Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there - Page 6 - TigerDroppings.com

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Rex
LSU Fan
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Member since Sep 2004
54250 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


I never said it was "clear cut". I can understand the more timid approach in that situation, but I don't agree it was the "safer" choice.

quote:

It was a very close decision statistically.

87% to 13% is not very close statistically.






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Breesus
New Orleans Saints Fan
House of the Rising Sun
Member since Jan 2010
24529 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


quote:

don't agree it was the "safer" choice.


it was the right choice. force them to score a TD not give them the option of a field goal and overtime.






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BarbeTiger
New Orleans Saints Fan
Mr. White's Lab Yo
Member since Jan 2012
5073 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


quote:

Yes, which means that regardless of Payton's decision the Saints were the probable winner. My opinion, though, is the one which would have been wiser and is supported by history.


Who cares? You're one of those never satisfies kind of people.






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Rex
LSU Fan
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Member since Sep 2004
54250 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


quote:

By kicking the field goal we forced them to go for it rather than kick a field goal.

You don't say! We also gave them an opportunity to win.

We forced them to go 80 yards... they went 77... instead of 65 to 70. Neither was a certainty.

Now shut up.







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Fox Mulder
Tulane Fan
Austin, TX
Member since Dec 2010
22035 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


Rex is going for a datty.





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moneyg
LSU Fan
Member since Jun 2006
18772 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


quote:

87% is the stat in your typical situation. Payton knows our chances better than anyone. We weren't playing the jaguars. This was a good team, we struggled in that area, and payton made the right call.



That's why I'm saying that Payton's decision was reasonable. You are wrong to adamantly call it "right". It was a 50/50 type of call. He made the best decision he could based on all of the information he had at present.

quote:

The falcons moving down the field the way they did in the time they did absolutely proves this was the right call.


No it does not. If fact that the Falcons had the ball inside the 10 quickly enough that time wasn't even a factor could easily support an argument that Payton's decision was the wrong one. If you knew the Falcons were going to threaten for a TD, you take your chances converting on 4th down.

quote:

I'm not saying we would not have made it, but a league wide stat not tailored to the game situation doesn't really mean shite as to whether or not payton made the right call.



That is exactly my point and exactly why anyone saying that the decision was clearly right or clearly wrong is incorrect.








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moneyg
LSU Fan
Member since Jun 2006
18772 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


quote:

87% to 13% is not very close statistically.



The situation the Saints were in at the time of the decision was 87% to win (if we failed to convert) vs. 75% (if we decided to kick the FG).

Please explain where you got the 13%?






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Fox Mulder
Tulane Fan
Austin, TX
Member since Dec 2010
22035 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


quote:

You are wrong to adamantly call it "right".


no, I'd be wrong to call going for it "wrong" going for it is still a percentage. we don't know if it is right or wrong. Payton presumably reasoned that the falcons will get into FG range, he liked our chances of keeping them out of the endzone better. He'd rather have a sure 6 than a gamble between 3 and 10. Bottom line, he put faith in the D and whether the falcons came up 2 yards short or 50 yards short, he was right in making that call.

IMO, and that is all it is, everything played out how he expected in the scenario of being up 6. That was a winning scenario. RIGHT CALL.







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moneyg
LSU Fan
Member since Jun 2006
18772 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


quote:

no, I'd be wrong to call going for it "wrong" going for it is still a percentage. we don't know if it is right or wrong. Payton presumably reasoned that the falcons will get into FG range, he liked our chances of keeping them out of the endzone better. He'd rather have a sure 6 than a gamble between 3 and 10. Bottom line, he put faith in the D and whether the falcons came up 2 yards short or 50 yards short, he was right in making that call.

IMO, and that is all it is, everything played out how he expected in the scenario of being up 6. That was a winning scenario. RIGHT CALL.



Payton made the decision he did because he thought the chances of us:

a.) keeping Atlanta out of the end zone
plus
b.) moving the ball for a game winning FG should Atlanta score a TD


were better than our chances of


a.) converting on 4th down
plus
b.) failing to convert but still stopping Atlanta from kicking a FG
plus
c.) failing to convert, give up a FG to Atl and still win in overtime
plus
d.) fail to convert, give up a TD to Atl, and put together a TD winning drive

I'm telling you that the percentages in both scenario's are very close. Either call is reasonable. Neither call is "wrong".

However, to point to the fact that Atlanta quickly and easily moved the ball inside our 10 yard line with plenty of time to spare as evidence that Payton's decision to kick the FG was a good one is ridiculous. If Atlanta had moved to ball to our 40 with only 5 seconds left and thus would have been in a position to tie the game but instead had to go for a hail mary due to Payton's decision, then your argument would make sense.

I can guarantee you that if the NFL gods had informed Payton that his defense would have been facing 1st and goal with 1 minute remaining on the clock he absolutely without a doubt would have decided to go for it on 4th down. No question.



