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memphstigers23 
Ole Miss Fan
Fenway Pahk
Member since Mar 2012
10278 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/4/12 at 3:20 pm to SDVTiger)
quote:
Yeah that Blazing 5 that would be 3-1 if Walsh didnt miss a 20yd fg or ponder throwing 3 picks in the endzone.
You can make excuses for every bet that loses...
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SDVTiger 
UCLA Fan
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
1958 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/4/12 at 3:22 pm to memphstigers23)
quote:
You can make excuses for every bet that loses..
Really?
Just stating that the guy was on the right side. Dogsheet happens thats part of it.
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Carson123987 
LSU Fan
Middle Court at The Rec
Member since Jul 2011
23048 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/4/12 at 3:22 pm to memphstigers23)
exactly 
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memphstigers23
Ole Miss Fan
Fenway Pahk
Member since Mar 2012
10278 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/4/12 at 3:26 pm to Carson123987)
I think I'll do holes ML experiment. I don't like bball spreads Because it seems like more times than not, you get Moosed out of a cover
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SDVTiger
UCLA Fan
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
1958 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/4/12 at 3:28 pm to memphstigers23)
quote:
holes ML experiment.
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Chef Leppard
Savannah State Fan
:TrillStrong:
Member since Sep 2011
4931 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/4/12 at 4:38 pm to Biff Tannen)
Hey. Rookie question as far as teasers go. And dont fricking tease me, im sensitive
In a game like Thurs night, where i had already planned to lock the Denver -3.5 U56.5 (my site doesnt do 8pt) Would it not be smarter to turn toward the home dog in a situation like that?
I mean, i dont care if the raiders were playing a pro bowl team, I would feel obligated to take them getting 18.5 pts at home
Like I said before, Ive always just done simple bets with a local guy. I havent started playing around with these teasers and small parlays till this year
This post was edited on 12/4 at 4:39 pm
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bamafan425 
Alabama Fan
Freeman Hugs
Member since Jan 2009
9905 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/4/12 at 4:44 pm to Chef Leppard)
It's up to you. A lot of sharper guys on twitter only like to take dogs in teasers.
It's one of those things, do you feel more confident in Raiders cover 18.5 or Denvers -3.5?
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Biff Tannen
Member since Sep 2012
1352 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/4/12 at 5:38 pm to Chef Leppard)
quote:
And dont fricking tease me, im sensitive
LuLz
new sig quote
quote:
In a game like Thurs night, where i had already planned to lock the Denver -3.5 U56.5 (my site doesnt do 8pt) Would it not be smarter to turn toward the home dog in a situation like that?
they don't let you buy a point? (read on of my last posts for an explanation)
quote:
I mean, i dont care if the raiders were playing a pro bowl team, I would feel obligated to take them getting 18.5 pts at home
excellent point, but they're turrible.. wouldn't be surprised if Peyton goes batman all over their silver and black clown asses
quote:
Like I said before, Ive always just done simple bets with a local guy. I havent started playing around with these teasers and small parlays till this year
i should have just told you to ask 425, he is way better than me at analyzing teasers
but let's try to break this game down real quick
Peyton=Christian Bale=Batman>Raiders whole team=Superman
get it?
got it?
good
This post was edited on 12/4 at 5:45 pm
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Carson123987
LSU Fan
Middle Court at The Rec
Member since Jul 2011
23048 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/4/12 at 5:45 pm to Chef Leppard)
quote:
Would it not be smarter to turn toward the home dog in a situation like that?
Do both. Thats what I did for SNF. Took Dal -2.5 and Phi +18 with O35.5
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Chef Leppard
Savannah State Fan
:TrillStrong:
Member since Sep 2011
4931 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/4/12 at 5:52 pm to Biff Tannen)
My site has I think 3, 6, and 7 pt teasers.
You can do a 10pt teaser but not on multiple bets within a single game.
With McFadden coming back, I do think Oakland has enough in them for two TDs anyway. Palmer has been avg over 300yds a game.
