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HoLeInOnEr05 
Auburn Fan
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
12053 posts
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 4:03 pm to ChemE in the OP)
I took WKU-2 for 2 units and WVU for 1.5 units
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bamafan425 
Alabama Fan
Freeman Hugs
Member since Jan 2009
9986 posts
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 4:11 pm to wish i was tebow)
quote:
I'll take the under as the lock of the week
315. Pay the bookie. 
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dgtiger3 
North Carolina St. Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
3174 posts
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 4:23 pm to bamafan425)
Just polling the audience here...
Am I the only one that thinks
KState -6.5 @ Iowa State
Looks like more of a "lock" than
West Virginia -4.5 @ Texas Tech?
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bamafan425
Alabama Fan
Freeman Hugs
Member since Jan 2009
9986 posts
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 4:26 pm to dgtiger3)
I am in that boat. KState seems to be a more complete team.
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WRedmondsStang 
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2012
154 posts
 Online
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 4:29 pm to bamafan425)
I like K St, however, one thing to keep in mind is the big game next week with WV. Same with UF, Ilike them but could get caught looking ahead to S. Carolina.
I was considering a 6pt tease, which is all my bookie allows.
UF -2
K.St.-1
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tigerbaittrick
LSU Fan
Jigga City
Member since Jan 2010
4894 posts
Online
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 4:34 pm to dgtiger3)
I like K State and WV to cover. I just went through the lines and will be going over them in depth in my night class hopefully. Just from first glance though I like these:
Duke +10 (board favorite it seems)
KState -7
Stanford +8
West Virginia -4.5
Baylor -8 (tcu qb crisis)
Games I'm going to look at more:
UAB +14.5
Fresno St +7.5
Bama -21.5 (if it drops to 21)
Tennessee +3
ULM -24
LA Tech +8
Kent St -1.5
Thursday/Friday games I'll probably bet last minute.
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TigerTatorTots
LSU Fan
The Rec, Middle Courts- retired
Member since Jul 2009
58147 posts
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 4:49 pm to tigerbaittrick)
What are people's reasons behind road favorite Western Kentucky on Thursday?
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dgtiger3
North Carolina St. Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
3174 posts
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 4:51 pm to WRedmondsStang)
quote:
I like K St, however, one thing to keep in mind is the big game next week with WV.
Definitely a big factor into the line but I have a problem with that logic in this game for two reasons.
A) Iowa State beat an unbeaten Oklahoma St at home last year to ruin their National Title dreams, I'll bet all the money in my online account that the K-State coaching staff will be reminding the team of this all week.
B) Kansas St. is not the kind of team that is very vulnerable to being upset by an inferior team. They don't rely heavily on creating turnovers on defense (like that Okie St. team did last year). And they don't have a complicated offense that is built around picking up huge chunks of yards through the air.
For the most part the line you up and pound you until they wear you down physically. I think Iowa State can hang around for a little while, but when they have to start taking chances to win the game K-State should pull away.
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SDVTiger 
UCLA Fan
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
1959 posts
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:01 pm to dgtiger3)
Iowa +10
Tennessee +3
Bama -21.5
USCe +2.5
all seem like good plays to keep an eye on. especially Iowa
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tigerbaittrick
LSU Fan
Jigga City
Member since Jan 2010
4894 posts
Online
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:04 pm to SDVTiger)
Not to be a homer, but I'd stay away from the south Carolina LSU game altogether.
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dgtiger3
North Carolina St. Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
3174 posts
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:04 pm to TigerTatorTots)
quote:
What are people's reasons behind road favorite Western Kentucky on Thursday?
For me it's all about the matchup. Western Kentucky has been a much better team this year, and they are averaging 215 yards a game on the ground. Troy hasn't been able to stop the run giving up 190 a game. (218 to ULL and 213 to Miss. St. both at home).
The only reasons I can assume the line is low is because the WKU QB is listed as probable and it is a Thursday night game on the road. Troy has been the better team for the past few years, but that wont have any barring on the outcome Thursday night.
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dgtiger3
North Carolina St. Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
3174 posts
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:05 pm to SDVTiger)
quote:
Iowa +10
This line is way to high. IMO
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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Tier BP
Member since Aug 2003
23797 posts
Online
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:19 pm to SDVTiger)
17 plays in Week 7.
Last week, the overall record finished 13-4 on all plays. The stronger 11 in that group finished 10-1.
Week 7 Leans/Small Plays
Duke +10
Utah +8
South Carolina +2.5 (will not bet against LSU)
Washington St +7.5
Week 7 Stronger Plays
WKU -2.5
Pitt +3
Houston -13.5
Toledo -13
SMU -19
Ohio U -20.5
Ball St -3
Alabama -21
Utah St +3.5
Wyoming +1.5
UCF -17
ULM -24
Ohio St -17
NFL was great last week as well: 9-3.
This post was edited on 10/9 at 5:20 pm
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bamafan425
Alabama Fan
Freeman Hugs
Member since Jan 2009
9986 posts
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:23 pm to LSUAlum2001)
You use the same principles in your NFL spreadsheet as CFB?
I like most of those plays, but a lot of high spreads scare me.
SMU is down to -15.5.
When do you lock your bets in? Now? Or wait til later in the week?
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TigerTatorTots
LSU Fan
The Rec, Middle Courts- retired
Member since Jul 2009
58147 posts
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:27 pm to dgtiger3)
And the way Thursday night home dogs have been hitting, I'm sure that is factored in to the line too. While Thursday home dogs have been incredible this season, they can't cover all the time. A regression is due since they have been covering machines the past few weeks. I like WKY here
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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Tier BP
Member since Aug 2003
23797 posts
Online
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:32 pm to bamafan425)
quote:
You use the same principles in your NFL spreadsheet as CFB?
There are 3 spreadsheets:
1. Blacklist Spreadsheet is Chris Green's. I'll be tailing him on his heavy leans and 3:1 rations.
2. My CFB spreadsheet finally had a good week to reverse a weak downward trend over the last several. It usually picks up from W6-W11.
3. My NFL spreadsheet is currently 18-11 overall.
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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Tier BP
Member since Aug 2003
23797 posts
Online
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:33 pm to TigerTatorTots)
quote:
I like WKY here
WKU is very good. I expect them to beat Troy by DDs.
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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Tier BP
Member since Aug 2003
23797 posts
Online
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:34 pm to bamafan425)
quote:
When do you lock your bets in? Now? Or wait til later in the week?
Later. I was just getting the games out there. I was late submitting some plays on here the last two weeks on the Thurs/Fri games so I decided to put them out early.
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bamafan425
Alabama Fan
Freeman Hugs
Member since Jan 2009
9986 posts
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:35 pm to TigerTatorTots)
Both teams coming off a bye week. I think the play is WKU, but you never know.
On another note, anyone else like Colorado getting 3+ scores at home on Thursday? They are awful, but damn.
Tulsa -10/OVER 51 teaser looks solid for Thursday night as well.
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SDVTiger
UCLA Fan
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
1959 posts
| re: OFFICIAL Week 7 CFB bet thread™ (Posted on 10/9/12 at 5:36 pm to dgtiger3)
Hawkeyes are 5-1 ATS last 6 games vs MSU
K Ferentz's is 30-17 in Revenge games
TE Sims is out for MSU. Bell was hurt as well
Unless LSU goes into the Gun for the entire game (which they should) i have a hard time backing them.
LSU's magic last year came from there Defense (mostly Honey B) not seeing that magic this year. I hate to say that too
May stay away but I think USCe might win the NC.
They are beast on D. They have some monster DT's and obviously the DE's are stout
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