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rickgrimes
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2011
2999 posts

Statistical analysis of Drew Brees and the running game through 10 games

Drew Brees in 5 losses this season:
Image: http://i.imgur.com/bizHv.png width=900


Drew Brees in 5 wins this season:
Image: http://i.imgur.com/Me2Cd.png width=900



Goes to show the numbers a QB like Drew can put up with a little help from the running game.

- The most telling numbers are his: completion percentage, yards/attempt, QB rating and his TD and INT percentages. I bet he will take that any day over having to throw >40 times a game.

- In wins he is attempting 13 less passes but is only throwing for 12 yards less per game.

- Also his TD percentage is double in wins (9.52%) vs losses (5.15%).

- His completion percentage jumps from 56.7% to 70.2% in wins.

- His yards per attempt goes from 6.97 to MVPesq 8.95 in wins.

- His QB rating is 122.2 in wins and 83.7 in losses.


St Augustine
New Orleans Saints Fan
The Pauper of the Surf
Member since Mar 2006
43619 posts
Online

re: Statistical analysis of Drew Brees and the running game through 10 games
nice work...


keep pounding the rock


Sophandros
Tulane Fan
Victoria Concordia Crescit
Member since Feb 2005
45183 posts

re: Statistical analysis of Drew Brees and the running game through 10 games
When you are winning, you run more.

The real difference between wins and losses is Brees's play. The run game is better because Brees is playing better. The safeties have to stay back, for example.

So if you want to discuss causality, it starts with Brees.

Oh, and another EXCELLENT thing that you showed with this presentation is that the Carolina and KC games were major flukes.
This post was edited on 11/19 at 6:43 am


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ATLienTiger
USA Fan
Atlanta
Member since Oct 2006
23860 posts

re: Statistical analysis of Drew Brees and the running game through 10 games
In our wins he's reeling off a lot more longer throws than in our losses. I guess the Linebackers are playing up close to the box to limit our running game and he is finding Graham/Colston over the middle behind them.


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BobBoucher
LSU Fan
Overland Park, KS
Member since Jan 2008
4174 posts

re: Statistical analysis of Drew Brees and the running game through 10 games
Your post might lead some ppl to think play calling is the primary cuprit, but what doesnt show here is how the Oline has improved over time, we have less pentalties putting us in long passing downs, less pressure on Brees, and more holes for the RBs.

And our defense has gotten competitive, so we arent playing catchup by the second quarter and we can still mix in the run effectively.

If i had to rate the factors leading to these stats, id say:

1) improved Oline play
2) fewer penalties/mistakes (dropped passes, etc)
3/4) tie - improved defense/better play calling (more creative, less predictable, etc)

This post was edited on 11/19 at 8:12 am


Breesus
New Orleans Saints Fan
House of the Rising Sun
Member since Jan 2010
33916 posts

re: Statistical analysis of Drew Brees and the running game through 10 games
Gameplan, playcalling, and balance.

It took a while for Pete to settle into the full duties of OC, it took a while for the team to settle in without Payton, and it took a while for Vitt to correct the straggling issues when he came back. Not to mention the defense's myriad of problems. But finally, spags's plan is working, Vitt is back with the LB's, Kromer is back with the O-line, the Kraken has been released...

The team is finally clicking back into its rhythm, the defense is really suring up, especially in the redzone, and that intangible quality of unstoppable beastmodeness is back. We goin to the ship.
This post was edited on 11/19 at 8:18 am


whodatfan
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Mar 2008
16627 posts

re: Statistical analysis of Drew Brees and the running game through 10 games
quote:

Gameplan, playcalling, and balance. It took a while for Pete to settle into the full duties of OC, it took a while for the team to settle in without Payton, and it took a while for Vitt to correct the straggling issues when he came back. Not to mention the defense's myriad of problems. But finally, spags's plan is working, Vitt is back with the LB's, Kromer is back with the O-line, the Kraken has been released...


I agree with this.


quote:

We goin to the ship


Ok.




Breesus
New Orleans Saints Fan
House of the Rising Sun
Member since Jan 2010
33916 posts

re: Statistical analysis of Drew Brees and the running game through 10 games
LINK

This sums up my mood perfectly


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rickgrimes
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2011
2999 posts

re: Statistical analysis of Drew Brees and the running game through 10 games
I agree. The running game especially the last three games has been really good. They have run for over 5 yards a carry comfortably and ran for almost 150 yards each of those games. In those games Drew has attempted over 30 passes only one time and has crossed 250 yards only once. The balance this team has achieved is amazing. It only bodes well for the rest of this season. Everything is finally gelling together after the difficult start.


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PokerPlayingTiger
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Jan 2007
2479 posts

re: Statistical analysis of Drew Brees and the running game through 10 games
In simpler terms it is called "offensive balance". It is very hard to win without it.


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PokerPlayingTiger
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Jan 2007
2479 posts

re: Statistical analysis of Drew Brees and the running game through 10 games
And very nice post!


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BarbeTiger
New Orleans Saints Fan
Mr. White's Lab Yo
Member since Jan 2012
5962 posts

re: Statistical analysis of Drew Brees and the running game through 10 games
Being able to run the ball gives our offense so many options.


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jeff5891
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Aug 2011
6999 posts

re: Statistical analysis of Drew Brees and the running game through 10 games
awesome work dude

The only thing is that I wouldnt put much stock in TD% since not every attempt is thrown for a touchdown and percentages of completing for a touchdown change based on where you are on the field.

However I would circle and highlight how many touchdowns and int were thrown and show the ratio btween them

TD:INT
5 losses 12-TD 6-INT
2:1
5 wins 16-TD 3-INT
16:3

Which is huge a improvement
This post was edited on 11/19 at 11:36 am


saintsfan92612
New Orleans Saints Fan
a pretty good city
Member since Oct 2008
20782 posts

re: Statistical analysis of Drew Brees and the running game through 10 games
Drew Brees 6 INTs in 5 losses
Matt Ryan 6 INTs in 2 losses


no but seriously, Drew's stats in losses are still around league average. When he plays bad=average.

We are blessed!


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