That being said, the pressure would be on Denver to score 32 pts on the road in somewhat of a rivalry game
Just wondering what is the safer play in a game where the spread is already DD
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bamafan425
Alabama Fan
Freeman Hugs
Member since Jan 2009
9905 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/4/12 at 5:53 pm to Chef Leppard)
I think Raiders +18.5 would be my play. Takes a lot in the NFL for a 20 point blowout.
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GHAZI
Dallas Mavs 2011 NBA Champions
Member since Dec 2007
14796 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/5/12 at 8:02 am to bamafan425)
True, but the Raiders have lost by 21+ 3 of the last 5 games.
I'm backing Denver -9.5 despite the 23-2 ATS trend of home dogs of 8+ over last 3 years.
Oakland's defense is miserable. in this 5 game losing streak, allowing over 7 yards per play (unheard of in NFL, college like statistic) and 38 PPG...they have absolutely no pass rush whatsoever... this was a reason I backed Denver against TB and covered (only by 1 point, but only due to backdoor was it so close). Oakland made Weeden look like Brady last week, and can't stop the run either (recall Martin's 250 yard rushing performance). All metrics indicate Oakland is the worst team in the NFL right now.
Oakland's offense hovers in the below average-average area, I don't think McFadden makes much of a difference. Palmer's having an okay year, but Denver has an elite defense and especially an elite pass rush.
I expect Manning to shred this defense. 30/38 for 338 yards in the last meeting, a 37-6 win.
I think Broncos win by 14-17 points and cover. Oakland only keeps this close with a lucky day as far as turnovers/penalties. REALLY bad football team.
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bamafan425
Alabama Fan
Freeman Hugs
Member since Jan 2009
9905 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/5/12 at 12:25 pm to GHAZI)
Tailing BTB. He went 9-1 last weekend.
Raiders +10.5
Titans +6
Jags +3
Rams +3
Saints +5
Texans +4
Seahawks/Bucs Teaser
Also on Lions +7. Gonna wait and see if I can get that without paying juice.
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HoLeInOnEr05 
Auburn Fan
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
12053 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/5/12 at 12:45 pm to bamafan425)
Damn, you need some doggy biscuits or something?
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bamafan425
Alabama Fan
Freeman Hugs
Member since Jan 2009
9905 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/5/12 at 12:47 pm to HoLeInOnEr05)
Just tailing. He's been pretty stout this year.
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WRedmondsStang
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2012
153 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/5/12 at 2:11 pm to bamafan425)
BTB was also on Panthers, any reason why you left them out. If you are gonna tail, be all in.
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bamafan425
Alabama Fan
Freeman Hugs
Member since Jan 2009
9905 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/5/12 at 2:18 pm to WRedmondsStang)
I musta missed it off my list. Fully plan on tailing him all the way.
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Biff Tannen
Member since Sep 2012
1352 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/5/12 at 2:34 pm to bamafan425)
quote:
Raiders +10.5
Titans +6
Jags +3
Rams +3
Saints +5
Texans +4
Seahawks/Bucs Teaser
Also on Lions +7. Gonna wait and see if I can get that without paying juice.
i hate taking dogs, especially road dogs
i don't tail anybody, becuase if i'm going to lose i want it to be on my own accord
that being said, i like almost everyone of those plays..
especially Texans, Saints, Titans and Rams
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TJG210
LSU Fan
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2006
18444 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/5/12 at 2:57 pm to Biff Tannen)
Posted this earlier, but wanted the experts opinion in here......getting down to the nitty gritty in my survivor league....I think my best options this week are:
Denver
Tampa Bay
San Francisco
I'm leaning heavy with Denver, though I hate taking a road team in a division game even with a giant talent disparity. Anyone want to make me feel better about this pick? Also about 75% of the remaining folks have used Denver already, so I should be in some pretty tight company.
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Carson123987
LSU Fan
Middle Court at The Rec
Member since Jul 2011
23048 posts
| re: NFL Betting Thread Week 14 (Posted on 12/5/12 at 3:02 pm to Biff Tannen)
Raiders up to 11.5. Will probably take it.
Titans +5 is meh. I don't like Tenn on the road.
Jags +2.5 is meh
Rams and Saints are nice. Brees is going to abuse that shitty nyg secondary
I kinda like Arizona +11.5
not touching houston
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