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Started By
Message
re: BOIL has become predictable
Posted on 7/30/14 at 5:34 pm to sneakytiger
Posted on 7/30/14 at 5:34 pm to sneakytiger
In the money has intrinsic value. At the money might, or might not.
1
Posted on 7/30/14 at 5:39 pm to Iowa Golfer
If the delta is .75 or higher it is DIM (deep in the money). This is what I think you're trying to accomplish, an stock replacement strategy.
I don't explain things well. Let me say this, if you want to go long UNG for Jan, so long as you understand UNG will already be in February future's contracts, a deep in the money contract isn't a bad way to do it.
If you want to price the option go to the CBOE's option's tool found here:
LINK
Play around with this.
I don't explain things well. Let me say this, if you want to go long UNG for Jan, so long as you understand UNG will already be in February future's contracts, a deep in the money contract isn't a bad way to do it.
If you want to price the option go to the CBOE's option's tool found here:
LINK
Play around with this.
Posted on 7/30/14 at 5:50 pm to Iowa Golfer
Want to take some risk? UNG is liquid. Their naked options requirements are only 20%.
Why wouldn't a guy buy a Jan 2015 $20 call and sell a Jan 2015 $20 put? Immediately place a contingent buy to close if UNG hits $19.
It's not that scary, or not as scary as some on here make it out to be. You'll need to watch and risk manage the trade. But really you're out buying 100 shares at $20 if the bottom drops out. So in a worst case scenario you lost the premium on the call, and had 100 shares put to you at $20 less the premium you collected for selling the put. You do get something of value in the end in a worst case scenario.
Why wouldn't a guy buy a Jan 2015 $20 call and sell a Jan 2015 $20 put? Immediately place a contingent buy to close if UNG hits $19.
It's not that scary, or not as scary as some on here make it out to be. You'll need to watch and risk manage the trade. But really you're out buying 100 shares at $20 if the bottom drops out. So in a worst case scenario you lost the premium on the call, and had 100 shares put to you at $20 less the premium you collected for selling the put. You do get something of value in the end in a worst case scenario.
This post was edited on 7/30/14 at 5:53 pm
Posted on 7/30/14 at 6:51 pm to Iowa Golfer
Honestly that seems less risky than just going straight up long on calls or puts, as long as you can manage it, as you say.
Posted on 7/30/14 at 7:09 pm to sneakytiger
Yes and No. If NG falls through the floor you could be forced to buy something at $20 that is trading for $3. NG won't go through the floor, but UNG has almost been BK before.
I do think I'm going to sell puts on NG contracts. Maybe UNG, but I'm not sure about that yet.
I just post a lot of strategy on here. Think through it in public and sometimes I get good feedback.
All b.s aside, they're some really smart guys on the money board. There are some that are pretty conservative. Some closed minded. Some let preconceived notions, not always accurate, temper their insight. But these guys are helpful also. In their own way.
No one has the magic answer. If I have a year where I have 55% winners, and I loss control and risk manage the other 45%, it's really a good year. Controlling losses let winners be what they are. Winners.
I do think I'm going to sell puts on NG contracts. Maybe UNG, but I'm not sure about that yet.
I just post a lot of strategy on here. Think through it in public and sometimes I get good feedback.
All b.s aside, they're some really smart guys on the money board. There are some that are pretty conservative. Some closed minded. Some let preconceived notions, not always accurate, temper their insight. But these guys are helpful also. In their own way.
No one has the magic answer. If I have a year where I have 55% winners, and I loss control and risk manage the other 45%, it's really a good year. Controlling losses let winners be what they are. Winners.
Posted on 7/30/14 at 7:17 pm to Iowa Golfer
The money talk keeps Me grounded from being overly aggressive or ultra conservative.
I think tomorrow may be a great day.
I think tomorrow may be a great day.
Posted on 7/30/14 at 7:31 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Yes and No. If NG falls through the floor you could be forced to buy something at $20 that is trading for $3. NG won't go through the floor, but UNG has almost been BK before.
Right, but that's where the contingent buy to close comes in right? Buy back and reevaluate while keeping exposure on the other side. Seems like you gain a lot more leverage for taking on manageable risk.
