A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13 | TigerDroppings.com

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jcole4lsu
Virginia Fan
The Kwisatz Haderach
Member since Nov 2007
27003 posts

A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13



National President
Rassmussen:
R: 49
O: 48

Gallup:
R: 49
O: 47

RCP Average:
R: 47.3
O: 46


RCP Battleground States
For Romney:
FL, NC, CO, MO

Within 2%:
OH, VA, NH, NV

RCP

This is going to be one of the most interesting Novembers in a long time. Maybe better than 04 when all the attention was on one state. This time around, there are a number of scenarios that can play out









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constant cough
LSU Fan
Lafayette
Member since Jun 2007
36827 posts

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


It's over. Obama's done.





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hsfolk
Louisiana Tech Fan
West Monroe
Member since Sep 2009
7155 posts

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


if Romney has a killer debate on Tuesday that should put him over the top in those states within 2%





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DEANintheYAY
USA Fan
LEFT COAST
Member since Jan 2008
31024 posts

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


Good news from 538 for you guys...

LINK

You guys like him when he has good stuff to say about Romney's chances, right??






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MFn GIMP
LSU Fan
Owensboro, Kentucky
Member since Feb 2011
8569 posts

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


quote:

You guys like him when he has good stuff to say about Romney's chances, right??

No.






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JoshuaChamberlain
Army Fan
Member since Sep 2010
5156 posts

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


quote:

No.






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NHTIGER
LSU Fan
Central New Hampshire
Member since Nov 2003
9516 posts
 Online 

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


Romney at 49% in both Gallup and Rasmussen on the same day. I'm pretty sure that's a first in this election cycle. Obama at 47 and 48 respectively, so both polls are reflecting fewer and fewer undecideds remaining.

The most fascinating polling data of the day is the Gallup Favorability poll for Obama - which as recently as TWO days ago showed Obama with a +9 (52-43) Favorable over Unfavorable standing.

Today his Favorable advantage is suddenly down to +2 (48-46) a drop of 7 points in just two days.

I don't think this is debate related. It's not a question about Romney's favorability rating.

I believe it reflects the growing mainstream concern over the White House vs. State Dept. vs Intelligence Community rift regarding Bhengazi that is reaching a simmering point. Someone's lying and more and more voters want to know who that someone is.

After Sept. 11th and the Administration's assurance that the FBI would investigate the 4 deaths and everyone should wait for the results (a report which they undoubtedly anticipated would not be finished before November 6th) seemed to keep the story on the back burner for a few weeks, at least in terms of the blame game.

Then came the whistleblowers.

Now, it has become the top ongoing story, aside from the election itself. It's not going to go away before Election Day - so the Administration is either going to have to become far more aggressive in reviewing the event chronology and telling what they know, or risk voters going to the polls with thoughts of Watergate Part II floating in their heads.

Government cover-ups, whether proven or merely suspected, tend to piss people off.






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skinny domino
LSU Fan
sebr
Member since Feb 2007
6274 posts

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


I thought the majority of the Political talk folks said that all these polls are rigged, at least that was the talk just a short 10 days ago when Obama was leading.





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jcole4lsu
Virginia Fan
The Kwisatz Haderach
Member since Nov 2007
27003 posts

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


quote:

skinny domino

flame away, doucher. its clear you have nothing of substance to add to any debate.







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LSUandAU
Florida
Member since Apr 2009
4028 posts

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


The polls are skewed liberal. If they show Ronmey up 1-2%, then he is up 3-5%. How about that asswipe Axelrod calling Gallup and complaining about their polls?


This post was edited on 10/13 at 2:55 pm


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jcole4lsu
Virginia Fan
The Kwisatz Haderach
Member since Nov 2007
27003 posts

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


quote:

Government cover-ups, whether proven or merely suspected, tend to piss people off.

I would agree. I'm happy the race has tightened up, makes for a much more interesting Nov.

Seems clear that as of now, Romney is going to win NC and FL. That really leaves OH, CO, and VA as the important battlegrounds. Obviously, I'm assuming the great lakes states stay blue.

I think this race will end up coming down to turnout in OH and VA.






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TIGERSandFROGS
TCU Fan
Member since Jul 2007
3453 posts

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


A new ARG Poll released today corroborated and strengthened the information from the Rasmussen poll a few days ago that showed Romney tied with Obama here. The poll's Margin of Error is +/- 4 and it showed Romney as leading 50-46.


Rasmussen also polled Michigan as being +7 to Obama, so it would appear that Michigan truly is out of reach.


Romney has Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Missouri, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire all polling within the Margin of Error. Michigan is polling +7 by a right-leaning poll, and he doesn't need it. He doesn't even need all of thoses states that he's close in to win the election. He's not going to spend time and money in Michigan and try to pull it back just to get it where it's in the competitive range again (and still likely lose it), especially since it's not needed.


It was already looking pretty good for Romney, projected to solidly have 181 EVs right now, to pick up:

Missouri (10 EVs) --> 191
Florida (29 EVs) --> 220
North Carolina (15 EVs) --> 235

And now these are looking to be favoring Romney as well:

New Hampshire (4 EVs) --> 239
Colorado (9 EVs) --> 248
Virginia (13 EVs) --> 261



Romney is pushing big for Ohio now (Ryan was in a soup kitchen there today), and getting Ohio with 18 EVs means 279 EVs with the above numbers, so New Hampshire or Colorado would become extranneous.






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TIGERSandFROGS
TCU Fan
Member since Jul 2007
3453 posts

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


Happy now, JCole?





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jcole4lsu
Virginia Fan
The Kwisatz Haderach
Member since Nov 2007
27003 posts

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


much better





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Taxing Authority
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
22844 posts

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


quote:

You guys like him when he has good stuff to say about Romney's chances, right??
Nope. He still FOS.






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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
52066 posts

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


quote:

I thought the majority of the Political talk folks said that all these polls are rigged
Rigged?
Really?

No, the majority of Political talk folks think there is no way, for example, voter turnout in Ohio will be D+11.
Do you think Ohio voter turnout will be D+11?
If you don't, then you too should scoff at an NBC D+11 poll in that state . . . . . . . regardless of who is leading it.

Got it?






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jcole4lsu
Virginia Fan
The Kwisatz Haderach
Member since Nov 2007
27003 posts

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


quote:

DEANintheYAY


Why do you love Nate but hate SurveyUSA?

Nate gives SurveyUSA results more weight than ARG, PPP, and Rasumussen.

I thought SurveyUSA should be dismissed outright? Why doesnt Nate do this?






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LSUandAU
Florida
Member since Apr 2009
4028 posts

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


Reagan-Mondale 1984

Gallop Poll - Mondale 48%, Reagan 46%

Election - Reagan 58.8%, Mondale 40.6%






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skinny domino
LSU Fan
sebr
Member since Feb 2007
6274 posts

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


quote:

flame away, doucher. its clear you have nothing of substance to add to any debate.
not flaming dickweed, you were leading the charge about the polls being rigged - what's good for dickweeds are good for douchers.






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jcole4lsu
Virginia Fan
The Kwisatz Haderach
Member since Nov 2007
27003 posts

re: A Poll of the Poll of Polls for Saturday 10/13


quote:

you were leading the charge about the polls being rigged



lol ok

maybe you should go post on a board more your speed. the sec rant perhaps.






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