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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 7
Posted on 10/7/13 at 8:23 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
Posted on 10/7/13 at 8:23 pm to HoLeInOnEr05
Interdasting indeed...
1
Posted on 10/8/13 at 1:23 am to Billy Mays
Just thought I would share this...
My initial numbers have given me a few teams that are dogs, that should be favored.
Zona should be between 2 to 4 point faves
Navy should be between 2 to 4.5 point faves
Georgia Tech should be between a pk to 1.5 point faves
SJSU should be between 4 to 7 point faves
Syracuse should be between 1 to 3 point faves
Oregon St should be between 4 and 5 point faves
Take those fwiw. Last week my numbers gave me 4 teams like this, and 3 hit, and 1 pushed. I'm not liking SJSU this week for the simple fact that teams coming back from Hawaii have an atrocious ATS record for the following week.
My initial numbers have given me a few teams that are dogs, that should be favored.
Zona should be between 2 to 4 point faves
Navy should be between 2 to 4.5 point faves
Georgia Tech should be between a pk to 1.5 point faves
SJSU should be between 4 to 7 point faves
Syracuse should be between 1 to 3 point faves
Oregon St should be between 4 and 5 point faves
Take those fwiw. Last week my numbers gave me 4 teams like this, and 3 hit, and 1 pushed. I'm not liking SJSU this week for the simple fact that teams coming back from Hawaii have an atrocious ATS record for the following week.
Posted on 10/8/13 at 1:26 am to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:
Jarvis Landry left practice in walking boot? :kern:
No way he doesn't play. Hopefully it drops the line.
I like Arizona. I don't think Orgeron is going to have the boys ready to play.
This post was edited on 10/8/13 at 1:27 am
Posted on 10/8/13 at 1:49 am to Sader1990
Too many points -- I agree. I'd lean NW.
Posted on 10/8/13 at 4:36 am to bobbyray21
Week 7 Preliminary Ramblings:
Louisville-17.5 v. Rutgers: I think this spread is too high. Louisville is way overvalued right now and has yet to play a team with a pulse. Indeed, the best team that Louisville has played was Kentucky, and they beat them 27-13. Color me unimpressed. I don’t doubt that Teddy Ballgame will be able to put some points on the board for the Cardinals, but Rutgers has shown that they can score, and Louisville isn’t a defensive juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination. I set this line at Louisville-11.5. I’m probably gonna take Rutgers and the points.
SDSU-4 @ Air Force: Both of these teams are terrible, but Air Force is definitely worse. And the normal advantage that the home team has in these Thursday night games is ameliorated by the fact that SDSU played on Friday last week, and so it isn’t as quick a turnaround for them. I’m probably gonna toss down on both SDSU ATS and SDSU on the ML.
Arizona+6.5 @ USC: I think the wrong team is favored here. USC’s best player is questionable for this game, their coach just got fired and their current coach is none other than Yaw Yaw Footbaw, Yaw Yaw Brent Schaeffer. I just don’t see this team is going to focused or organized. On top of all that, I Arizona might just be the better team straight away. Ka’deem Carey is realer than real deal holyfiled and Zona has shown that they can put points on the board. I think Arizona wins outright. Am I missing something? Please speak up if I am.
Oklahoma-14.5 v. Texas: This is too many points, but I just can’t bring myself to bet on Mack Brown.
Indiana+9.5 @ Sparty: Indiana can score. They might win this game outright.
Pitt v. Va. Tech; I’d rather get kicked square in the dick than watch this game. No play
USF v. Uconn: My prediction is 0-0. So maybe I should take USF and the points. What a cripple fight.
TTU-15.5 v. Iowa St.: Kliff Kingsbury has been a covering machine this year. I’m inclined to ride it out. Their QB got hurt against Kansas and may not play against Iowa State, but I’m not certain this is a huge deal. The starting QB was a walk-on anyway, and the backup has gotten significant reps at various points throughout the season. I think they would do just peachy with the backup.
UGA v. Mizzou: I set this spread at UGA-9, so I’m prolly gonna lay off this one.
Hipster Miami v. UMass: speaking of cripple fight. Gross.
Clemson-26 v. BC: the spreads are starting to catch up with Clemson. This spread seems about right.
GSU+18 v. Troy: I know Georgia State blows, but I don’t think Troy should be giving 18 points to a fricking high school team.
