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Will the NetFlix model change TV for better or worse

Posted on 8/27/13 at 8:57 am
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61393 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 8:57 am
Kevin Spacey just gave a speech where he lauded the NetFlix model and chided the old guard in the TV/Movie industry.

quote:

The two-time Oscar winner (who's also now a two-time Emmy nominee) began his remarks by criticizing the pilot process that dominates the U.S. TV industry. "We went to all the major networks with 'House of Cards,' and every single one was interested in the idea, but every single one wanted us to do a pilot first ... It wasn't out of arrogance that David Fincher and Beau Willimon and I were not interested in having to audition the idea, it was that we wanted to start to tell a story that would take a long time to tell. We were creating a sophisticated, multi-layered story with complex characters who would reveal themselves over time, and relationships that would need space to play out. And the obligation, of course, of doing a pilot, from the writing perspective, is that you have to spend about 45 minutes establishing the characters and create arbitrary cliffhangers and basically prove that what you're setting out to do is going to work."

Spacey then pivoted towards the Netflix model, arguing that the freedom it gives viewers to "binge-watch" is changing their relationship with TV in a profound way.

"Clearly, the success of the Netflix model, releasing the entire season of 'House Of Cards' at once, proved one thing: the audience wants the control. They want the freedom. If they want to binge, as they've been doing on 'House of Cards' and lots of other shows, then we should let them binge," he said.

Spacey argued that the Netflix model could save the television industry from the widespread piracy that has decimated the music industry.

"And through this new form of distribution, we have demonstrated that we have learned the lesson that the music industry didn't learn: give people what they want, when they want it, in the form they want it in, at a reasonable price, and they'll more likely pay for it rather than steal it."

LINK

On the one hand it sounds great, but on the other hand it sounds like there will be fewer opportunities available and you'll need an established track record to get a deal. What's better, the current Pilot system or committing to proven content creators?
Posted by beaverfever
Little Rock
Member since Jan 2008
32601 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:47 am to
Two things. Has the "netflix model" of releasing shows actually been a big success? Secondly, does anyone recommend House of Cards?
Posted by Chadaristic
Member since Jan 2011
40749 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:51 am to
quote:

Secondly, does anyone recommend House of Cards?



Absolutely. Do yourself a favor and watch it asap.
Posted by MasCervezas
Ocean Springs
Member since Jul 2013
7958 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:52 am to
quote:

Has the "netflix model" of releasing shows actually been a big success


I don't know if its a "big" success, but yeah, I would say it's successful.

quote:

Secondly, does anyone recommend House of Cards?


Haven't seen it yet, but everyone I know says its really good
Posted by THRILLHO
Metry, LA
Member since Apr 2006
49483 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:52 am to
quote:

Two things. Has the "netflix model" of releasing shows actually been a big success?


Dunno. All of their original programming appears to be doing well, but that's likely a result of the content moreso than the model. Nothing is stopping people from watching one episode a week, though.

quote:

does anyone recommend House of Cards?


frick yeah.
Posted by Cajun Revolution
Member since Apr 2009
44671 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:55 am to
Advertising revenues will suffer. No incentive to change unless you're going to be Hulu and aggravate your consumers with ads.
Posted by Cajun Revolution
Member since Apr 2009
44671 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:57 am to
quote:

does anyone recommend House of Cards?



Posted by BuckeyeFan87
Columbus
Member since Dec 2007
25239 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 9:59 am to
quote:

Advertising revenues will suffer. No incentive to change unless you're going to be Hulu and aggravate your consumers with ads.

Good. frick ads and what they've become.
Posted by Tactical1
Denham Springs
Member since May 2010
27104 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:06 am to
I watched that this morning, I have a feeling it may be to late for things like HBO and Network to stop Netflix. Netflix was allowed to grow and flourish and television didn't put a stop to it.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61393 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:16 am to
quote:

Advertising revenues will suffer.


What we're talking about here is how TV shows get selected. The current model is make a pilot, see if it tests well, if it does order a few more episodes to see how the ratings do, then maybe you commit to pick up the entire season. NetFlix committed to 2 seasons of House of Cards up front. They committed to the 2nd season of Orange is the New Black before even airing the 1st season. They are changing the market for content, think of it like the first big money contract given to quarterbacks, now every QB that wins a SuperBowl wants $100 million. Likewise content creators are going to point to NetFlix and tell the networks to commit up front or they'll sell their show to someone that will. This is kind of a big deal.


