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re: Need help picking advisor (dimensional fund advisors)
Posted on 9/7/14 at 5:53 pm to Maderan
Posted on 9/7/14 at 5:53 pm to Maderan
quote:
Two of years were the first years of the great depression and maybe 2008 but after the current recovery, probably not.
Maybe, maybe not. Upon retirement at 50 if someone goes through a decade plus of stagflation like which occurred in late 60's - 70's coupled with poor returns and things could look challenging. Don't know the future, but I do know future outcomes could be much different that in the past and I would not draw 5% @ 50 unless one had a very solid future income stream kicking in later in life.
Then there is investor behavior (or misbehavior) and knowing oneself. It is a totally different scenario going through financial shocks when one is employed with a rising income, much different in retirement mode.
0
Posted on 9/7/14 at 6:11 pm to Janky
quote:
Nope, not in my opinion anyway.
Someone with 30-40 yrs until retirement shouldn't have at least 75% of their portfolio spread across the entire US market?
Posted on 9/7/14 at 6:13 pm to Sigma
Sure
Posted on 9/7/14 at 6:27 pm to Janky
If you can do all that in a single fund, with a single digit ER, thats as good as sliced bread IMO. Do you do it another way?
Posted on 9/7/14 at 6:51 pm to Sigma
Ok, cool. I am not as concerned with ERs as I am with net returns, beta and upside down side capture. I am a believer in minimizing losses therefore you don't have to capture as much gains and you sleep better at night.
Posted on 9/7/14 at 7:06 pm to Janky
quote:
Ok, cool. I am not as concerned with ERs as I am with net returns, beta and upside down side capture. I am a believer in minimizing losses therefore you don't have to capture as much gains and you sleep better at night.
I see. I agree with this. Fwiw I would never be 100% VTSMX.
Posted on 9/7/14 at 7:13 pm to Sigma
Nor would I be 100% in any one thing.
Posted on 9/7/14 at 7:22 pm to Maderan
quote:
Maderan S&P is up 10% you are up 80% of that or 8%. S&P is down -10% you are down 50% of that or -5%.
I wasn't clear in my question. I understood that, but wondered the means by which you would do it
Posted on 9/7/14 at 7:23 pm to Ole War Skule
Do what?
This post was edited on 9/7/14 at 7:24 pm
Posted on 9/7/14 at 7:26 pm to Janky
quote:
net returns, beta and upside down side capture.
Mind giving your strategy? Any specifics?
Posted on 9/7/14 at 7:29 pm to Sigma
quote:
Mind giving your strategy? Any specifics?
Good luck with that
Posted on 9/7/14 at 7:31 pm to Sigma
No specific strategy. I just know there are certain managers that perform well with reduced betas and good upside/downside capture. Of course in a market like last year it doesn't look near as good as a high beta play, but over 5 years or so it works out.
Posted on 9/7/14 at 7:38 pm to Janky
quote:
No specific strategy. I just know there are certain managers that perform well with reduced betas and good upside/downside capture. Of course in a market like last year it doesn't look near as good as a high beta play, but over 5 years or so it works out.
BS
You have NO idea what you're talking about. Every independent study shows that from 75 to 90+ percent of money managers are beaten by their target index over long periods of time. but YOU know who the ones who will do it over the next 20-30'years are?
Bit if you do know the guys who can do it, by all means tell us.
Posted on 9/7/14 at 7:44 pm to Ole War Skule
Ok. You are right and I am wrong.
Posted on 9/7/14 at 7:53 pm to Janky
quote:
Janky Ok. You are right and I am wrong.
So you don't know who these specific managers are? Or you do know and you won't tell us?
ETA
This post was edited on 9/7/14 at 7:57 pm
Posted on 9/7/14 at 8:05 pm to Ole War Skule
I know who I use and how they have done. I am not interested in getting in a pissing match with you as I have seen you show your arse on multiple threads on TD. BTW, I don't give a shite about 20-30 year numbers. I look at 5-10 year numbers with more realism, IMO.
Posted on 9/7/14 at 8:26 pm to Janky
quote:
I don't give a shite about 20-30 year numbers. I look at 5-10 year numbers with more realism, IMO.
Can you expound on this? Thanks.
Posted on 9/7/14 at 9:07 pm to Sigma
My thoughts are that people do not hold funds for 20 years. In life things happen they need money. If I buy a fund that has a great track record over the last 20 years in 2006 and all of a sudden I need money in November of 2008 then I am in a bind. Even if I don't need money, people have emotions while returns on paper do not. There is a reason the S&P has returns of around 9% while the average investor return is around 3%. People have emotions and get scared. Also, in active funds managers leave so the past may not be relevant. I am not saying anything you don't already know. I just prefer holding all equity funds that didn't lose 40% in 2008, but yet still give me solid returns.
Posted on 9/8/14 at 8:32 am to Ole War Skule
I know one group that beats its index around 80% of the time. Will cost you to find out
Posted on 9/8/14 at 9:47 am to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
I know one group that beats its index around 80% of the time. Will cost you to find out
you're only hurting yourself by not telling ...if you post the fund, we'll pour our BIG MT MONEY into it, push up the underlying stock prices...you profit!
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