Posted on 7/30/14 at 8:22 pm to sneakytiger
I'm pretty careful. You have it about right. There is risk, but again the risk is like $2,100 for every long synthetic, or what is sometimes called a bull risk reversal. Buy a call, sell a put is the equivalent of a long stock position at a cost of under $100 instead of $2,100 at entry. Maximum loss in both cases is about the same, and maximum loss is unlikely.
Posted on 7/30/14 at 8:25 pm to Iowa Golfer
Posted on 7/30/14 at 9:47 pm to Iowa Golfer
Futures are trading up a tick this evening. I'm going to watch pre report tomorrow. No other reason right now other than to further cement my belief that the contents of the report are being leaked.
I'm sure they had an epic selective power surge just like the irs did. Hit some bureaucrats laptops and they sent out information the rest of us don't get until later tomorrow morning.
I'm sure they had an epic selective power surge just like the irs did. Hit some bureaucrats laptops and they sent out information the rest of us don't get until later tomorrow morning.
Posted on 7/30/14 at 10:56 pm to Iowa Golfer
Yeah we are starting to see that more(leakage) but this storage report is for the WEEK BEFORE.......Aug injections may break 100 for first time ever.
Got a buddy in Chicago who hasn't ran his AC in a week.
Got a buddy in Chicago who hasn't ran his AC in a week.
This post was edited on 7/30/14 at 10:57 pm
Posted on 7/31/14 at 9:39 am to L S Usetheforce
+88
Hopefully next week it rebounds.
Hopefully next week it rebounds.
Posted on 7/31/14 at 9:47 am to rintintin
Delays my going long. Also confirms my suspicion that some gubmit employee leaks this stuff. Probably to large banks.
And yet all of us on here still scrape some profit off of this series of trades. I suspect there are many Ivy League guys on here.
And yet all of us on here still scrape some profit off of this series of trades. I suspect there are many Ivy League guys on here.
Posted on 7/31/14 at 9:52 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:Your anger and resentment towards large banks continues to reveal themselves.
Probably to large banks.
Posted on 7/31/14 at 9:57 am to LSURussian
I recognize that. I have my reasons, not the least of which is their arrogance and the uneven playing field they create and get to use.
Why wouldn't I be angry when the bankers on here post arrogant slams at guys like the OP on this thread? I just give it back and they can't seem to take it, or even understand why I give it back.
I'm self confident to the point of arrogance. I recognize this and work on it. Others should try. At least to be self aware.
Not directed at you by the way. Just some general comments.
Why wouldn't I be angry when the bankers on here post arrogant slams at guys like the OP on this thread? I just give it back and they can't seem to take it, or even understand why I give it back.
I'm self confident to the point of arrogance. I recognize this and work on it. Others should try. At least to be self aware.
Not directed at you by the way. Just some general comments.
Posted on 7/31/14 at 10:14 am to Iowa Golfer
Its not time yet..... I like what the next two weeks Have in store weather wise
Posted on 7/31/14 at 10:27 am to Iowa Golfer
Has your shrink ever used the word "paranoid" in your counseling sessions?
Posted on 7/31/14 at 10:28 am to L S Usetheforce
I'll be long by August 10th. It is really remarkable what the NG producers have done given the injection/storage deficit and distribution issues.
I've learned quite a lot about the speculators driving up the cash prices. From the COT reports I think we all know who is doing this. No matter, as long as we recognize it and use it to our benefit it is in our best interest.
Frustrating, I sweated to make $33K, and they made millions. Maybe billions.
I've learned quite a lot about the speculators driving up the cash prices. From the COT reports I think we all know who is doing this. No matter, as long as we recognize it and use it to our benefit it is in our best interest.
Frustrating, I sweated to make $33K, and they made millions. Maybe billions.
Posted on 8/4/14 at 2:43 pm to Iowa Golfer
Force, let us know when you plan on exiting your short position... You still thinking a week or two out?
Posted on 8/4/14 at 2:45 pm to TheBigHurt
Yeah this week's injection is from last week's cool spell
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