re: NFL "Late Round" Rookie Salary Differences: 2008 to 2013

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The new CBA has made only the 1st round relevant.

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this is illogical when discussing how the 5th round hasn't changed. if you're projecting as a 5th rounder, then the CBA difference has no real impact on you. you're getting the same contract

on the same token, the first round still pays the most (even if it doesn't pay as much)

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You don't "waste" one of those years in college trying to achieve 1st round status that you probably won't make.

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this only applies to guys like landry/OBJ/hill (people nobody are questioning leaving). this does not apply to turner, hilliard, ware, ford, faulk, etc

It's the difference between early and late round money. Pre-CBA it paid big time to stay and move up. Now it isn't worth it.

What part of this can't you guys understand?

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It's the difference between early and late round money. Pre-CBA it paid big time to stay and move up. Now it isn't worth it.

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That is what is being sold by the agents. What I would love to see is there any data showing that fourth and fifth year players or more likely to get to the 2nd contract than three-year college players. My gut says that yes they are more likely to make it - many of them anyway. The problem with that argument is that 21-year-olds have an absolutely horrible time (yours truly included back in the day) seeing the long-term benefit.

Point being what is being sold right now may not actually be the truth, but it's what the kids are buying

Edit: what I meant was fourth and fifth year players or more likely to reach their second contract…

I just read that using pre-current CBA stats, fewer than 50% of players drafted 4th round stuck long enough to have received a 2nd contract in the current CBA. As the article pointed out, that number likely grew once new talent became cheaper thus making it make even less sense for an NFL team to keep a journeyman player into 2nd contract status.

In the previous system, a player moving from round 4 type status to say late round 2 status would have seen a huge jump in pay. He didn't need to get to the first round for this. Hence, there was some incentive to stay and try to move up.

There is still obviously a bit more pay but, that incentive has been decreased in the current CBA. Once a player realizes that he is probably not going to get to 1st round type money, he then moves to other variables.

IE, possible injury that could actually reduce or eliminate his value.

While we hear a lot about the "2nd contract", I don't think that would be much of a driving force if you consider that less than 50% will ever see it. The driving force I think is fear of injury. THAT is the greatest risk in terms of dollars.

Basically, now that the LARGE incentive in $$ for higher rounds went away, other factors like the possibility of making ZERO money have grown in the player's psyche. It was always a worry, but now it's a bigger one.

So, you figure some of the worries about stayin that existed before are still there and some of the incentives to stay have been reduced............viola'

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However, if I am projected in the 4th round and I believe I could improve to the 3rd round by staying in school a year more then I am leaving early.

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Agreed.

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Mainly to get to that second contract quicker.

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But not for this reason. I think this is a weaker reason than simply the fact that before, you stayed and risked injury for the possibility of a significant pay increase. Now, that possibility has shrunken.

Most of those late rounders aren't even going to see a 2nd contract. Hence, that doesn't make sense as a driving reason. What makes sense to me is simply this.

Football beats the frick out of you. I think most players realize their bodies only have so much football contact in them. Hence, playing for free(LOL) only makes sense as long as the possible growth in income from improvement is large.

When that number begins to shrink, it makes less and less sense.

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This is true, but you are talking about people who BELIEVE they are that good and that they will achieve that second contract. Many of the people making the jump don't realize how much competition there really is, that is the competitor in them

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Meh. I'm not sure how true this is.

All of these kids saw the jump in talent around them when they left HS for D-1. They were giant fish in a tiny pond and suddenly, not so much. While all of them aint brilliant, it isn't a big deal to explain the numbers to them.

Moreover, they have been playing long enough to be able to recognize talent of others. And, forgetting talent, they've been playing long enough to know that the reason many players don't see a 2nd contract has nothing to do with talent. IE, they know very well the specter of injury.

These kids are leaving because the incentive to risk injury has been reduced. If it had not been, more would stay.

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It's really just Trai Turner (and he definitely is making a mistake) who's pulling a Chris Faulk here

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I honestly don't even see that kid making a September roster.

I also have my doubts about how high Ego goes.

It'll be interesting watching Ego. CBS Sports actually has Ferguson ahead of Johnson (#5 DT instead of #10) and has him going in the 2nd round (Johnson in the 3rd)

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If he never saw the field for Cleveland, doesn't that confirm he made the wrong call?

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No because he had issues with his knee over the summer, he would have never saw the field for LSU either which would have made him an undrafted FA again. How does that help him?

He signed a modest deal with Cleveland and got paid to rehab with a professional team as they prepare him for 2014 season when he will be completely healthy.