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SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
25319 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


quote:

So based on this, we should start:
Hickey
Morgan
Coleman
JOB
Tuba

and see less of
Courtney (not seeing much anyway)
Collins (ditto)
Ludwig (please stop starting him)


While Im sure plenty of fallacies could be found in this statement, as a guideline, it would show that players with higher adjusted SoS ratings have "warrented more playing time" than those with a lower adjusted SoS rating.






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SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
25319 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


quote:

Also, pardon my ignorance: what does SoS stand for?

ETA: South of South. Got it.



Score on Stats would be the modest name, but it was initially created due to my pinname SouthofSouth.



This post was edited on 11/28 at 9:40 am


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Dooshay
LSU Fan
CEBA
Member since Jun 2011
29234 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


Some of that can be attributed to luck and some of it can be attributed to offensive ability (which is hard to distinguish statistically) whereas the other statistics are primarily off/def ability, hence my suggestion.
But i guess if you subtract it out like you said it normalizes it






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SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
25319 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


quote:

Some of that can be attributed to luck and some of it can be attributed to offensive ability (which is hard to distinguish statistically) whereas the other statistics are primarily off/def ability, hence my suggestion.
But i guess if you subtract it out like you said it normalizes it


I certainly appreciate the quesitons. I am not too proud to admit I did something wrong if the that is the case.

I want this to be the best it can. I am thinking of breaking out defensive and offensive rebounds because offensive rebounds lead to more points on average than defensive. I just would have to put in some extra work.

I am also thinking about adding fouls in as a negative variable.






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Dooshay
LSU Fan
CEBA
Member since Jun 2011
29234 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


Yeah I'm not a basketball person, but I was just trying to give some positive critiques mathematically.

It seems that having the two coefficients for assists and pts with a wide margin would lower the regression (accuracy) since one is dependent on the other (it's not an assist unless a point is scored, so that person making the basket is pretty important). It's a differential equation, not linear. So taking it out is easier than breaking it down. If the goal is "should be rewarded with more playing time" then the scoreboard doesn't matter and points being scored are included in the fact that an assist happened. Who those points (statistic, not literal) are assigned to is probably attributed more to position than anything else. That's kind of taken care of since there is a finite number of each.

Whether points made it on the board or not depends on if the player made the basket (a whole other statistic). Free throws and break-a-ways could be assumed that "a player with above average ability" (ie any college basketball player warranted playing time) would make more often than not.

I'm not saying change anything up as it appears to be a good reflection as it, I was just giving some mathematical criticism (hopefully positive) on it.



This post was edited on 11/28 at 10:07 am


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Dooshay
LSU Fan
CEBA
Member since Jun 2011
29234 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


quote:

I want this to be the best it can. I am thinking of breaking out defensive and offensive rebounds because offensive rebounds lead to more points on average than defensive. I just would have to put in some extra work.

I am also thinking about adding fouls in as a negative variable.


That would certainly make it more accurate, but each variable adds an increasing level of complexity to it.

If you made two equations with positives (points, assists, blocks, etc) and and another with negatives (tos, fouls, missed baskets, etc) and added them together, it would also be a good reflections of the player's overall contribution to the team, rather than just who is out there making an impact, but those are really two different things to look at.







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SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
25319 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


quote:

Yeah I'm not a basketball person, but I was just trying to give some positive critiques mathematically.

It seems that having the two coefficients for assists and pts with a wide margin would lower the regression (accuracy) since one is dependent on the other (it's not an assist unless a point is scored, so that person making the basket is pretty important). It's a differential equation, not linear. So taking it out is easier than breaking it down. If the goal is "should be rewarded with more playing time" then the scoreboard doesn't matter and points being scored are included in the fact that an assist happened. Who those points are attributed to is probably attributed more to position than anything else. That's kind of taken care of since there is a finite number of each.


Yea. Stats can only go so far. I have always been frustrated with assists due to the fact that a perfect pass can go unrecognized with a botched layup. All basketball stats are basically dependent on the the action of someone else. That is what makes basketball great, and what makes using statistics tough.

Just trying to formulate something that can at some level explain and compare play without using the eye test. That is up to the individual viewer as each of us look for different things in players.






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Dooshay
LSU Fan
CEBA
Member since Jun 2011
29234 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


quote:

Just trying to formulate something that can at some level explain and compare play without using the eye test.


I think it's safe to say that it accomplishes this as is.






