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SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
37064 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)

quote:

Cliff would be proud


haha....

Professor Ji-Chai Lin would be proud. Cliff would try to use it to make money somehow! And I'd let him.


lsu2006
USA Fan
BR
Member since Feb 2004
19818 posts
Online

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)
Awesome stuff.

What do you do for a living, if you don't mind me asking? This seems pretty time-consuming.

What kind of background do you have in statistics, particularly sports statistics? Just wondering how someone can become so immersed and seemingly proficient in this, it's fascinating, really.

Also, I'm a bit curious about your connections to LSU hoops. I've always been impressed with your in-depth knowledge of the team, to go with a passion for the program that it desperately needs.


SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
37064 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)

quote:

What do you do for a living, if you don't mind me asking? This seems pretty time-consuming.


I do some accounting work for a construction company. I am a very quick and efficient worker. When I work, I work my arse off, when I don't work, I do things like this. I was able to do this pretty quickly. I already keep spreadsheets of stats so its just copy and pasting formulas to make this work.


quote:

What kind of background do you have in statistics, particularly sports statistics? Just wondering how someone can become so immersed and seemingly proficient in this, it's fascinating, really.


I have a bs and ms in finance. I took 2 PhD classes when I was thinking about getting my PhD in finance; financial research and math for economist. Both of these really helped my skills in statistics and using equations.

quote:

Also, I'm a bit curious about your connections to LSU hoops. I've always been impressed with your in-depth knowledge of the team, to go with a passion for the program that it desperately needs.



My late father and I would go to games since I can remember. I continued my love. In 2007 (Spring of my Freshman year) I worked at the PMAC setting up and tearing down for basketball games. Besides that, I have always loved stats. People can see whatever they want about players, but stats do not lie. So using stats has been something thatI have always loved.

This post was edited on 11/28 at 2:58 pm


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ProjectP2294
Penn Fan
South St. Louis city
Member since May 2007
33110 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)
quote:

No hockey assists. While the pass before the pass can be important, I decided it did not need to be included... (I know this is a joke; but still)

It wasn't completely a joke. I just recently learned about teams tracking hockey stats for basketball, so that's why I asked.

It was kind of a joke because you factor in so much else that it would probably get cumbersome if you tried to put it in there.


SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
37064 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)
quote:

It wasn't completely a joke. I just recently learned about teams tracking hockey stats for basketball, so that's why I asked.

It was kind of a joke because you factor in so much else that it would probably get cumbersome if you tried to put it in there.



Sometimes you get the best explanation out of simplicity.


GeismarGeauxer
LSU Fan
Geismar
Member since Dec 2009
2109 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)
Looking for the updated #s...

I guess ludwigs don't change as he didn't start and got 0
min.

Tuba started but didn't ever come back. Thinking he wasn't effective during pt.

Carmouche had 7 assists? Wow...

I think in crunch time you will only see combos of these guys:
Hickey
Stringer
Carmouche
Morgan
Hammink
Coleman
JOB


Hat Tricks
LSU Fan
Natchitoches, LA
Member since Oct 2003
22452 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


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Harry Caray
USA Fan
Astros 2016 AL West Champs
Member since Aug 2009
14188 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)
quote:

I think in crunch time you will only see combos of these guys:
Hickey
Stringer
Carmouche
Morgan
Hammink
Coleman
JOB


exactly. depth is going to really hurt us in the SEC schedule with only 7 "legit" players. Maybe courtney and Collins can help out, but they really don't deserve significant PT.


Beau Tie
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2012
951 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)
1) I never knew you were that smart.
2) you must be a huge basketball fan.
3) thought about getting paid for this like moneyball?


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oauron
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Sep 2011
10804 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)
Courtney looked pretty good playing press D at the end of the game.


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SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
37064 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


Russianblue
LSU Fan
Charlotte, NC
Member since Nov 2007
322 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)
This is golden. I don't like the name. sos sounds too much like strength of schedule. How about StatOS Rating? It isn't as exact as an acronym, but has better legs w regard to branding.


Chris Warner
LSU Fan
Perdido Bay
Member since Jan 2009
424 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)
Sound methodology.
You should contact the guy that wrote the book, "Bringing down the House" about the MIT Vegas card-counting team.

At the end of the book he reveals his true identity and the fact that he uses his math to develop statistical and mathematical models to rate players.

I can only wonder if he has seen your presentation or a similar variation.

Again, your logic is sound and the time coefficient is a neat trick for valuing on the court worth.

I enjoy your posts. LSU basketball is definitely on the rise.


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SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
37064 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)
quote:

This is golden. I don't like the name. sos sounds too much like strength of schedule. How about StatOS Rating? It isn't as exact as an acronym, but has better legs w regard to branding.


Well it is really just cause that's what people on here call me. Its a self-named rating system. I kinda used a play on words that made sense calling it score on stats cause basically that's what it is, but it's really just because my South of South pinname.


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Eighteen
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2006
17154 posts
Online

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)
quote:

This is golden. I don't like the name. sos sounds too much like strength of schedule.


I agree with this guy

great work, but it's going to look like Strength of Schedule to everyone...I thought that's what it was going to be when I clicked on the thread

This is freaking awesome, though. Can't wait to see it updated throughout the season
This post was edited on 11/30 at 8:34 am


BigEdLSU
Southern Fan
All around the South
Member since Sep 2010
13434 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)
I really enjoy and appreciate your posts. Keep em coming.

Btw, did you think of this yourself? I could see it becoming an accepted major metric frankly.


Eighteen
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2006
17154 posts
Online

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)
It reminds me of the NBA Efficiency formula they use on NBA.com

quote:

NBA.com evaluates all players based on the efficiency formula: ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field Goals Att. - Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. - Free Throws Made) + Turnovers)).


LINK

Maybe you could plug this formula into your excel sheet too, so we can see what it would look like using the NBA formula to college players (although I think your rating is actually superior)


SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
37064 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)
quote:

Btw, did you think of this yourself? I could see it becoming an accepted major metric frankly.


Yea. When I was in my financial research class and started learning what economist and financial experts used equations for it made me realize how far their worth can go. I have wanted to put something together for a while and I finally did it.

Math is a very special science that can be used in all sorts of nerdy ways.


BigEdLSU
Southern Fan
All around the South
Member since Sep 2010
13434 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)
What's the derivative of the square root of the reciprocal of your SoS rating? Honestly that's all I care about.

Then multiply Rummy's paycheck by epsilon.


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SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
37064 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)
quote:

NBA.com evaluates all players based on the efficiency formula: ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field Goals Att. - Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. - Free Throws Made) + Turnovers)).


The main problem I have with NBA's PER is that it gives too much bias to players who are scorers. To count a block as the same value as a single point is crazy to me. Similar with steals. It doesn't give credit where credit is due. There are so many instances where the easiest part of the play was the layup due to a great pass, but the shooter gets 2 points and the great pass only gets 1.


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