NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013 - Page 3 - TigerDroppings.com

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Sal Minella
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2006
916 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


quote:

Now, the rise would have to be dramatic to make much of a difference money wise. Hence, people leave. The motivator now is the lack of big early round money in comparison.


Bingo! The new CBA has made only the 1st round relevant. Otherwise, if you think you can make it, you leave and try to make it 3 years. You don't "waste" one of those years in college trying to achieve 1st round status that you probably won't make.

Jeremy Hill has no decision to make. No RB was drafted in the 1st round last year and the league is moving away from that type of draft strategy.






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TigerDeBaiter
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2010
2466 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


quote:

The term "late round picks" has changed with the new CBA. A franchise is paying virtually the same money for a 2nd round pick as they are a "late round pick"


This is the key here.

So the sell now is:

Go prove yourself in the league and we'll get you a fat contract next time around. You have nothing left to prove there (school).

As opposed to before:

Give it one more year at school, and we can triple your first contract. (By moving up a couple rounds)

That's my take on it anyway. It sucks for CFB, but does take a lot of liability off the NFL. Monetarily anyway. Think of all those massive contracts that turned out to be busts. Hate to use a tiger as an example, but can't help but think Jamarcus...






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SlowFlowPro
Stanford Fan
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
286883 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


quote:

The new CBA has made only the 1st round relevant.

this is illogical when discussing how the 5th round hasn't changed. if you're projecting as a 5th rounder, then the CBA difference has no real impact on you. you're getting the same contract

on the same token, the first round still pays the most (even if it doesn't pay as much)

quote:

You don't "waste" one of those years in college trying to achieve 1st round status that you probably won't make.

this only applies to guys like landry/OBJ/hill (people nobody are questioning leaving). this does not apply to turner, hilliard, ware, ford, faulk, etc






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SlowFlowPro
Stanford Fan
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
286883 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


quote:

As opposed to before:

Give it one more year at school, and we can triple your first contract. (By moving up a couple rounds)

you can still "triple your contract" if you can move into the 1st round from the 3rd or worse






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SBC
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2005
3663 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


It's the difference between early and late round money. Pre-CBA it paid big time to stay and move up. Now it isn't worth it.

What part of this can't you guys understand?






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SlowFlowPro
Stanford Fan
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
286883 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


quote:

It's the difference between early and late round money. Pre-CBA it paid big time to stay and move up. Now it isn't worth it.

this applies to jarvis, OBJ, hill

quote:

What part of this can't you guys understand?

how your logic applies to turner, hilliard, ware, ford, faulk, etc






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spanky
LSU Fan
ihateflorida
Member since Aug 2005
142 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


quote:

It's the difference between early and late round money. Pre-CBA it paid big time to stay and move up. Now it isn't worth it.


That is what is being sold by the agents. What I would love to see is there any data showing that fourth and fifth year players or more likely to get to the 2nd contract than three-year college players. My gut says that yes they are more likely to make it - many of them anyway. The problem with that argument is that 21-year-olds have an absolutely horrible time (yours truly included back in the day) seeing the long-term benefit.

Point being what is being sold right now may not actually be the truth, but it's what the kids are buying

Edit: what I meant was fourth and fifth year players or more likely to reach their second contract…



This post was edited on 1/4 at 10:47 am


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joeytiger
LSU Fan
Denham Springs
Member since Jul 2012
2595 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


Most of these kids come from poor backgrounds and 100K signing bonus is quite a bit of money for someone who has never had much. Just sayin.





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SettleDown
LSU Fan
Everywhere
Member since Nov 2013
1113 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


I just read that using pre-current CBA stats, fewer than 50% of players drafted 4th round stuck long enough to have received a 2nd contract in the current CBA. As the article pointed out, that number likely grew once new talent became cheaper thus making it make even less sense for an NFL team to keep a journeyman player into 2nd contract status.

In the previous system, a player moving from round 4 type status to say late round 2 status would have seen a huge jump in pay. He didn't need to get to the first round for this. Hence, there was some incentive to stay and try to move up.

There is still obviously a bit more pay but, that incentive has been decreased in the current CBA. Once a player realizes that he is probably not going to get to 1st round type money, he then moves to other variables.

IE, possible injury that could actually reduce or eliminate his value.

While we hear a lot about the "2nd contract", I don't think that would be much of a driving force if you consider that less than 50% will ever see it. The driving force I think is fear of injury. THAT is the greatest risk in terms of dollars.

Basically, now that the LARGE incentive in $$ for higher rounds went away, other factors like the possibility of making ZERO money have grown in the player's psyche. It was always a worry, but now it's a bigger one.

So, you figure some of the worries about stayin that existed before are still there and some of the incentives to stay have been reduced............viola'






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tduecen
Tulane Fan
The internet
Member since Nov 2006
100939 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


I dunno how many 3rd to 7th round kids could improve their stock enough to jump to the 1st round. However, if I am projected in the 4th round and I believe I could improve to the 3rd round by staying in school a year more then I am leaving early. Mainly to get to that second contract quicker. The money difference is only a few hundred thousand (second contract worth millions) and that is the way it is being marketed to the kids now.
Make the jump sooner and start working on the second contract instead of staying in school, the only ones who will stay are the ones who really enjoy the college life and have no financial reason to leave early.






