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re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by I Love Bama on 9/29/14 at 7:51 am to Ole War Skule
This thing just gaps so hard in both directions.
ETA:
I got out of my position at $15.65. Quick 15% in two weeks.
Thanks guys.
Hopefully it will fall back down and then I can jump back in. Regardless, it was fun.
ETA:
I got out of my position at $15.65. Quick 15% in two weeks.
Thanks guys.
Hopefully it will fall back down and then I can jump back in. Regardless, it was fun.
This post was edited on 9/29 at 9:15 am
re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by Ole War Skule on 9/29/14 at 10:39 am to I Love Bama
need a morning update form Force and Iowa...
up to 15.9
highest price since 8/29
this is the top of the recent 13-16 trading range
breakout or no?
ETA: can buy a 21 put for .07,
21.5 for .17
up to 15.9
highest price since 8/29
this is the top of the recent 13-16 trading range
breakout or no?
ETA: can buy a 21 put for .07,
21.5 for .17
This post was edited on 9/29 at 10:49 am
re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by LSURussian on 9/29/14 at 10:42 am to Ole War Skule
quote:I answered your question in the stock market prediction thread.
Ole War Skule
re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by Ole War Skule on 9/29/14 at 10:47 am to LSURussian
quote:
I answered your question in the stock market prediction thread.
yeah, thanks, I'm doing great huh?
re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by L S Usetheforce on 9/29/14 at 11:33 am to Ole War Skule
I had a sell point for a 1000 shares @ 15.75.......it's done...........still holding 2000 shares @ 13.38 price point
re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by LSURussian on 9/29/14 at 12:42 pm to Ole War Skule
quote:You're welcome.
yeah, thanks, I'm doing great huh?
You're actually not doing all that bad in every category except for the two bond rate predictions. You're over 40% off in those. If bond rates spike up even a little between now and the end of the year, you'll do fine.....assuming the other categories don't move too much in the meantime.
re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by Ole War Skule on 9/29/14 at 1:02 pm to L S Usetheforce
wow...as high as 16.55
it really rolling today
still haven't sold, but damn itchy about it
all I can find is everyone is all of a sudden deciding some long term winter forecasts will come to pass with reserves 20% under historical levels
LINK
"A historically cold winter east of the Rockies led to price spike above $6/mmBtu and drained supplies to 11-year lows by the spring. Gas producers have refilled stockpiles at a record rate, but some regional shortfalls remain, BNP Paribas warned in a note Monday. Gulf Coast storage has become increasingly important to serving winter demand, and it is about 20% lower than its five-year average, potentially hampering its ability to supply other markets this winter."
I really want to buy some UNG puts, it's got to pull back after going up 10% in a day
ETA: sold 2k shares at 16.27 (tight trailing % limit), still have 1k
it really rolling today
still haven't sold, but damn itchy about it
all I can find is everyone is all of a sudden deciding some long term winter forecasts will come to pass with reserves 20% under historical levels
LINK
"A historically cold winter east of the Rockies led to price spike above $6/mmBtu and drained supplies to 11-year lows by the spring. Gas producers have refilled stockpiles at a record rate, but some regional shortfalls remain, BNP Paribas warned in a note Monday. Gulf Coast storage has become increasingly important to serving winter demand, and it is about 20% lower than its five-year average, potentially hampering its ability to supply other markets this winter."
I really want to buy some UNG puts, it's got to pull back after going up 10% in a day
ETA: sold 2k shares at 16.27 (tight trailing % limit), still have 1k
This post was edited on 9/29 at 1:34 pm
re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by Iowa Golfer on 9/29/14 at 2:48 pm to Ole War Skule
Skule, I'm long natural gas for this winter. They are going to inject a heap load on Thursday's report for last week. Your short play is tempting. I personally wouldn't consider selling my long at least until we see how winter starts to shape up.
I'm not sure I'm going short for Thursday as a quick play. I got killed last week trying to do this. So this would probably be a very strong signal to short until Thursday's report.
It's been about 7 out of 1o, but I had thought last week set up so well, I bought 550 puts. Now that was painful.
I'm not sure I'm going short for Thursday as a quick play. I got killed last week trying to do this. So this would probably be a very strong signal to short until Thursday's report.
It's been about 7 out of 1o, but I had thought last week set up so well, I bought 550 puts. Now that was painful.
re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by Ole War Skule on 9/29/14 at 3:14 pm to Iowa Golfer
I intend to be long for the winter also, but wanted to sell off and buy back on the next dip. I just had a feel we were reaching resistance at the 16 level and it would drop back down to the 14s or 15s before going higher.
I did buy some 10-3 21 puts for .12, so we'll see how that works.
dang, 550 does sting..I'm only doing lots of 1-200 or so.
good luck
BTW, looks like you had a nice game at Purdue, good D. Maybe we'll see you for the rubber match of our recent bowl series in a playoff game
I did buy some 10-3 21 puts for .12, so we'll see how that works.
dang, 550 does sting..I'm only doing lots of 1-200 or so.
good luck
BTW, looks like you had a nice game at Purdue, good D. Maybe we'll see you for the rubber match of our recent bowl series in a playoff game
re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by Iowa Golfer on 9/29/14 at 4:17 pm to Ole War Skule
D is our O. O is coming around. We're no where near where we think we should be. Like everyone else. I've been to both LSU games. Very good fans. Like us, a couple of idiots, but for the most part very knowledgeable and friendly.