Baylor-18 @ Kansas State: Baylor all day, err day. I want to see a team slow them down. Until then, I’m on Baylor so long as the spread is reasonable, and this one is.
LSU-7.5 v. Florida: I like LSU in this one. I’ll likely take them both on the ML and ATS. I know LSU’s defense is a little suspect, but what the frick is Big Dumb Will Muschamp Offense gonna do about that? I’ll tell you what: not a goddamn thing. Just like usual. And, yes, Florida’s defense is pretty good, but I’m really impressed with LSU’s offense. They have a balanced attack with a solid RB in Hill, a solid QB in Mett, and two elite receivers. Seriously, y’all (and I’m speaking to LSU fans) can talk up Mett all you want, but his receivers are making him look really good. Those guys just go up and get the ball. I see this game as about 31-21 LSU, so maybe the ATS play isn’t a sure sure thing. But I don’t see Florida winning the game outright, so I’m definitely gonna be trying the ML on for size.
Northwestern +10.5 @ Wiscy: I think these teams are equal. Maybe Wiscy is a little better but not much. I had this one as Wiscy-6.5 And so I’m inclined to take Nw and the points.
Rice-3 @ UTSA: I’ve been on Rice all year.
Oregon-14.5 @ WashU: I like WashU a lot this year. I’ve won money betting on them a few times. There is no denying they are a solid team. But Oregon is on a different level, and will smoke them. I’ll be on this spread, and I’ll be taking Oregon on the ML. And I won’t be shy about either one.
Stanford-9 @ Utah: Is this a fricking misprint? Is Vegas confused? Utah isn’t any good. Stanford should roll without difficulty. I’m going to be laying some wood on this one as well.
GT+6 @ BYU: I think the Rambling Wreck win this one outright. They’re a solid team this year.
Texas State-7 v. UL-Monroe: UL-Monroe is a festering cesspool. They’re just atrocious at football. I’ll keep beating against them until Vegas makes it impracticable.
Boise-7.5 @ Utah State: Utah State would have won this game with Chuckie Keeton. But Chuckie Keeton is out for the year, and now they’ll lose, and they’ll lose comfortably.
TAMU-7 @ Ole Miss: I actually still think Ole Miss is a good team, but they don’t have the offensive explosiveness to win a shootout against Scooby Football. And that’s exactly what every game against TAMU ends up being. Either that, or a blowout, but rest assured TAMU will score plenty. And I think they’ll cover and definitely win.
Louisville-17.5 v. Rutgers: I think this spread is too high. Louisville is way overvalued right now and has yet to play a team with a pulse. Indeed, the best team that Louisville has played was Kentucky, and they beat them 27-13. Color me unimpressed. I don’t doubt that Teddy Ballgame will be able to put some points on the board for the Cardinals, but Rutgers has shown that they can score, and Louisville isn’t a defensive juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination. I set this line at Louisville-11.5. I’m probably gonna take Rutgers and the points.
SDSU-4 @ Air Force: Both of these teams are terrible, but Air Force is definitely worse. And the normal advantage that the home team has in these Thursday night games is ameliorated by the fact that SDSU played on Friday last week, and so it isn’t as quick a turnaround for them. I’m probably gonna toss down on both SDSU ATS and SDSU on the ML.
Arizona+6.5 @ USC: I think the wrong team is favored here. USC’s best player is questionable for this game, their coach just got fired and their current coach is none other than Yaw Yaw Footbaw, Yaw Yaw Brent Schaeffer. I just don’t see this team is going to focused or organized. On top of all that, I Arizona might just be the better team straight away. Ka’deem Carey is realer than real deal holyfiled and Zona has shown that they can put points on the board. I think Arizona wins outright. Am I missing something? Please speak up if I am.
Oklahoma-14.5 v. Texas: This is too many points, but I just can’t bring myself to bet on Mack Brown.
Indiana+9.5 @ Sparty: Indiana can score. They might win this game outright.
Pitt v. Va. Tech; I’d rather get kicked square in the dick than watch this game. No play
USF v. Uconn: My prediction is 0-0. So maybe I should take USF and the points. What a cripple fight.
TTU-15.5 v. Iowa St.: Kliff Kingsbury has been a covering machine this year. I’m inclined to ride it out. Their QB got hurt against Kansas and may not play against Iowa State, but I’m not certain this is a huge deal. The starting QB was a walk-on anyway, and the backup has gotten significant reps at various points throughout the season. I think they would do just peachy with the backup.
