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re: Official Pelicans Free Agency Thread(Updated with transactions)
Posted on 7/21/14 at 7:37 am to corndeaux
Posted on 7/21/14 at 7:37 am to corndeaux
Ariza averaged 3.6 3PA that first year in New Orleans. He definitely had the green light, anyone that doesn't remember that is understandably blocking out bad memories of Ariza missing wide arse open 3s time and time again. The only people who attempted more 3s per game than Ariza were Belinelli (4.1 3PA) and Peja (who only played in 6 games). As usual Shamelesspel's point is to view Monty in as negative a light as possible because he is to Austin Rivers what certain posters were to Marcus Thornton.
1
Posted on 7/21/14 at 7:40 am to TigerinATL
Jury is still out on Monty. He doesn't give me the warm fuzzies though I can assure you.
Posted on 7/21/14 at 8:06 am to Mack
quote:
Jury is still out on Monty. He doesn't give me the warm fuzzies though I can assure you.
Shocking
Posted on 7/21/14 at 8:15 am to corndeaux
That's not remotely close to what he said.
Posted on 7/21/14 at 9:02 am to quail man
I know. Ariza is much better from distance than he was in NO- and that was playing with CP3 too. Saying Ariza was a legit offensive threat in NO is off.
He has a point to a certain extent though: the idea that even an average wing shooter will come to NO and be able to take tons of 3s seems a bit far fetched to me. We've seen Monty's offense for 4 years, with good and bad talent. It's just not what he seems to value. I disagree with that philosophy, but he's had some decent to good offenses despite the lack of talent and 3PA.
For example, Anthony Morrow, who hit 45% on 3s, had a lower % of his shots come from 3 in NO than over his career (37% v 40%). Contrast that with the fact that Ariza (career 35% 3PA rate and career 35% shooter) took over 50% of his shots from 3. Morrow averaged 2 more FGA Per 36 than Ariza, is a far superior shooter from deep, and still was taking 1 less 3PA Per 36 per game. The Wiz did play at a slightly faster pace (95.5 v 94.5) but the difference isn't so great to explain the 3PA.
He has a point to a certain extent though: the idea that even an average wing shooter will come to NO and be able to take tons of 3s seems a bit far fetched to me. We've seen Monty's offense for 4 years, with good and bad talent. It's just not what he seems to value. I disagree with that philosophy, but he's had some decent to good offenses despite the lack of talent and 3PA.
For example, Anthony Morrow, who hit 45% on 3s, had a lower % of his shots come from 3 in NO than over his career (37% v 40%). Contrast that with the fact that Ariza (career 35% 3PA rate and career 35% shooter) took over 50% of his shots from 3. Morrow averaged 2 more FGA Per 36 than Ariza, is a far superior shooter from deep, and still was taking 1 less 3PA Per 36 per game. The Wiz did play at a slightly faster pace (95.5 v 94.5) but the difference isn't so great to explain the 3PA.
Posted on 7/21/14 at 9:17 am to corndeaux
quote:
will come to NO and be able to take tons of 3s seems a bit far fetched to me. We've seen Monty's offense for 4 years, with good and bad talent. It's just not what he seems to value.
but wait, isn't Monty an acclaimed Popovich protege?
Posted on 7/21/14 at 9:21 am to corndeaux
quote:
For example, Anthony Morrow, who hit 45% on 3s, had a lower % of his shots come from 3 in NO than over his career (37% v 40%).
One could certainly argue that he didn't take as many bad 3s which reduces 3 of attempts and increases %. I think this whole To 3 or Not to 3 argument tends to completely ignore context, which always bothered 42. Sometimes, a long 2 is a better shot than a 3, regardless of percentages and points per. Sometimes a pump fake is an issue of being out of rhythm, which reduces the likelihood of a make.
Posted on 7/21/14 at 9:22 am to Mack
quote:
but wait, isn't Monty an acclaimed Popovich protege?
While everyone else is arguing Xs and Os, Mack is standing on someone's couch screaming about potatoes.
This post was edited on 7/21/14 at 9:25 am
Posted on 7/21/14 at 9:26 am to Mack
quote:
isn't Monty an acclaimed Popovich protege?
As much as everyone bags on his offense (and I am no exception) his defense has been much worse. Some of that is talent, but guys often have no clue where to be or are put in a position where they can't succeed (hello hard hedges for bigs on this team).