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Iam4LSUnTN
LSU Fan
Brentwood, TN
Member since Dec 2011
426 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


Forward this to Coach JJ. You are the new "Billie Basketball". Impressive.







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S
Mercer Fan
ResurrectQuin
Member since Jan 2007
55593 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


good work. i suck at teh maths.





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ProjectP2294
Miami (OH) Fan
St Louis County
Member since May 2007
29917 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


What about Hockey assists? Are those being counted?





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SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
25319 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


quote:

What about Hockey assists? Are those being counted?


No hockey assists. While the pass before the pass can be important, I decided it did not need to be included... (I know this is a joke; but still)






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Lazy But Talented
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge/New Orleans
Member since Aug 2011
3960 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)




Can we get this guy an award or something?!






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SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
25319 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


quote:

Can we get this guy an award or something?!


All I want is for more people to appreciate the LSU Basketball team and program. Stats and things like this tend to help people understand the team. When you understand you are more interested to continue learning.






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TXGunslinger10
LSU Fan
Houston, TX
Member since Jun 2011
9842 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


South, you need a job in the LSU SI department.

Nice work son.






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Tom Bronco
LSU Fan
Austin, TX
Member since Jun 2011
998 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


Might I suggest another statistic which is not kept as far as I know unless the coaches keep it unofficially. That is when in a man on man defense, how many points do you allow the player(s) that you are guarding.

Another might be in a zone defense, how many times were you out of position in a game which resulted in a score.

How about a reduced score for rebounds that are a result of the player's own missed shot that should have been made. I have seen some players get two rebounds before they finally put in the chip shot they should have made the first time.

Help defense would be another good statistic to keep. When a guard or other player gets away from his original defender and drives to the basket, who steps in to stop the drive. When a post player is scoring every time he touches the ball, does someone come help his teammate keep him in check?

Sometimes in a double team, zone press or other defensive action it is often not the person who makes the actual steal that causes the bad pass. Likewise in an assist there is sometimes a first pass that actually creates the second pass that goes to the shooter.

What does all this mean? Statistics are a nice tool but do not tell the whole story. I know you realize this but in reading through all your stats it just made me think about the things in a game for which there are no stats kept.







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LSU2THEMAX
LSU Fan
Shreveport
Member since Dec 2008
460 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


This is a great piece of work! Maybe over time the factors might be tweaked up or down in each of the categories, however it is an excellent start!

One thing missing is free throws. These have a major impact on a game. How many times a guy draws fouls is indicative of a players aggressiveness and his ability to make the opponent foul him. The other factor is ft%. A low % is really bad, especially in a close game. A high % is a major indicator of ability to put away another team.

This definitely should be factored into your formula.

My applause for an excellent, well thought out effort!!!







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SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
25319 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


quote:

What does all this mean? Statistics are a nice tool but do not tell the whole story. I know you realize this but in reading through all your stats it just made me think about the things in a game for which there are no stats kept.


My favorite stats aren't kept officially. My favorite being charges taken. But, plenty of unheralded heros can arise if more stats were compiled. If I only had the time to keep some I would love it! Maybe for next season. But it would take a lot of work. haha

The SoS Rating is something that I have wanted to do that helps for all the easy, normally used stats. I still have my eye test for the unkept stuff.






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SouthOfSouth
LSU Fan
South of I-10 till I die
Member since Jun 2008
25319 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


quote:

This is a great piece of work! Maybe over time the factors might be tweaked up or down in each of the categories, however it is an excellent start!

One thing missing is free throws. These have a major impact on a game. How many times a guy draws fouls is indicative of a players aggressiveness and his ability to make the opponent foul him. The other factor is ft%. A low % is really bad, especially in a close game. A high % is a major indicator of ability to put away another team.

This definitely should be factored into your formula.

My applause for an excellent, well thought out effort!!!


This is definitely version 1... I assume over time there will be more than 1 version haha.

For free throw %, the trouble I have is it is correlated to points scored. From a mathmatical perspective, that would decrease the power of the formula. I agree however that missing free throws is problematic.

I want to add fouls committed, and I'd love to have fouls drawn, but it's a stat not kept in official scorebooks, so it would take a ton of effort on my own time. I love to do this type of thing inbetween games, but I love enjoying the games while they are on and keeping specific stats wouldn't allow me that freedom.







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treble hook
Member since Nov 2011
2310 posts

re: LSU Basketball: The SoS Rating (Score on Stats)


Cliff would be proud





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