Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football? - Page 2 - TigerDroppings.com

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NOFLyZ0ne28
LSU Fan
Brandon, FL by way of Houma, LA
Member since Apr 2014
382 posts

re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


quote:

Jordan Reed TE WAS - will be used, but not focused on
I disagree with this. He's actually the TE I'll probably target if I don't pick in a spot where it would be smart to take JG in round 1. He's a pass catching TE, and when he finally supplanted Davis as their starter last year he had some really nice games. I know they added D-Jax, but with RGIII playing in Gruden's offense I can definitely see Reed having a huge year. I'm buying.



This post was edited on 7/9 at 12:47 pm


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Boomshockalocka
LSU Fan
Toyota Center, Clutch City, TX
Member since Feb 2004
14653 posts
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re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


1st round running backs have a high bust rate. Kashonly repost that post you made a few days ago that shows how many top rated RBs busted last year. IMO you should take BPA rd 1. If you pick late first rd, BPA will usually be the first or 2nd best WR, or best QB, not the 6th best RB.

edit: Picks in rds 6-9 are more important than 1st rd picks, that's where there are guys to be had who outproduce 1st and 2nd rd picks every year.



This post was edited on 7/9 at 12:49 pm


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NOFLyZ0ne28
LSU Fan
Brandon, FL by way of Houma, LA
Member since Apr 2014
382 posts

re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


quote:

If you pick late first rd, BPA will usually be the first or 2nd best WR, or best QB, not the 6th best RB.
+1. Once Lynch comes off the board, WR's will begin their rise in round 1. Give me Demaryius Thomas or AJ Green way before the 7th-10th best RB.



This post was edited on 7/9 at 12:50 pm


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Kashonly
Iona Fan
Member since Jan 2006
27430 posts
 Online 

re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


quote:

So non RB in 1st round to me would be Payton, Graham, CJ,
then the other as Brees/Rodgers or which ever is your favorite in the tier 1b of the WR.


less than 50% chance of success...busts who were barely worth rostering

quote:

1 1.01 Adrian Peterson RB MIN
2 1.03 Doug Martin RB TB-was crao before being injured
3 1.05 Jamaal Charles RB KC
4 1.05 Arian Foster RB HOU
5 1.05 C.J. Spiller RB BUF-crappy all year
6 1.06 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
7 1.06 LeSean McCoy RB PHI

8 1.08 Trent Richardson RB-crap all year
9 1.08 Ray Rice RB BAL-crap
10 1.11 Alfred Morris RB WAS-crap
11 1.12 Matt Forte RB CHI
12 2.03 Steven Jackson RB-crap ATL


Injuries were the only reason all these weren't BOLD

quote:

1 1.09 Calvin Johnson WR DET
2 2.02 Dez Bryant WR DAL
3 2.06 A.J. Green WR CIN

4 2.10 Julio Jones WR ATL
5 2.12 Brandon Marshall WR
6 3.02 Demaryius Thomas WR
7 3.05 Larry Fitzgerald WR
8 3.07 Andre Johnson WR HOU

9 3.08 Randall Cobb WR GB
10 3.11 Roddy White WR ATL
11 4.01 Victor Cruz WR NYG
12 4.02 Vincent Jackson WR TB


Only an injury to rodgers kept the top 3 from being the top 3
quote:

1 2.07 Drew Brees QB
2 3.01 Aaron Rodgers QB
3 3.08 Peyton Manning QB


70% chance success at TE(top 10 who finished in top 10)

quote:

1 2.11 Jimmy Graham TE NO
2 4.08 Rob Gronkowski TE NE
3 5.08 Vernon Davis TE SF
4 5.11 Jason Witten TE DAL
5 6.06 Tony Gonzalez TE ATL

6 7.04 Jermichael Finley TE GB
7 8.02 Jordan Cameron TE CLE
8 8.05 Antonio Gates TE SD

9 8.11 Jared Cook TE STL
10 9.05 Greg Olsen TE CAR





This post was edited on 7/9 at 12:52 pm


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petar
Miami (FL) Fan
Miami
Member since May 2009
5873 posts

re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?



I agree getting a good TE can be huge, but I dont buy the getting two tight ends.
I think its over paying. Flex spot should get the player that can provide the most points no matter the position with slight consideration for depth at your non-flex (of course there is a slight value in devaluing another team of getting a TE but I dont value that as highly as providing depth to rb's or wr or te if injury concern.)






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tzimme4
LSU Fan
Metairie
Member since Jan 2008
7346 posts

re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


Forte, will be a top 3 RB this season. D Thomas or Bryant will outproduce Calvin.

I think McCoy's value will not be effected by Sproles. Sproles will be used more of a decoy and Philly is a run first offense. Expect McCoy to be the top RB this year.

After that you have Charles or AP. No RB has ever had back to back #1 RB years in fantasy since the early 2000s. Dont see Charles being the top guy this year especially since he lost some of his O-Line. AP probably at 3 then Forte for me.



This post was edited on 7/9 at 12:56 pm


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Gtothemoney
UNO Fan
Da North Shore
Member since Sep 2012
6369 posts
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re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


quote:

No Qb is worth that much over another QB to be selected so high


Last year in my league Peyton had 555 fantasy points. The next was Drew at 463. No one else had over 400.

Peyton can carry a team to the playoffs. Once you're in the playoffs, anything goes.






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Boomshockalocka
LSU Fan
Toyota Center, Clutch City, TX
Member since Feb 2004
14653 posts
 Online 

re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


quote:

I think its over paying. Flex spot should get the player that can provide the most points no matter the position with slight consideration for depth at your non-flex (of course there is a slight value in devaluing another team of getting a TE but I dont value that as highly as providing depth to rb's or wr or te if injury concern.)