UGA v. Mizzou: I set this spread at UGA-9, so I’m prolly gonna lay off this one.
Hipster Miami v. UMass: speaking of cripple fight. Gross.
Clemson-26 v. BC: the spreads are starting to catch up with Clemson. This spread seems about right.
GSU+18 v. Troy: I know Georgia State blows, but I don’t think Troy should be giving 18 points to a fricking high school team.
Baylor-18 @ Kansas State: Baylor all day, err day. I want to see a team slow them down. Until then, I’m on Baylor so long as the spread is reasonable, and this one is.
LSU-7.5 v. Florida: I like LSU in this one. I’ll likely take them both on the ML and ATS. I know LSU’s defense is a little suspect, but what the frick is Big Dumb Will Muschamp Offense gonna do about that? I’ll tell you what: not a goddamn thing. Just like usual. And, yes, Florida’s defense is pretty good, but I’m really impressed with LSU’s offense. They have a balanced attack with a solid RB in Hill, a solid QB in Mett, and two elite receivers. Seriously, y’all (and I’m speaking to LSU fans) can talk up Mett all you want, but his receivers are making him look really good. Those guys just go up and get the ball. I see this game as about 31-21 LSU, so maybe the ATS play isn’t a sure sure thing. But I don’t see Florida winning the game outright, so I’m definitely gonna be trying the ML on for size.
Northwestern +10.5 @ Wiscy: I think these teams are equal. Maybe Wiscy is a little better but not much. I had this one as Wiscy-6.5 And so I’m inclined to take Nw and the points.
Rice-3 @ UTSA: I’ve been on Rice all year.
Oregon-14.5 @ WashU: I like WashU a lot this year. I’ve won money betting on them a few times. There is no denying they are a solid team. But Oregon is on a different level, and will smoke them. I’ll be on this spread, and I’ll be taking Oregon on the ML. And I won’t be shy about either one.
Stanford-9 @ Utah: Is this a fricking misprint? Is Vegas confused? Utah isn’t any good. Stanford should roll without difficulty. I’m going to be laying some wood on this one as well.
GT+6 @ BYU: I think the Rambling Wreck win this one outright. They’re a solid team this year.
Texas State-7 v. UL-Monroe: UL-Monroe is a festering cesspool. They’re just atrocious at football. I’ll keep beating against them until Vegas makes it impracticable.
Boise-7.5 @ Utah State: Utah State would have won this game with Chuckie Keeton. But Chuckie Keeton is out for the year, and now they’ll lose, and they’ll lose comfortably.
TAMU-7 @ Ole Miss: I actually still think Ole Miss is a good team, but they don’t have the offensive explosiveness to win a shootout against Scooby Football. And that’s exactly what every game against TAMU ends up being. Either that, or a blowout, but rest assured TAMU will score plenty. And I think they’ll cover and definitely win.
This post was edited on 10/8/13 at 4:40 am
Posted on 10/8/13 at 8:33 am to bobbyray21
Several of those are on the wrong side of 7 or 10 (Zona, Indy, LSU, NW, Ore, Boise). Think they'll move in the right direction?
ETA: More importantly, will they head in the wrong direction? I don't mind buying the hook now if so.
ETA: More importantly, will they head in the wrong direction? I don't mind buying the hook now if so.
This post was edited on 10/8/13 at 8:38 am
Posted on 10/8/13 at 8:59 am to bobbyray21
quote:
Louisville-17.5 v. Rutgers: I think this spread is too high.
Agree. Louisville looked very lackluster against Temple this week. I like Rutgers to keep it within 17.
quote:
Arizona+6.5 @ USC:
USC sucks. I think Carey will run for 250 yards and Arizona wins the football game.
quote:
Baylor-18 @ Kansas State
3 units on Baylor please.
quote:At first I didn't really like the -7. I will be at this game and your write up just convinced me to lay at least 1 unit on lSU -7.
LSU-7.5 v. Florida:
quote:
Northwestern +10.5 @ Wiscy:
Really like Northwestern here. Just seems like too many points even coming off of that heartbreaking loss.
quote:
Oregon-14.5 @ WashU:
Another 3 units here thank you.
quote:
TAMU-7 @ Ole Miss:
A&Ms defense sucks balls, but I'm not sure what Ole Miss has done that would make anyone think they can possibly keep up with Manziel.
