re: Crimea is about to secede from Ukraine (frigging spelling)

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No, the point of the second amendment is so when the government (or newly installed government) tries to control a population, they have a big deterrent. The government should be controlled by the people.

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While that seems to be the popular sentiment these days, I don't think that was the sole point of the 2nd Amend.

email I got, edited to fit character limitations:


I came here in 2005 on a contract to help build a professional corps of NCOs for the Ukrainian Army. It was a dismal failure. The military budget couldn't support building the kind of NCO corps the US Army has. Ukraine just doesn't have the budget for the personnel and training changes that are necessary. also, as a result of many years of European and Soviet style military doctrine, the junior leaders are officers. NCOs are just technicians. That's worked for them for a couple centuries. The current mid grade officers recognized that this wasn't the most efficient way of leadership, but they just can't convince the civilians to put enough in the budget to professionalize the force. Conscription stopped this year, but they are a long way from developing a small, professional army.
I'm now a NATO procedures instructor at the Ukrainian Land Forces Academy, their version of West Point.
During my last 3 years here now, I've met and worked with several Ukrainian mid-grade (major through colonel) and junior grade (lieutenant and captain) officers. Plus a few hundred cadets. I've made friends, a couple enemies, and a lot of good colleagues. It has a history that goes back a couple thousand years and is rich in a culture that even Soviet occupation for 50 years could not destroy.

Ukrainians are almost as much of a mixed culture as is the USA. There are leftists, rightists, centerists, and a few idiots. There is a small but vocal group that bears resemblance to the Nazi Party in Germany in 1939. What amazed me, however, was the level of corruption. I expected it, after having worked in former socialist countries before, and have seen what happens when you toss out the communists.

The only groups ready to replace the communists ... the only groups with an formal/semi-formal hierarchy, organization, chains of command, resource procurement procedures, etc... the only groups immediately available... are the crooks and criminal organizations. What usually happens is the crooks make their way into government positions, both elected and appointed, and just raise the level of their operations to a national level. The people usually get tired of it, and either vote them out, or kick their asses out. Once they do, the only groups ready to move back in and take charge are.... the old communists! They'll have a new name, but old styles. So the folks kick them out and the damned crooks come back in... usually with less power.

Ukraine has gone through these cycles. There is no civil service system here. When a new political party takes charge, everyone who works for the government expects to lose their job. Teachers, civil works technicians, cops, secretaries, postal workers, etc. If they don't offer a bribe to their new politically appointed boss, they will lose their paycheck.

Cops are a special thing. No city cops, no state cops, just the national police. and they get paid MUCH less than minimum wage. A cop does not chase criminals, he chases his boss's political opponents. A traffic cop does not enforce traffic laws, he fights to get assigned to a check point on a good street so he can stop new cars and extort money from the driver (obviously well off... he's driving a new car) using some trumped up charge.
Businesses are extorted by officers attempting to enforce unwritten city codes. Driving schools don't teach kids to drive, the kids can buy a license for $50 and walk out the same day they enrolled in the course. everything is like that.
When I got here I was just flat amazed how deep the corruption was. My translator asked me how I would handle such a situation back in south Texas. I told him we had enforceable laws, much more accountability of officials ... and as a last resort, the .45 on my hip and the AR-15 in my bedroom gun cabinet. He sighed.... said we have none of that. We can't make changes.

Well folks. Ukrainians stood up on their hind legs these last few months, and they fought back against the crooks... and they won! More than one hundred of them died doing it. It'll take the new folks in government to change what they had. It's hard changing a nation, a culture of corruption, a business environment that doesn't know how to enforce contract law. But they want to give it a chance.

And now, Vladimir Putin has decided that he can't allow the new Ukrainians to succeed. Because if they do, Russians might decide to get rid of the criminals who are the Russian Mafia, and the people like Putin who are trying to rebuild... not the Soviet Union ... but the old Russian Empire. There are good geo-political reasons for him to desire that., but it comes at the cost of Ukrainian freedoms to chose.

The US will not, maybe cannot jump in here and oppose the Russians militarily (the US has zero tanks left in Germany, folks). The Germans, Brits, French, etc don't have the forces to do it either. Nor the political will. So a NATO military option is out of the question. The Ukrainian military is too small, too under-resourced, and too tied to old Soviet style doctrine to go it alone.