I'd feel pretty comfortable with Gronk/Graham in my flex going up against another teams WR3 or RB3.






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petar
Miami (FL) Fan
Miami
Member since May 2009
5873 posts

re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


quote:

historically a 1st round RB is a 50%/50% chance of success, while elite WRs and QBs are 80%


Feel that. 1st rd wr/QB is certainly a safer choice, but non bust 1st round RB is worth the risk especially if that rb has a good handcuff that isn't overvalued to assuage the injury concern at rb.

I wouldn't use this statistic to imply that you should not choose a rb over a qb/wr. its slightly skewed IMO as predicting the top 2 or 3 is a lot less risky as predicting 4-10.

Granted I typically avoid risk rbs as well






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papz
LSU Fan
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2008
5077 posts
 Online 

re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


Peyton carried a friend of mine to 7 cashes in 8 leagues. I believe the year before that he cashed out 8 of 10 leagues with the selection of a quarterback in the first. If passing touchdowns are worth 6 points, it's more than justifiable to take him high in the first. The same can be said of Brees and Rodgers.





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Boomshockalocka
LSU Fan
Toyota Center, Clutch City, TX
Member since Feb 2004
14653 posts
 Online 

re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


TROOF





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Kashonly
Iona Fan
Member since Jan 2006
27430 posts
 Online 

re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


quote:

I'd feel pretty comfortable with Gronk/Graham in my flex going up against another teams WR3 or RB3.


this is what gets missed...when they draft Vernon Davis or Cameron or Witten...they are using a 5-7rd pick

you can get those exact points from a WR/RB 30+ in the 12th+ round....rod streater, cecil shorts, Golden Tate,D.woodhead







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Gtothemoney
UNO Fan
Da North Shore
Member since Sep 2012
6369 posts
 Online 

re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


I go crazy when I'm in 2 leagues. I can't even imagine playing in 8 or 10. Jesus.





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petar
Miami (FL) Fan
Miami
Member since May 2009
5873 posts

re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


quote:

I'd feel pretty comfortable with Gronk/Graham in my flex going up against another teams WR3 or RB3.


I understand that. But the comparison is off as i think Gronk will be a 2 or 3 rd pick. Therefore yea maybe he is better than wr3 or rb3 but the value you get there is less than the value you could get with a andre johnson, ben tate, larry fitz, desean jackson type would give you over your opponents #2 wr/rb. atleast in my opinion

quote:

Last year in my league Peyton had 555 fantasy points.

Yea, Payton last year was the man. And i agree that getting a good quarterback is valuable.
Newton/luck/rg3/stafford plus Forte/McCoy/AP/Charles/CJ/Graham > Manning/brees/rodgers and Harvin/ chris johnson/ toby gerhert/t.y/ reggie bush. etc.

Safe top player is huge because you know at qb there is little risk. I think this year is much less rb heavy as years past as beyond that top 4 maybe 5 rbs, it gets a little weird.






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petar
Miami (FL) Fan
Miami
Member since May 2009
5873 posts

re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


quote:

when they draft Vernon Davis or Cameron or Witten...they are using a 5-7rd pick

you can get those exact points from a WR/RB 30+ in the 12th+ round....rod streater, cecil shorts, Golden Tate,D.woodhead


good point.






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oleyeller
Tennessee Fan
Down South
Member since Oct 2012
7800 posts

re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


my top 6 in order are

mccoy
charles
ap
forte
lacy
calvin

dont be set on rb no matter what. in 2 different ppr leagues last yr i drafted wr/wr/wr first 3 rounds... won both! its amazing what calvin/demaryious/marshall can do in ppr together



This post was edited on 7/9 at 1:24 pm


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Kashonly
Iona Fan
Member since Jan 2006
27430 posts
 Online 

re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


quote:

you can get those exact points from a WR/RB 30+ in the 12th+ round....rod streater, cecil shorts, Golden Tate,D.woodhead


good point.



and it's far easier for you to land a surprise WR1/RB2(edelman,keenan allen,alshon,knowshon)...than an elite TE

it;s also FAR easier to stream WR2/RB2...(Harry Douglas, Bobby Rainey)...than to stream TEs






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Lester Earl
LSU Fan
#buganation
Member since Nov 2003
182630 posts
 Online 

re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


quote:

He may throw 50. No?




Well, hes gonna be 38. On average over his career, he's averaged about 32 TD passes per season.

He's had a huge outlier season before, where he threw 49. He followed the next year with 28 TDs, with the same cast of players. His team's W/L actually improved too.

Only 2 players have ever thrown 50 or more.


I think 40 TDs would be the high mark. Considering he's only eclipsed that twice, that still might be a little far fetched. Mid 30's?






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Boomshockalocka
LSU Fan
Toyota Center, Clutch City, TX
Member since Feb 2004
14653 posts
 Online 

re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


quote:

in 2 different ppr leagues last yr i drafted wr/wr/wr first 3 rounds... won both! its amazing what calvin/demaryious/marshall can do in ppr together


as a general rule we don't mention free espn public leagues when talking about the leagues we've played in and how we've placed in them.






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Lester Earl
LSU Fan
#buganation
Member since Nov 2003
182630 posts
 Online 

re: Where do you go with the #4 overall pick in Fantasy Football?


quote:

Can you sell me on this guy? Ranked 5th overall among RB's and I just can't see how. I would personally draft M. Lynch way before I thought about Lacy. Why do people seem to like Lacy so much heading into this year?



He's one of a handful of a RB that is guaranteed touches. Plays in an explosive offense, will get goaline carries. He's just a safe pick IMO.


Lynch has averaged 300 carries over the last 3 years. PLus they have 2 young RBs they like in Turbin and Michael. I think they slow the throttle on Lynch a little. RBs prove to wear out after that much pounding.






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