This post was edited on 10/8/13 at 9:00 am
Posted on 10/8/13 at 9:12 am to PurpleAndGold86
Here is my .02 on the Florida/LSU matchup.
What defense has LSU faced this year? Not taking anything away from them bc ODB, Beckham, and company are legit. Florida has possibly the best D in the country, albeit they haven't faced an offense like LSUs either.
Now on to Floridas offense. I think they are very underrated. Muschamp doesn't give a frick about style points, he's a grinder. LSU is very vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball, as you all know. Muschamp is going to grind every last second he can out of that game clock. I think this game comes down to a late drive by LSU to seal the deal.
What defense has LSU faced this year? Not taking anything away from them bc ODB, Beckham, and company are legit. Florida has possibly the best D in the country, albeit they haven't faced an offense like LSUs either.
Now on to Floridas offense. I think they are very underrated. Muschamp doesn't give a frick about style points, he's a grinder. LSU is very vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball, as you all know. Muschamp is going to grind every last second he can out of that game clock. I think this game comes down to a late drive by LSU to seal the deal.
Posted on 10/8/13 at 9:15 am to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:
What defense has LSU faced this year?
TCU has a good defense. They may not be the team everyone thought they were going to be at the beginning of the year, but they actually have a pretty damn good secondary. Devonte Fields did not play which is obviously a huge difference maker for them.
Outside of that? MSU is mediocre. All of the other ones were shite.
This will be a real test for LSU's offense, but given that the game is at home and the offense is coming off of their biggest showing of the year following the disappointing loss, I think they will still be able to score around 28-31.
If LSU can play defense like they did in the second half of the MSU game, they will be ok. BIG IF though for sure.
Posted on 10/8/13 at 9:27 am to HoLeInOnEr05
What's the reason to favor Navy in this game? Duke is playing at home and has already seen a triple option offense playing Ga Tech. If Navy gets behind it's game over.
Posted on 10/8/13 at 9:30 am to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
Ka’deem Carey is realer than real deal holyfiled
I'm taking Arizona now just because you said realer than real deal Holyfield
Posted on 10/8/13 at 9:30 am to CarolinaSoCocky
Dukes home field isn't exactly Death Valley. And Dukes D got gashed by that triple option.
Posted on 10/8/13 at 9:39 am to HoLeInOnEr05
But Techs offense is better than Navy's plus they cannot pass.
Posted on 10/8/13 at 9:46 am to CarolinaSoCocky
Just giving out what my numbers gave.
And here's one y'all will laugh at... Have the Mississippi St/Bowling Green game as close to a pick em.
And here's one y'all will laugh at... Have the Mississippi St/Bowling Green game as close to a pick em.
Posted on 10/8/13 at 10:20 am to HoLeInOnEr05
Thinking of doing a 4 team teaser...Can't decide on Stanford or NW for the 4th. Anyone with opinions on this?
ARIZONA U +12-110
LSU -1½-110
OREGON -8-110
NORTHWESTERN +16½-110
STANFORD -3-110
ARIZONA U +12-110
LSU -1½-110
OREGON -8-110
NORTHWESTERN +16½-110
STANFORD -3-110
Posted on 10/8/13 at 10:47 am to CarolinaSoCocky
quote:
What's the reason to favor Navy in this game? Duke is playing at home and has already seen a triple option offense playing Ga Tech. If Navy gets behind it's game over.
Duke's QB is injured. I was thinking about taking Duke, but they have zero defense; they seem to win all their games like 42-35. But will the down grade from starting QB to backup QB cost them a touchdown or two? I'm not sure, but it gives me enough doubt to lay off, or at least set it aside for now until I figure out more info on the QB situation.
Posted on 10/8/13 at 10:50 am to bobbyray21
Balled out at the casino last night.
Only finished up $125, but damn had a good time.
Only finished up $125, but damn had a good time.
Posted on 10/8/13 at 10:50 am to HoLeInOnEr05
quote:
And here's one y'all will laugh at... Have the Mississippi St/Bowling Green game as close to a pick em.
I'm not laughing. Bowling Green is goooood this year. They may win that game.
Posted on 10/8/13 at 10:55 am to bobbyray21
They are pretty decent. Only thing that scares me is the only "decent" team theyve played this year was Indiana and was shut down
Posted on 10/8/13 at 10:56 am to bobbyray21
quote:
Duke's QB is injured.
Thank you for that piece of information.
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