re: BOIL has become predictable

Is that what the gubmint leakage says???

Still long..........this August bump is a common theme............Once first cool front hits early sept it ramps up again..........

I'm long till Late Sept early Oct...........then I reverse the play.

And my guy says 77............

just not hopping in this thread.. are we still talking about BOIL? or what are we talking about? I was long on XLE till yesterday.. picked a good day to get out.

Im still long kold..... 77 was my guys injection estimate....it was 75 today.....im confident this little bump is temporary as injection season is progressing nicely in accordance with eia longterm outlook of 3447....

Historically as I've followed natural gas..... July/August always brings a getting bump.

$UNG or what?

Decent opportunity to exit your shorts today if you wanted to.

I'm reading $4.20 gas this winter, and that's based on another hard winter. Wider variations based on geography though. Someone finally has that figured out.

It really amazes me that to a large degree a lot of guys in this thread have their head around supply demand fundamentals and pricing better than the so called experts.

I went through the government's reports leading up to last winter and through last winter. They're just like the analysts, late to the party. Almost like college football rankings before October. They're always looking backwards.

I suppose it helps that some of you talk to guys at Henry Hub.

I appreciate everyone's insight.

On a macro level, and based on what I think could be deflationary statistics coming out, I'm searching for alternative investments. Outside of long term plays in gold and silver, the commodities market has really under performed. I'm guessing that can't last given what I think I'm seeing and general global unrest.

I've made more money this year in coffee, feeder cattle, live cattle and natural gas than any other place. The coffee bull trade was based on a chart, and historic lows. Feeder cattle and live cattle trades are seasonal, and I have a decent idea what beef producers are saying given where I live. The natural gas I've always dabbled in on a seasonal basis, but I learned so much on here it is now a full time endeavor.

If I look back over all the years I've been both conservative and occasionally tried to hit home runs, one theme always emerges on my successes. I've made money on the half dozen sectors I understand. You can even see that in my trading account. It's all based on industries I somewhat understand. I probably miss a ton of opportunity, and I do have broad market exposure in my tax favored accounts, but I've found I'm really a pretty simple guy who isn't that smart, and best to stick to what I know.

Still planning on buying boil below 32?

Yes in fact I may sell 1000 shares of kold today if boil hits 32.

BOIL @ $32.

yeah..welcome to hell

I'm already down 40% and triple downed at 14 before the release....thought the 14-15 level was SOLID support and we'd bounce back. I'd get at least some back..but NOOOO, drops 4%...I really hate all the 'BOIL' guys in this thread making money on nat gas

ETA: maybe I need to double down on my tripled down position and to get back to even