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re: Why Vegas thinks TCU has a good shot vs LSU
Posted on 8/22/13 at 1:46 pm to themunch
Posted on 8/22/13 at 1:46 pm to themunch
quote:
It seems to me that there are many games where LSU does not cover the spread and likewise LSU does not allow the opposing team to cover the spread.
You lost me with this
ETA: Unless you are only referring to "covering" as the favorite in a particular game and are saying that LSU does not allow opponents to cover when LSU is the dog in a game. I.e. Bama 2012?
If that's what you mean, then go back and take a look at 2011.
This post was edited on 8/22/13 at 1:48 pm
2
Posted on 8/22/13 at 1:51 pm to PurpleAndGold86
I do not bet on games, but there are many games where LSU does not win by the gaming margin. When LSU is picked to lose which lately has not been many times, the team that beats them does not cover the spread either. The opposition might win but gamblers lose. LSU wins and again gamblers using the Vegas spread lose. That is what I have noticed in recent years, say the last ten.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 1:53 pm to PurpleAndGold86
I am not saying it is for every case but a majority.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 1:54 pm to themunch
quote:
When LSU is picked to lose which lately has not been many times
link?
Posted on 8/22/13 at 1:54 pm to themunch
quote:
The opposition might win but gamblers lose.
Not if you bet on the underdog which is pretty common among those that bet.
quote:
That is what I have noticed in recent years, say the last ten.
Well like I said, go back and take a look at 2011 because we covered the spread in pretty much every single game we played sans like 2.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 1:54 pm to More beer please
Its articles like this that make me not read articles like this. Its the same logic as when people say "Bama lost 10 starters and will reload. LSU lost 10 starters and probably will take a step back this year due to lack of experience."
Why the frick can certain team reload and others cant when theyve been signing the same caliber of players?
Why the frick can certain team reload and others cant when theyve been signing the same caliber of players?
Posted on 8/22/13 at 1:54 pm to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
LSU will be able to run the football at will against their DL which will be decimated without Fields. I also believe LSU will be able to throw the ball effectively against them with CC at the helm.
I remember Wisconsin saying the same thing
Posted on 8/22/13 at 1:55 pm to goldennugget
quote:
I remember Wisconsin saying the same thing
Ok.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 1:55 pm to goldennugget
quote:
I remember Wisconsin saying the same thing
Wisconsin had Cam Cameron running their offense? I must have missed that.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 1:55 pm to goldennugget
quote:
I remember Wisconsin saying the same thing
Good thing wisconsin doesnt play in the SEC. And TCU has only ever faced Vandy...once
Posted on 8/22/13 at 1:56 pm to lsuhunt555
quote:
Why the frick can certain team reload and others cant when theyve been signing the same caliber of players?
Don't get too worked up. People will realize pretty quickly that this defense is full of star studded talent.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 1:56 pm to lsuhunt555
quote:
Why the frick can certain team reload and others cant when theyve been signing the same caliber of players?
If the article implied that TCU has signed the same caliber of players that LSU has over recent years, the writer is dumber than I thought.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 1:57 pm to ProjectP2294
quote:
If the article implied that TCU has signed the same caliber of players that LSU has over recent years, the writer is dumber than I thought.
Sounds like Bleeding Purple
Posted on 8/22/13 at 1:57 pm to More beer please
quote:
Why Vegas thinks TCU has a good shot vs LSU
Because people are betting on TCU
Vegas doesn't predict outcomes, they don't think LSU will win by 3-4 points and they could care less. They're just trying to get equal action on both teams, and 3.5 is the number they've found to do it.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 1:58 pm to lsuhunt555
quote:
Why the frick can certain team reload and others cant when theyve been signing the same caliber of players?
Because they are back to back national champs with a coach everyone trusts in Saban.
We are coming off a bowl loss and people think Miles is aloof.
It is what it is.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 1:58 pm to bigpapamac
quote:
Because people are betting on TCU
No one is betting on TCU. On SportsBook the action is listed as 96% LSU and 4% TCU.
quote:
They're just trying to get equal action on both teams
Then they need to raise the spread to about 10.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 1:59 pm to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
Don't get too worked up. People will realize pretty quickly that this defense is full of star studded talent.
It just irks me how stupid people are. Its like they believe Bama is signing 3 year NFL players and everyone else is signing D3 level players.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 2:00 pm to More beer please
quote:
Seems like our youth is a weakness and theirs is a strength
Makes sense to me.
Posted on 8/22/13 at 2:00 pm to bigpapamac
quote:
Because people are betting on TCU Vegas doesn't predict outcomes, they don't think LSU will win by 3-4 points and they could care less. They're just trying to get equal action on both teams, and 3.5 is the number they've found to do it
Is that really how that works?
Posted on 8/22/13 at 2:00 pm to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
No one is betting on TCU. On SportsBook the action is listed as 96% LSU and 4% TCU.
Lines don't move based on public action. They move based on sharp action.
This means the public is pounding LSU(not a surprise) but the sharp/smart/high roller money is coming in on TCU to keep the line around 3.5-4.5.
If a bunch of sharps/wise guys come in and pound the LSU line it will move.
It could also be a trap line, with books themselves gambling on a TCU cover which would be a giant score for the books. A big risk, but high return.
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