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Started By
Message
re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread
Posted on 7/26/14 at 6:42 am to bamarep
Posted on 7/26/14 at 6:42 am to bamarep
quote:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A tropical wave located south of the Cape Verde Islands could
develop into an area of low pressure over the central tropical
Atlantic in a few days. Some slow development of this system
is possible by the middle of next week while it moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Forecaster Cangialosi
2
Posted on 7/26/14 at 9:23 am to GEAUXmedic
Looks like it's going to be a busy Cape Verde season. And so far they've been pretty far south which isn't good for the Caribbean/US.
Posted on 7/26/14 at 10:18 am to LSUTigers1986
Things better heat up in a hurry. The global warming freaks are panicking over the lack of tropical activity. Almost into August and we haven't even gotten to the B storm yet.
Posted on 7/26/14 at 10:46 am to Govt Tide
Coming up on August and September which is the peak. Not a lot of action prior to August on average
Posted on 7/27/14 at 10:19 pm to GEAUXmedic
Future 93L is finally starting to show some signs of life as the subsidence phase of the last KW moves away. It will start interacting with the next KW over the next 24 hours. Both the Euro and GFS get something going by 48 hours but the Euro then reverts back to an open wave, pretty much like the last system. The GEFS shows a lot of support for something developing but the Euro Ens are a lot less enthusiastic but have been trending more aggressive with development. Either way, on the high end this could be a name waster but something along the lines of TD#2 seems like a good call at this point.
Posted on 7/28/14 at 7:56 am to rds dc
This was at less than 10% last night. This morning........
quote:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this disturbance over the next
several days while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Pasch
Posted on 7/28/14 at 8:04 am to HubbaBubba
Posted on 7/28/14 at 8:45 am to LSUTygerFan
Posted on 7/28/14 at 8:46 am to HubbaBubba
Not a whole lot of change with the overnight models. The GFS is still overly aggressive with developing 93L and the Euro is still pretty meh about it. The Euro appears to be struggling with genesis this season but the GFS convective scheme is prone to overdoing the influence of KWs. The blend of the two is still probably a safe call at this point - TD or weak TS.
There is SAL to the north of the system:
But the system has a nice PW pouch associated with it, esp. while it is attached to the ITCZ:
As we saw with TD#2, a system can avoid ingesting dry air as long as shear is low and/or the shear vector is favorable.
If we see a system of any strength form then it is most likely going to recurve out to sea with the 500mb pattern that is being forecasted:
The one concern at this point would be for the system to stay weak, slide under the trough, and then possibly develop farther west.
This post was edited on 8/8/14 at 9:28 pm
Posted on 7/28/14 at 8:54 am to rds dc
looked like the GFS and NAM seemed to have it moving into the atlantic.
Posted on 7/28/14 at 9:08 am to Pedro
Even if it does manage to get past the trough, shear will be lying in wait in the caribbean to shred whatever it is to pieces.
Looks like its going to be the theme this season just like the last few. Persistent east coast trough and cold fronts making there way down to the gulf states every 7-10 days. Tons of shear and hostile conditions in the gulf and Caribbean.
Looks like its going to be the theme this season just like the last few. Persistent east coast trough and cold fronts making there way down to the gulf states every 7-10 days. Tons of shear and hostile conditions in the gulf and Caribbean.
Posted on 7/28/14 at 9:13 am to Pedro
quote:
looked like the GFS and NAM seemed to have it moving into the atlantic.
Pedro,
The NAM isn't meant to be used for the tropics, in fact, I'm not sure what it is meant for b/c it is trash. The GFS develops the system enough to get picked up by the mid-level steering currents and the huge EC trough kicks it out to sea.
This post was edited on 8/8/14 at 9:28 pm
Posted on 7/28/14 at 9:15 am to rds dc
ahh alright i just used the site we use at school and went through the different runs they have
Posted on 7/28/14 at 2:10 pm to rds dc
quote:
The NAM isn't meant to be used for the tropics, in fact, I'm not sure what it is meant for b/c it is trash. The GFS develops the system enough to get picked up by the mid-level steering currents and the huge EC trough kicks it out to sea.
I use the 4km NAM religiously for local weather patterns.. not tropics though. The GFS is crap at the moment, huge east bias. HWRF probably has the best handle on Invest 93L
This post was edited on 7/28/14 at 2:12 pm
Posted on 7/28/14 at 3:50 pm to GEAUXmedic
Note: I'd imagine the east bias is strong here, also intensity might be a little high..
Posted on 7/28/14 at 3:53 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 7/29/14 at 12:06 am to Jim Rockford
The 18z NCEP TC genesis says that it is almost go time for 93L
The Euro remains somewhat unenthusiastic about 93L and keeps it weaker and farther south. There are a couple of ULLs hanging out to the NW of the system, what happens with those will be something to watch over the next couple of days. Also, as the influence of the KW moves away the system will encounter a more stable than normal atmosphere and cooler than normal waters.
This probably has a pretty short window to really get going, otherwise convection will probably struggle.
The Euro remains somewhat unenthusiastic about 93L and keeps it weaker and farther south. There are a couple of ULLs hanging out to the NW of the system, what happens with those will be something to watch over the next couple of days. Also, as the influence of the KW moves away the system will encounter a more stable than normal atmosphere and cooler than normal waters.
This probably has a pretty short window to really get going, otherwise convection will probably struggle.
Posted on 7/29/14 at 10:12 am to rds dc
So is this thing a go or not?
Posted on 7/29/14 at 1:40 pm to ell_13
quote:
So is this thing a go or not?
This post was edited on 8/8/14 at 9:29 pm
Posted on 7/29/14 at 1:43 pm to rds dc
I'm going with not.. I just don't see anything happening til the middle-end of august
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