I'd also fathom that the average is 2.5 years in a facility, not 60 days as stated and that today it costs like $50,000/yr in LA. Inflation will probably double that cost by the time you need care? Home care would cost the same. Chances are technology will keep our bodies healthier a lot longer than our minds and we'll need longer times in care facilities or home care in the next 20-30 years.
As of 2010:
OBJECTIVES: To describe lengths of stay of nursing home decedents.
DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study.
SETTING: The Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative survey of U.S. adults aged 50 and older.
PARTICIPANTS: One thousand eight hundred seventeen nursing home residents who died between 1992 and 2006.
MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was length of stay, defined as the number of months between nursing home admission and date of death. Covariates were demographic, social, and clinical factors drawn from the HRS interview conducted closest to the date of nursing home admission.
RESULTS: The mean age of decedents was 83.3±9.0; 59.1% were female, and 81.5% were white. Median and mean length of stay before death were 5 months (interquartile range 1–20) and 13.7±18.4 months, respectively. Fifty-three percent died within 6 months of placement. Large differences in median length of stay were observed according to sex (men, 3 months vs women, 8 months) and net worth (highest quartile, 3 months vs lowest quartile, 9 months) (all P<.001). These differences persisted after adjustment for age,
sex, marital status, net worth, geographic region, and diagnosed chronic conditions (cancer, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, lung disease, heart disease, and stroke).
CONCLUSION: Nursing home lengths of stay are brief for the majority of decedents.
Lengths of stay varied markedly according to factors related to social support.
tirebiter's take on this:
It is likely a small group of patients move the average to ~ 2 years, 53% die within 6-months. There obviously are outliers skewing the average. Is there a risk someone will not land in the 53% group? Sure. Is there great risk one will spend 3-yrs in a LTC? Probably not, but my crystal ball will not divulge where I might be. LINK A review of the private market for LTC: The Evidence
My wife and I will self insure for this, if things change and better options become available we will reconsider at that time.