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Message
re: BOIL has become predictable
Posted on 9/22/14 at 1:23 pm to L S Usetheforce
Posted on 9/22/14 at 1:23 pm to L S Usetheforce
Not everyone has weighed in yet, but it's starting to look like more downward pressure again this week:
LINK
LINK
1
Posted on 9/22/14 at 3:28 pm to Iowa Golfer
I bought Ung 9/26/2014 weekly $20.50 puts in anticipation of the report on Thursday.
This time I'm going to wait a little bit longer to sell Thursday morning than I did last week.
I think I cost Ole Skule and myself some additional profit last week. I got a little bit too antsy and pulled the trigger too soon. A really foolish mistake. I realize double was god, but when it went up almost 6 times and I missed it, that is really unforgivable. Amateur mistake on my part. I could have, and should have waited. My apologies.
This time I'm going to wait a little bit longer to sell Thursday morning than I did last week.
I think I cost Ole Skule and myself some additional profit last week. I got a little bit too antsy and pulled the trigger too soon. A really foolish mistake. I realize double was god, but when it went up almost 6 times and I missed it, that is really unforgivable. Amateur mistake on my part. I could have, and should have waited. My apologies.
This post was edited on 9/22/14 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 9/23/14 at 5:56 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
I got a little bit too antsy and pulled the trigger too soon.
I was happy to double and am not going to think about what could have been. I"m looking at what I want to do this week, if anything. I'm still long UGAZ, so don't know if I want to also buy a put....will advise soon
ETA: how do you decide between the 20.5 and 21 strikes?
This post was edited on 9/23/14 at 6:20 am
Posted on 9/23/14 at 6:27 am to Ole War Skule
No logic at all other than it's a short term trade and the option expires Friday, so I based my decision purely on lower price and less movement required by the ETF.
Estimates are between 91-95 now.
Estimates are between 91-95 now.
Posted on 9/23/14 at 8:10 am to Iowa Golfer
Setting up for a perfect 3-4 short position if the injection estimates come through on Thursday.
Posted on 9/23/14 at 8:50 am to Iowa Golfer
I'm considering the 21 instead of 20.5 due to higher volume/narrower spreads, but significantly more expensive. Your opinion? What are the tradeoffs?
Posted on 9/23/14 at 8:59 am to Ole War Skule
21's would be fine.
Posted on 9/23/14 at 9:04 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
if the injection estimates come through on Thursday.
What are the estimates you're looking at? Hoping for another +90 bcf
Posted on 9/23/14 at 9:06 am to rintintin
91-94
Posted on 9/23/14 at 9:33 am to Iowa Golfer
watching the so-called real time bids and offers change is pretty instructive about how little I understand this market. I'm trying to buy the 9/26 21 put with a measly 100 contract order and every time I change my limit, all sorts of changes take place on the bid side. Everyone is at .20, ask is .23 and I think I'll up my limit to .21. I see my bid come up on the screen, but somehow, it's now behind from 5-10 other bids...huh? I pull my limit back down to .20 and all the other .21 bids disappear.
I'm using Fidelity Active Trader Pro FWIW
you'd be paranoid too if everyone was out to get you
ETA: guess I should have taken the .23 when I could..ask is up to .37
I'm using Fidelity Active Trader Pro FWIW
you'd be paranoid too if everyone was out to get you
ETA: guess I should have taken the .23 when I could..ask is up to .37
This post was edited on 9/23/14 at 11:18 am
Posted on 9/23/14 at 11:24 am to Ole War Skule
Level 1 would only show current best bid and ask.
Anyway, I bought $20.50's. Rather I'm still buying them. Partial fills all day long so far.
Anyway, I bought $20.50's. Rather I'm still buying them. Partial fills all day long so far.
Posted on 9/23/14 at 12:32 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Level 1 would only show current best bid and ask.
it's level 2, I see lists of bid and ask with contracts/shares, price and exchange
Posted on 9/23/14 at 12:59 pm to Ole War Skule
Go read Flash Boys and you'll get it
Posted on 9/24/14 at 9:58 am to williejameshuft
Is anyone jumping out today in anticipation of the injection report tomorrow? Currently in Ugaz and was hoping to repeat the last 2 weeks of selling around 15 then jumping back in after the report, but we didn't see a run up this week. Thinking about getting out even and buying back after the report.
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
Posted on 9/24/14 at 10:18 am to rintintin
quote:
Is anyone jumping out today
Golfer and Force are the ones you want to hear from.
I'm already long UGAZ, but would buy now if I weren't. Looks to me like the worst case is already priced in, so I'd expect the price to rise, or at worst stay at these levels after the news...but as I said, I'd listen to Golfer or Force, not me
Posted on 9/24/14 at 10:19 am to rintintin
Terrible idea.... Just sit tight...even if ugaz went down to 12.99 it will be transient....
Posted on 9/24/14 at 10:28 am to rintintin
Terrible idea.... Just sit tight...even if ugaz went down to 12.99 it will be transient....
Posted on 9/24/14 at 10:41 am to L S Usetheforce
Terrible enough for 2 posts I'll probably sit tight then.
Posted on 9/24/14 at 10:46 am to rintintin
Phone problems..........
Posted on 9/24/14 at 12:44 pm to L S Usetheforce
I'd short the crap out of natty gas for a one day trade. In fact that's what I'm doing right now.
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