This post was edited on 9/9 at 2:58 pm


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Fox Mulder
Tulane Fan
Austin, TX
Member since Dec 2010
22035 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


quote:

can guarantee you that if the NFL gods had informed Payton that his defense would have been facing 1st and goal with 1 minute remaining on the clock he absolutely without a doubt would have decided to go for it on 4th down. No question.


what if they informed him that atlanta wouldn't have scored a TD? look, we disagree and not in the rex being a belligerent moron way. It was tighter than any of us would have liked. Either call is justifiable. It's close, but one call lead us to victory...it is indisputable. let's move on.






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moneyg
LSU Fan
Member since Jun 2006
18772 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


quote:

Either call is justifiable


I agree.






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htran90
New Orleans Saints Fan
belle chasse
Member since Dec 2012
4397 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


Unlike what some of you believe, payton KNOWS that atlanta and matt ryan are a formidable team/qb. he knows and have seen that they CAN drive down the field with ease and kick a field goal to send it to overtime. so why not force them to score a TD by kicking a field goal.

greer and the worst defense in history had a great goal line stand last year if some of you remember.






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Breesus
New Orleans Saints Fan
House of the Rising Sun
Member since Jan 2010
24529 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


quote:

Jenkins and the worst defense in history had a great goal line stand last year if some of you remember.



yup






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ChewyDante
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Jan 2007
8691 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


quote:

I agree with this. It is a logic flaw to use hindsight to support/argue against a 50/50 type of call.

However, it is also faulty to definitively call either decision absolutely correct...or absolutely wrong. The percentages were close enough that a subjective decision to go one way or another by the coach was very reasonable.

Was it more likely that this specific Saints defense against that Atl offense gives up a TD in the time remaining? (keep in mind, there was also a chance that Atlanta scores a TD and the Saints still win by putting together a game winning FG drive. You need to consider that.)

Or, is it more likely that the Saints convert on 4th down and 2?

It isn't clear cut. Anyone saying different is incorrect.

What is clear cut is that the timeout decisions (to use one when we had the ball on 4th down and to not use one after Atl's 2nd down and goal) were absolutely poor decisions and hurt the teams chances of winning the game.



fricking thank you. After revisiting this thread I was shocked at some of the moronic posts I was reading. You have spared me the need to give a detailed response explaining the idiotic logic. Either call was reasonable, it was a matter of balancing risk/reward and making a judgment call.






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landrywasbeast30
Member since Nov 2011
1262 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


I enjoy the irony in this thread with so many people calling Rex a moron while overlooking so many factors. Yes, the Saints had a great win. Maybe I missed something, but isn't this a message board to discuss all things Saints? Are we not allowed to look back and wonder about things if the Saints win?

I didn't see Rex complaining. He brought up a legit question that many people are wondering about.

Some idiot basically implied that coaches don't ever make mistakes or bad calls. Surely that person is joking.

Everyone is calling Rex an idiot, but Bayou is clearly the biggest idiot in this thread. A touchdown beats us either way genius.

In the moment, before we know the outcome of the game, going for it is the best call there. You play the percentages, and going for it gives you the best chance to win. You can't look back in hindsight based on the outcome. It is like Bama/LSU last year, except the Saints were actually in a better position to go for the win than LSU was.

Simply put, if they make it, game is over. If they don't, Atlanta still has a long way to go to tie the game, and still wins with a td. The biggest thing some of you are leaving out is that if the Saints don't make it, Atlanta is starting inside the 5 yard line. That's a big part of the discussion being left out by people calling Rex an idiot. By kicking the fg, the Saints allow Atlanta better starting field position.

Either way, there is nothing wrong with discussing this. Anyone saying otherwise I guess just doesn't like thinking too much about things.



This post was edited on 9/10 at 2:53 am


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Hoodoo Man
LSU Fan
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Member since Oct 2011
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re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there








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landrywasbeast30
Member since Nov 2011
1262 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


I am of the opinion the OP asked a legit question that's okay to talk about. Better?


This post was edited on 9/10 at 1:35 am


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TC16
Florida State Fan
Louisiana
Member since Feb 2010
2282 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


quote:

Hoodoo Man







This post was edited on 9/10 at 2:31 am


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Bayou
LSU Fan
Arizona Desert
Member since Feb 2005
24206 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


Coach made the right call.
May this thread now die.






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alajones
LSU Fan
Hell
Member since Oct 2005
21766 posts

re: Sorry, but Payton should have gone for the first down there


quote:

Maybe I missed something, but isn't this a message board to discuss all things Saints? Are we not allowed to look back and wonder about things if the Saints win?

No. You must be new here.

quote:

Some idiot basically implied that coaches don't ever make mistakes or bad calls. Surely that person is joking.
No, you're just new.


All hail Payton and Loomis. They are never wrong.







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