As for how successful it's been. They've said that the subscription bump for Arrested Development was enough to pay for the production. House of Cards also is credited with a subscription bump and stock price increase LINK and the emmy nominations give NetFlix a legitimacy they couldn't have bought with $100 million worth of ads.
This post was edited on 8/27/13 at 10:18 am
Posted by TigerintheNO
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2004
41128 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:19 am to
quote:

Secondly, does anyone recommend House of Cards?


Yes
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:27 am to
quote:

What's better, the current Pilot system or committing to proven content creators?


Committing to proven content creators. Frankly shocked that none of the networks took a chance on this with the pedigree behind it. Then again, there is a reason the networks outside of CBS are in trouble.

One interesting idea that I've seen floated around is putting the failed pilots online for streaming. They could even do a contest with all the pilots and have viewers vote on which one gets an order.

The larger issue is that the network model for scripted tv is broken. People want to watch serialized shows of a high quality. It is near impossible to do so on a 24-27 episode order. No idea on the cost differences, but I think running a few different seasonal shows (12 episodes of x, y, z in the fall/12 of a, b, c in the spring) would help network quality tremendously.
Posted by elprez00
Hammond, LA
Member since Sep 2011
29343 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:29 am to
quote:

As for how successful it's been. They've said that the subscription bump for Arrested Development was enough to pay for the production. House of Cards also is credited with a subscription bump and stock price increase LINK and the emmy nominations give NetFlix a legitimacy they couldn't have bought with $100 million worth of ads.

If netflix continues to produce quality shows as they have thus far, I'd be willing to pay even a little bit more, like up to $10, to keep it.

Hell, I pay $14 for HBO, and Netflix offers a tremendously larger amount of content than HBO does.
Posted by beaverfever
Little Rock
Member since Jan 2008
32601 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:38 am to
I don't see how NetFlix affords it all. What they are currently offering is worth much more than they charge IMO.
Posted by MasCervezas
Ocean Springs
Member since Jul 2013
7958 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:40 am to
quote:

I'd be willing to pay even a little bit more, like up to $10


wow, a whole extra $1
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61393 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:52 am to
quote:

I don't see how NetFlix affords it all


NetFlix is up to almost 30 million US subscribers. That's $2.9 Billion in revenue per year. Now some of that goes to pay for bandwidth, but that's still a lot of money to make content deals.
Posted by whodidthat
Member since Aug 2011
5896 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 10:59 am to
quote:

Advertising revenues will suffer


Advertising success has dropped over the decades. Commercials are becoming less and less influential, while being looked at as a nuisance by most people.

Advertising/marketing on tv needs to evolve if they want to stay relevant.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
59039 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 11:09 am to
quote:

On the one hand it sounds great, but on the other hand it sounds like there will be fewer opportunities available and you'll need an established track record to get a deal. What's better, the current Pilot system or committing to proven content creators?


That's a good question and I'm not sure there is an answer, but I don't see why both can't coexist. I remember Thom York of Radiohead saying the success of the song Creep, allowed them to do what ever they wanted later one. You could see similar things with TV/Movies. Established guys will get more leyway, while unrpoven talents could go the more traditional route.
quote:

Spacey argued that the Netflix model could save the television industry from the widespread piracy that has decimated the music industry


I really hope that's true, but I'm skeptical that pirates won't just continue to "steal"/watch for free. What I don't know is if 7.99 month is sustainable for new content. For old shows where the production costs have been paid its one thing. They may ultimately have to include commercials or product placement in some way.

The broader point that Spacey makes is the old guard needs to find a way to get out in front if they want to survive.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61393 posts
Posted on 8/27/13 at 11:33 am to
quote:

What I don't know is if 7.99 month is sustainable for new content.


I think longer term they need to go to a tiered model and/or raise prices. But for now I think $7.99 might work. HBO gets an average of $7 per subscriber. They have 28 million subscribers in the US vs NetFlix's 29.8 million, although HBO has 114 million worldwide.

NetFlix is up to 39 million worldwide though. It will be interesting to see what comes from releasing new episodes of Breaking Bad in the UK the same night they broadcast in the US. I assume that means the only UK revenue from BB would normally be a trickle of hardcore DVD buyers. They might be able to pick up their international subscriber base if they are able to monetize US shows internationally that otherwise would only sell at home.

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