So, what is left?
That will be up to President Obama, the British Prime Minister, Ban-Ki-Moon at the UN, and, believe it or not, the people and prime minister of Turkey. The Poles might go up against the Russians. They've done it before. Polish military history is pretty brave. They've been outclassed and outmatched, but no one can ever accuse them of cowardice. If the Russians try to take western Ukraine, the Poles might surprise everyone.

I support what the Ukrainians are trying to do. I can't do much about it, except teach my cadets. Because of the semi-official position I work in, I can't do much more. If it gets too dangerous out here in western Ukraine, I have to go home. If it gets too politically strenuous for the US, the State Department might order us to go home. I'm not impressed with John Kerry whining that Putin doesn't respond to our super-civilized new world society. He is "stunned" that Mr Putin acted in the same old way that Russians have always reacted. By force. By making your enemies fear you. By taking action, not talking. I'm amazed that anyone with a clue really thinks that this 21st century is going to be much different than the 19th century. History shows us otherwise. Every. Damned. Time.

So, I've made my conscience easier by writing this. The old Ukrainian colleague who asked if I had written my friends is a retired colonel. A full professor. And he is itching to put his uniform back on and go defend Ukraine. Against the Russians. Against a force a hundred times bigger. He has a beautiful, thirteen year old daughter. Who wants to be a ballerina. And he wants her to have the opportunity to do it in a free, law-abiding, free-enterprise nation. And he's willing to go up against the Russian Bear to do it.
I just wanted you to know.

Russia just won another battle in the bloodless war.

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Armed men thought to be Russians drove a truck into a Ukrainian missile defence post in the Crimea region on Friday and took control without a shot being fired, a Reuters reporter on the scene said.

Initial reports said the truck had smashed through the gates and that post in the city of Sevastopol was being stormed but the reporter could not see any signs of the gates being damaged.

A Ukrainian military official, Vladislav Seleznyov, said by telephone that the armed men took over the base without any shooting and that no one was hurt.

Another Ukrainian official told Reuters at the post that he was now mediating between the Ukrainian forces and the armed group inside, and that no arms had been seized.

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LINK

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The last time we sat on the sidelines and watched the world do this we paid a dear price in pear harbor.

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It wasn't like the U.S. was just minding its own business playing with grass in its backyard when Pearl Harbor happened.

Actually the price we paid was in the war itself by letting it come to that in the first place. Rule #1 of war: nobody wins. The winner just gets to set the terms for the surrender.

(no message)

"Nato announces it will deploy Awacs reconnaissance planes in Poland and Romania to monitor the crisis in Ukraine."


Putin may have waited too long to invade the western part of the country. Nato is lining up its ducks now.

He probably has Crimea as long as he wants it, but I don't see him moving into the rest of the region.

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Putin knows it. The west knows it. I wouldnt be suprised if Putin puts NATO in that situation and dares NATO to start WW3.

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Russia would lose just as much as the West in an all out war. I think Putin would back down if it ever went that far.

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thats my point though - there isnt anything we can do about Crimea without risking all out war right? Why would the wholtake over of all of Ukraine be any different?

I think the only difference is the whole of Ukraine will be much more difficult to occupy without violence, which might be the catalyst for international intervention.

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A lot of different things are in play here.

As long as his seizure of Crimea remains bloodless, there isn't a single thing the west will even consider that looks remotely military. To me, that is the key.

However, if fighting breaks out, that will change things. The west will not intervene, but I can see the west easily funding and supplying Ukraine with logistical support, something their tiny army is in sore need of.

The other thing to consider is economics. The west and Russia can hurt each other badly economically. Europe is dependent on Russia for fuel, and Russia is dependent on Europe for cash flow/trade etc. Don't overlook this. It's a different world from the cold war.

Money makes the world go round and if done correctly could be used to narrow Putin's dreams if imperial glory.

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It looks good, but doesnt mean jack. So theres really no disincentive there. And Europe is key to sanctions. US trade is neglegible.

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Yup. Europe being europe is what led to two world wars.