Meanwhile his offense has been right about league average w/ Vasquez, Rolo, and Aminu playing big minutes one year and an ungodly amount of injuries. If he hadnt been so stubborn with Evans, had taken the ball out of Roberts's hands, and been smart enough to avoid the Unholy Trio, they probably were a top 10 offense last year with Holiday and Anderson playing a combined 50 games.
It's like GSW. Their offense wasn't bad at all(around 12th). But given the talent on hand, it could and should be so much better.
Posted on 7/21/14 at 9:31 am to Galactic Inquisitor
quote:
to completely ignore context
Fair point. I think on a micro level, that's absolutely true. If you look from a wide angle over the past 4 years though, there is a clear pattern from this offense.
quote:
Sometimes, a long 2 is a better shot than a 3, regardless of percentages and points per
Absolutely. Shooter, situation, open v contested, etc all matter. You don't just take a 3 when you can get the shot off because MATH.
The question is which shot is your offense looking to take on a macro level. My armchair QB hot take is that the Pelicans offense isn't really designed to take 3s or to take advantage of the spacing the 3pt threat gives an offense.
Edit:
quote:
he didn't take as many bad 3s
Realistically, how many bad 3s are there for guys like Morrow or Anderson? Say he drops from 45% to 40% because he took 2 more bad 3s. Doesn't he still come out ahead?
This post was edited on 7/21/14 at 9:35 am
Posted on 7/21/14 at 9:33 am to corndeaux
quote:
corndeaux
Thank you.
To everyone else, thank you for turning this into a flame thread without even trying to disprove anything I was saying. It's a sad day when the bandwagons of posters start jumping on people to blindly defend Monty Williams. Get ready for more pump fakes and 17 foot jumpers baby, whether you like it or not.
Posted on 7/21/14 at 9:43 am to ShamelessPel
quote:
To everyone else, thank you for turning this into a flame thread without even trying to disprove anything I was saying. It's a sad day when the bandwagons of posters start jumping on people to blindly defend Monty Williams. Get ready for more pump fakes and 17 foot jumpers baby, whether you like it or not.
Posted on 7/21/14 at 9:48 am to corndeaux
quote:
Realistically, how many bad 3s are there for guys like Morrow or Anderson?
For Anderson, not many. For Morrow, probably a few more.
quote:
Say he drops from 45% to 40% because he took 2 more bad 3s. Doesn't he still come out ahead?
It's not about dropping from 45% to 40%. If he only shoots 30% on contested 3s, it's a net loss, even if the small number only drops him to 40%. Context.
Rivers shot well in catch and shoot situations last season. That doesn't mean he needs to start taking a bunch of pull-up 3s. Context.
Posted on 7/21/14 at 10:30 am to ShamelessPel
Can't disprove something if it doesn't make any sense.
Posted on 7/21/14 at 10:34 am to ShamelessPel
quote:
It's a sad day when the bandwagons of posters start jumping on people to blindly defend
This is so true. Truly pathetic.
Posted on 7/21/14 at 10:51 am to quail man
Another Morey thinkpiece. This time from Tom Ziller
quote:
But there's also an odd incidence of metric-sympathetic writers defending the most notoriously math-sympathetic GM. It's as if some believe that any critique of Morey, the Merriwether Lewis of unathletic (though not unsporting) geeks in basketball, is a critique on all geeks in basketball. There's a messianic quality to the importance many attach to Morey, a quality that is frankly undeserved. (I'd be more apt to bow to Dean Oliver.)
The problem with Daryl Morey isn't that he's a bad GM -- he's objectively not. The problem is that he's been mythologized before he's done anything worth heralding. He's not R.C. Buford. He's not Pat Riley. But he gets as much play as those guys because of Sloan, because of the Michael Lewis profile, because of all of his patented salary cap tricks. Morey brings plenty of the attention on himself and he pays for it when his plans go sideways. That doesn't mean he deserves to be dismissed as an executive; his performance still ranks highly. His failures just get magnified.
LINK
Posted on 7/21/14 at 11:29 am to Galactic Inquisitor
quote:
If he only shoots 30% on contested 3s, it's a net loss, even if the small number only drops him to 40%. Context.
