I'm somewhat bearish on stocks at the moment and too big a pansy to buy.
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TheHiddenFlask
Clemson Fan
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
16420 posts
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/14/12 at 10:38 pm to gatorsimz)
From a behavioral finance theory: could this be due to the impending fiscal cliff?
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matthew25 
Ole Miss Fan
Member since Jun 2012
1677 posts
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/15/12 at 12:07 am to TheHiddenFlask)
I think the drop has more to do with the maps and the incessant giggling at Google.
This stock is not for me at this price. If I bought just 250 shares @$500, that would be $125,000. Way too much risk for my money.
On the other hand, a P/E of 8.8 is terrific. It could just as easily head back to 700 with the next product.
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Scoop
LSU Fan
Mean LaQueefa
Member since Sep 2005
24788 posts
 Online
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/15/12 at 1:39 am to TheHiddenFlask)
Remember a few years ago when Apple was $250 and I told all of you that it was about to enter it's Golden Age and to buy?
I was treated like a joke even though my analysis was spot on.
Hidden Flask would have a yacht called Scoop had he listened to me riding Apple to $700.
Here is your next chance, Hidden Flask, oracle for anyone that wants to read tech trends poorly:
While disturbing, Apple's recent volatility has NOTHING to do with performance of the company. It's unnerving trying to find the bottom of this unjustified slide. If you can find it, you are going to make alot of fricking money.
Much of it is end of the year money being moved around.
Find the bottom and buy that boat.
The Maps flap was horse shite hype. Every major iOS device release has to have some manufactured major flaw. It is predictable. The exec reorganization was a great move. Jony Ive is the most valuable exec in the world and him being in charge of hardware and interface is going to be monumental.
Make fun of me like you did back in the day so I can l can copy and paste it later.
Nothing you are seeing with Apple stock now is real and starting the first of the year it will correct.
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LSUsCRYSTALball
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2012
1697 posts
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/15/12 at 1:40 am to PhillyTide)
Should have bought it 5 yrs ago
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TheHiddenFlask
Clemson Fan
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
16420 posts
| re: Time to buy some AAPL? (Posted on 12/15/12 at 7:03 am to Scoop)
Your analysis was shite back then and the stock going up did not change that.
Your analysis here is just as shitty as it was back then "you're going to make a lot of money because it will go up". At the time, I stated that there were a lot of good cases that could be made for AAPL, but you just didn't make them.
As far as "missing the boat", I'm not mad about that either. My portfolio has outpaced AAPL pretty substantially.
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