I think your BCS at large scenario is wrong. Well, points 1 and 2 are fine, I guess, but this is wrong:
3. Either Oregon, FSU, or Kansas State lose another game.
4. If Oregon doesn’t lose a game, they must win the Pac 10 (UCLA beats Stanford). If they finish #3 in the BCS they would steal our “at-large” (#4 isn't "automatic" if the #3 team isn't a conference champ)
Those things are irrelevant. The SEC is going to have two teams in the BCS. Take it to the bank. the question is, which two?
The winner of Bama/UGa is obviously in, and likely in the BCSCG. If Florida wins out, they are team #2, and that's that. If they lose, the bowl will choose between A&M, LSU, and the SECCG loser. What Oregon and KSU do is completely and utterly irrelevant.
The SEC is getting two teams. The question is, who is the second one? There are ten BCS bowl slots and four are at large slots. Clearly, Notre Dame is getting one. There is absolutely ZERO chance the SEC does not get two teams. LSU doesn't care what UO, FSU, and KSU do in regards to getting a BCS birth. They do care for a remote title shot, but LSU fans really shouldn't worry about that. If the amazing happens, it happens. But don't obsess over it, because it won't.