That is assuming he only shoots 30% on contested 3s. I doubt that is true for Morrow (I have no idea if public source has those numbers- Synergy?). But let's say he drops all the way to 30%, he has to hit the shot he takes instead at 45% in order for it to be a better shot- and that is before taking into account what type of shot he ends up taking. Could be a lay up, could be wide open jumper, could be a contested jumper, could be an off balance jumper, could mean he has to create (not a skill set he has) for himself or a teammate, etc. Passing up the contested 3 at 30% is no guarantee he gets a better shot.
For a guy like Morrow, a premier 3pt shooter in the NBA, I would say almost always take the shot if you feel good about the look.
quote:
Rivers shot well in catch and shoot situations last season. That doesn't mean he needs to start taking a bunch of pull-up 3s. Context.
You're talking about 2 wildly different skill sets. Lots of guys can catch and shoot at a high level. Very few can hit pull up 3s at the same rate. That's like saying Aminu can hit FTs, so he should be taking 15 footers in live ball situations. Not context, but rather similar yet divergent skills.
Besides, the point of an offense is to give your talent proper context. Morrow is an elite 3pt shooter, proper context is to create opportunities to let him shoot as much as he can from 3. Rivers is a guard who can't finish at the rim, hit pull up jumpers, or really find an open teammate when he gets into the lane. He can catch and shoot. Proper context for him is spotting up and shooting 3s. And so on...
If you want to have shooters surrounding Davis and the guards, you need to actually have defenses believe they will shoot. Like Fisher says, some of that is on the players but some of it is emphasis/scheme from the coaching staff.
Posted on 7/21/14 at 11:47 am to corndeaux
quote:
That is assuming he only shoots 30% on contested 3s. I doubt that is true for Morrow (I have no idea if public source has those numbers- Synergy?). But let's say he drops all the way to 30%, he has to hit the shot he takes instead at 45% in order for it to be a better shot- and that is before taking into account what type of shot he ends up taking. Could be a lay up, could be wide open jumper, could be a contested jumper, could be an off balance jumper, could mean he has to create (not a skill set he has) for himself or a teammate, etc. Passing up the contested 3 at 30% is no guarantee he gets a better shot.
For a guy like Morrow, a premier 3pt shooter in the NBA, I would say almost always take the shot if you feel good about the look.
The point remains. You can't totally decouple his higher percentage and lower attempts without, wait for it, context. This all stems from the unqualified idea that Monty was telling Morrow to shoot less 3s.
quote:
You're talking about 2 wildly different skill sets
That's the point. There aren't that many Andersons and Morrows in the league.
quote:
If you want to have shooters surrounding Davis and the guards, you need to actually have defenses believe they will shoot. Like Fisher says, some of that is on the players but some of it is emphasis/scheme from the coaching staff.
So, we need Brian Roberts pulling up from 3... I'm pretty sure every team we played respected Morrow behind the arc.
Posted on 7/21/14 at 12:09 pm to Galactic Inquisitor
quote:
This all stems from the unqualified idea that Monty was telling Morrow to shoot less 3s.
Come on. Let's have a reasonable discussion and not put words into my mouth.
The context is that the Pelicans, as a team, shoot less 3s as a % of their shots than almost every other team in the league. Ergo, they do not place as much emphasis or value on creating those looks as most of the NBA. That could be any number of reasons: scheme, players not working off ball, finding an open man, keeping proper spacing, coaching philosophy, etc.
Thus just dumping an Ariza or Green and their high volume, high % numbers from 3 won't magically create more 3PA for this team. Those guys put up great numbers because, surprise surprise, the context of the systems, roles, and teammates they had.
It's not a value judgement on MOAR 3s, NO DUMB ZONE!!!111! #FIREMONTY. Just that saying adding a shooter at the 3 will create a hail of bombs from deep is ignoring the evidence, not to mention the context, of what we have seen the past few years. If teammates, the system, emphasis, whatever was presenting Anthony freaking Morrow with fewer looks from 3 than he has seen over his career, I highly doubt Ariza or Salmons or whomever will be any different.
You can point to individual scenario context all you want and have valid point. Yet those all lead to the bigger picture, which is this team has been well behind the rest of the league at generating 3PT looks. If you don't think it's a problem, that's totally fine and reasonable. I may disagree, but as I said before, Monty has put together some good enough offenses. He deserves credit for what he's been able to produce on offense.
Posted on 7/21/14 at 12:39 pm to corndeaux
quote:
Come on. Let's have a reasonable discussion and not put words into my mouth.
I wasn't talking about you at all there.
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