OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ - Page 29 - TigerDroppings.com

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dgtiger3
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
4377 posts

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


quote:

Look at Bill Connelly's S&P rankings on football outsiders. He breaks turnovers down into the flukey variety (fumbles) vs. the possibly repeatable variety (shitty QB who throws to the other team) and takes this into account in his rankings.

Basically his rankings are meant to decrease the huge effect that turnovers have in dictating the outcome of the game, and thus be more predictive by looking at the things that tend to have a strong predictive value (e.g. explosiveness) vs. events that are mostly random (fumbles) and thus have no predictive value.

He's worth reading.


Yeah I'm on that site almost daily. His numbers and reasoning is very similar to some of what I am doing. I just like to emphasize more on a Team A vs Team B and the adverse effects they have on each other.






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dcrews
UNO Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
7849 posts

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


Ha!

It would be par for the course. Any job I've taken from the time I was 16, I've sucked terribly at initially, but wound up being a stellar employee long term.

Hopefully my sports betting will follow this trend.






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bobbyray21
Tennessee Fan
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


But, honestly, I don't find relying on computer projections to be that helpful. Ten different projection systems will give you ten different -- and sometimes wildly varying -- predicted scores.

I just saw another computer projection that had the score as 38-34 Navy.

Computer algorithms lack context, and so their utility is limited.






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bobbyray21
Tennessee Fan
Member since Sep 2009
9490 posts

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


quote:

Yeah I'm on that site almost daily. His numbers and reasoning is very similar to some of what I am doing. I just like to emphasize more on a Team A vs Team B and the adverse effects they have on each other.


Cool. Yeah, I like his approach.

So you're saying that your system is better able to account for team by team strengths and weaknesses?






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rocket31
Toledo Fan
Member since Jan 2008
18732 posts
 Online 

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


quote:

I don't find relying on computer projections to be that helpful.


says the guy who claims sharps are not "sharp."

just because you do not understand quantitative methodology, does not mean its useless; ppl out there are making a living off their betting systems.






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dgtiger3
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
4377 posts

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


quote:

But, honestly, I don't find relying on computer projections to be that helpful. Ten different projection systems will give you ten different -- and sometimes wildly varying -- predicted scores.

I just saw another computer projection that had the score as 38-34 Navy.

Computer algorithms lack context, and so their utility is limited.


I agree, but I am just a stathead at heart. I've built everything I use now on what the eyes don't as easily see, because humans are biased and what you see with your eyes doesn't always paint an accurate picture. You can never rely on numbers alone, because if that were the case someone much smarter than me would already have the winning formula. I just like having hard data to back my picks.

I let the computers crunch all the numbers, and then I go to each matchup individually and add and subtract points on all the other "factors" that you can't gauge with numbers. It's not exact science but it is my numbers and I feel comfortable with them.

Because my system is so aggresive it is going to be wildly wrong about 20% of the time, but on those games where the "intangibles" don't greatly effect the game, I think I can find value.






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HoLeInOnEr05
North Carolina Fan
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
14857 posts

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


What does your system say about Kent St @ Army?





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dgtiger3
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
4377 posts

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


quote:

What does your system say about Kent St @ Army?
'

Both teams will run for big chunks of yardage, Kent St. is about 10 points better on a neutral field but Army plays really well at home and in this spot I have Kent State winning 37-35.

No advantage on the line, a slight lean on the over.






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TheCaterpillar
LSU Fan
Nashville from BR via Oxford
Member since Jan 2004
35238 posts
 Online 

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


I'm 14 out of 24 this year with my only losing weekend coming last weekend (2/5) when I listened to someone other than myself.


This weeks bets:

Bama team over 32.5
Northwestern -3
Louisville -2.5
Rutgers -7








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BilJ
Florida State Fan
Shady's
Member since Sep 2003
116271 posts
 Online 

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


So.....Navy?





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DFWAggie09
Texas A&M Fan
DFW
Member since Oct 2011
486 posts
 Online 

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


Navy has swung from -1 to +1 on my site in the past 2 hours or so FWIW.





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shuke33
Detroit Mercy Fan
Under The Bridge
Member since Nov 2010
9052 posts

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


Dri Archer of Kent State is the fastest man in college football.

open field = touchdown every time.






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shuke33
Detroit Mercy Fan
Under The Bridge
Member since Nov 2010
9052 posts

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


That being said, neither team is good at stopping the run.





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Louie T
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2006
31448 posts

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


quote:

Bama team over 32.5

I was digging that too.

Bama hasn't been held under 33 all year. I don't see Mizzou being the 1st to do it.






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bamafan425
Mississippi St. Fan
The Golf Board Superintendent
Member since Jan 2009
21500 posts
 Online 

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


Money in on the under. I think I still like the over.





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dgtiger3
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
4377 posts

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


quote:

So.....Navy?




AMERICUH frick YEAH






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rocket31
Toledo Fan
Member since Jan 2008
18732 posts
 Online 

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


bol





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dgtiger3
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Prairieville
Member since Sep 2005
4377 posts

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


quote:

bol


Thanks rocket,

Did you ever post any of your plays for the weekend?






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bamafan425
Mississippi St. Fan
The Golf Board Superintendent
Member since Jan 2009
21500 posts
 Online 

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


Gotta get dressed up in a damn tux tonight for a formal. Better have TV's at this place.

Bring it home for us Navy!






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Bryant91092
Louisville Fan
Tuscaloosa
Member since Dec 2009
15976 posts

re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™


I took Western Kentucky last night and I'll take Navy tonight to win with the betting crew





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