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Sal Minella
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2006
916 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


Would you explain how Ware and Ford could've improved their stock this year to jump up 3 rounds?





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SettleDown
LSU Fan
Everywhere
Member since Nov 2013
1113 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


quote:

However, if I am projected in the 4th round and I believe I could improve to the 3rd round by staying in school a year more then I am leaving early.
Agreed.

quote:

Mainly to get to that second contract quicker.
But not for this reason. I think this is a weaker reason than simply the fact that before, you stayed and risked injury for the possibility of a significant pay increase. Now, that possibility has shrunken.

Most of those late rounders aren't even going to see a 2nd contract. Hence, that doesn't make sense as a driving reason. What makes sense to me is simply this.

Football beats the frick out of you. I think most players realize their bodies only have so much football contact in them. Hence, playing for free(LOL) only makes sense as long as the possible growth in income from improvement is large.

When that number begins to shrink, it makes less and less sense.






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tduecen
Tulane Fan
The internet
Member since Nov 2006
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re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


quote:

Most of those late rounders aren't even going to see a 2nd contract. Hence, that doesn't make sense as a driving reason. What makes sense to me is simply this.
This is true, but you are talking about people who BELIEVE they are that good and that they will achieve that second contract. Many of the people making the jump don't realize how much competition there really is, that is the competitor in them.
It doesn't matter what the statistics show, these kids have the mentality that they are good enough and will prove it, which is a great mentality to have but like Slow said when you have guys leave who are projected no better than 5th it hurts depth.



This post was edited on 1/4 at 11:35 am


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SettleDown
LSU Fan
Everywhere
Member since Nov 2013
1113 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


quote:

This is true, but you are talking about people who BELIEVE they are that good and that they will achieve that second contract. Many of the people making the jump don't realize how much competition there really is, that is the competitor in them
Meh. I'm not sure how true this is.

All of these kids saw the jump in talent around them when they left HS for D-1. They were giant fish in a tiny pond and suddenly, not so much. While all of them aint brilliant, it isn't a big deal to explain the numbers to them.

Moreover, they have been playing long enough to be able to recognize talent of others. And, forgetting talent, they've been playing long enough to know that the reason many players don't see a 2nd contract has nothing to do with talent. IE, they know very well the specter of injury.

These kids are leaving because the incentive to risk injury has been reduced. If it had not been, more would stay.






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lsutothetop
Columbia Fan
Member since Jul 1985
Member since Jul 2008
9949 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


I don't think this round is going to be full of guys making mistakes there though.

Landry and Beckham are top 3 round locks, like you said. If Hill isn't a top 3 round lock, he never will be - he's a RB, which is the only reason he isn't a top 3 round lock right now. Johnson seems like he's a late 2nd/early 3rd round guy as well, just looking around.

Ferguson and Collins are borderline top 3 rounds and it'll probably depend on the Combine and the rest of the pre-Draft preparations that decide it... riskier, but I can understand it. (And yes, Ferguson, I've seen late 3rd everywhere for him)

Hilliard and Magee are staying, so no worries there.

It's really just Trai Turner (and he definitely is making a mistake) who's pulling a Chris Faulk here

EDIT: Ware and Ford weren't going to move up much imo. As long as they were here with Hill, those three would have split too many carries, along with Blue and Hilliard. I think they made the right call just because their exposure was going to be too limited. Downside of having such a strong stable of talented backs.



This post was edited on 1/4 at 11:40 am


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SettleDown
LSU Fan
Everywhere
Member since Nov 2013
1113 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


quote:

It's really just Trai Turner (and he definitely is making a mistake) who's pulling a Chris Faulk here

I honestly don't even see that kid making a September roster.

I also have my doubts about how high Ego goes.






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tduecen
Tulane Fan
The internet
Member since Nov 2006
100939 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


Faulk's biggest thing was injuries, I doubt coming back would have helped as he never saw the field (practice field anyway) for Cleveland anyway.





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lsutothetop
Columbia Fan
Member since Jul 1985
Member since Jul 2008
9949 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


It'll be interesting watching Ego. CBS Sports actually has Ferguson ahead of Johnson (#5 DT instead of #10) and has him going in the 2nd round (Johnson in the 3rd)





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lsutothetop
Columbia Fan
Member since Jul 1985
Member since Jul 2008
9949 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


If he never saw the field for Cleveland, doesn't that confirm he made the wrong call?

I dunno how much his stock would have gone up had he returned, but it can't have gone any worse than it actually did for him






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tduecen
Tulane Fan
The internet
Member since Nov 2006
100939 posts

re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013


quote:

If he never saw the field for Cleveland, doesn't that confirm he made the wrong call?

No because he had issues with his knee over the summer, he would have never saw the field for LSU either which would have made him an undrafted FA again. How does that help him?

He signed a modest deal with Cleveland and got paid to rehab with a professional team as they prepare him for 2014 season when he will be completely healthy.



This post was edited on 1/4 at 11:48 am


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