Now Florida. We beat them and next time we played them they were brutal.
South Carolina were decent folks, but we killed them.
I enjoy the road games now more than the home games. It's been that way for quite a while now.
For another thread.
Now Florida. We beat them and next time we played them they were brutal.
South Carolina were decent folks, but we killed them.
I enjoy the road games now more than the home games. It's been that way for quite a while now.
For another thread.
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re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by eng08 on 9/30/14 at 9:50 am to Iowa Golfer
It's still going up.
re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by Iowa Golfer on 9/30/14 at 4:01 pm to eng08
Yes. And since I'm staying put this week, it will drop like hell after Thursday's storage report. My bull call spreads are looking very good however. If the price takes a plunge on Thursday, I'm picking up long calls.
re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by sneakytiger on 9/30/14 at 4:12 pm to Iowa Golfer
Just noticed that despite the rise in the Oct/Nov contracts, the January contract has stayed relatively flat from the beginning of the month.
ETF question for Golfer: If prices continue to stay in a contango environment, how is UNG's NAV affected if the fund has to roll out of a cheaper contract, say December, into a more expensive January contract? That hurts the fund's NAV in the short term right? For example, let's say the January contract gets bid significantly higher in the next 45 days while Nov/Dec stay relatively flat. In this scenario, by the time UNG is actually holding that contract it's already missed out on that appreciation, so all things being equal UNG's NAV stays flat or even declines?
ETF question for Golfer: If prices continue to stay in a contango environment, how is UNG's NAV affected if the fund has to roll out of a cheaper contract, say December, into a more expensive January contract? That hurts the fund's NAV in the short term right? For example, let's say the January contract gets bid significantly higher in the next 45 days while Nov/Dec stay relatively flat. In this scenario, by the time UNG is actually holding that contract it's already missed out on that appreciation, so all things being equal UNG's NAV stays flat or even declines?
re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by Iowa Golfer on 9/30/14 at 4:35 pm to sneakytiger
Yes. You're on the right track. They also have swaps to try to mitigate this. UNG is selling November already. UNG was almost broke once. Frankly all of these paper commodity etf's are scary. People pee themselves over SLV, but I would never own anything except options on this one specifically, and most of them. Read the prospectus. You own nothing many times, and have no right of redemption, or any value at all on an etn.
Contango and backwaration confuse me. We'd be in a backwardation environment as of today, not contango? Appears to me cash is lower than contracts, and Feb is lower than Jan. With respect to the NAV on UNG, there is enough money pouring in to this one that the hits they take almost every month hardly impact it. Wehn prices were going down hard for long periods of time is when they got in to trouble.
Contango and backwaration confuse me. We'd be in a backwardation environment as of today, not contango? Appears to me cash is lower than contracts, and Feb is lower than Jan. With respect to the NAV on UNG, there is enough money pouring in to this one that the hits they take almost every month hardly impact it. Wehn prices were going down hard for long periods of time is when they got in to trouble.
re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by sneakytiger on 9/30/14 at 4:43 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Contango and backwaration confuse me. We'd be in a backwardation environment as of today, not contango? Appears to me cash is lower than contracts, and Feb is lower than Jan.
It all depends on the periods in question. So yes, you are correct in saying the Jan/Feb the curve is backwards. My reference to contango was Nov to Jan. It's a bit more confusing with NG because of the seasonality (predictability? ) vs. the curve for crude contracts, as an example, which is almost entirely backwards i.e. downward sloping.
This post was edited on 9/30 at 4:44 pm
re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by Iowa Golfer on 9/30/14 at 4:54 pm to sneakytiger
Commodities are going to get crushed for the immediate future. And yet? Natty gas.
The above concerns me a bit because the large banks will manipulate the pricing to the extent possible, but natty gas is so volatile, and there are so many hedgers, this many times can overcome the bank's short positions. And weather. And actual demand. And the fact the gubmit considers it vital, so they release a vast amount of information, including tracking the future's contracts. They don't really do that outside of required COT's on gold and silver.
Really the platform right now has no technical resistance to the upward side. I'm not a technical guy, but that's what the chart readers are indicating.
The above concerns me a bit because the large banks will manipulate the pricing to the extent possible, but natty gas is so volatile, and there are so many hedgers, this many times can overcome the bank's short positions. And weather. And actual demand. And the fact the gubmit considers it vital, so they release a vast amount of information, including tracking the future's contracts. They don't really do that outside of required COT's on gold and silver.
Really the platform right now has no technical resistance to the upward side. I'm not a technical guy, but that's what the chart readers are indicating.
re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by Iowa Golfer on 10/1/14 at 7:15 am to Iowa Golfer
Consensus is 106-110. I'm getting tempted to short UNG based on extended hours upward indication.
re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by Ole War Skule on 10/1/14 at 7:22 am to Iowa Golfer
I've got a small put (100 contracts) 10/3 @ 21.5
I should have waited till the last minute and bought them cheap cheap, but thought the fast run up earlier this week wouldn't hold, it has so far
still long UGAZ
I should have waited till the last minute and bought them cheap cheap, but thought the fast run up earlier this week wouldn't hold, it has so far
still long UGAZ
re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by I Love Bama on 10/1/14 at 1:11 pm to Ole War Skule
So we are expecting a pull back on natural gas?
re: BOIL has become predictablePosted by thatguy777 on 10/1/14 at 1:17 pm to Ole War Skule
I bought some 10/3 21.5 puts earlier today for .07....liking what I see so far.
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