Ouch, Market Taking a Beating - Page 2 - TigerDroppings.com

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Vols&Shaft83
Tennessee Fan
Member since Dec 2012
12368 posts

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


quote:

Perhaps more importantly, the guy who shorted real estate (subprime) in 2007's "greatest trade ever."





And every once in awhile people win the lottery






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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
51083 posts
 Online 

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


quote:

I think he might be about to walk into the same trap with REITs, but we already discussed real estate a good bit in that thread from last Friday.
OTOH, in a straight bet along those lines, a VIX position might make sense.






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Doc Fenton
Yale Fan
Member since Feb 2007
50772 posts

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


Yep.

TBT might be an interesting play as well. Almost this whole board (me included) was premature about jumping on the TBT bandwagon for five freaking years... but in the last 3 months it looks like it's finally started to take off.






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Cmlsu5618
McNeese State Fan
Destin, FL
Member since Sep 2010
2263 posts

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


quote:

TBT


Closest thing to arbitrage that I can see.






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Doc Fenton
Yale Fan
Member since Feb 2007
50772 posts

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


Yeah, but you never want to go too far out on a limb in tying your own personal fate to guessing what the Fed is going to do, so maybe VIX would be a better idea. There will likely be a lot of back and forth in the next few years.





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Blakely Bimbo
Alabama Fan
Member since Dec 2010
1071 posts

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


haven't ya'll heard? Europe is bottoming.

Money going back into European stocks and debt.

Don't worry, when everyone figures out that Europe ain't fixed, money will come roaring back to US stocks.






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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
51083 posts
 Online 

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


quote:

Closest thing to arbitrage that I can see.

TBT is a one-way bet. Might be a good bet.
But in terms of arbitrage, L/S positions, L/S funds and/or Structured Products seem better options to me.






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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
51083 posts
 Online 

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


quote:

Don't worry, when everyone figures out that Europe ain't fixed, money will come roaring back to US stocks.
Who knows?
We're diversifying towards Europe FWIW.






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Powerman
LSU Fan
Corpus Christi, TX
Member since Jan 2004
120417 posts

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


quote:

Just FYI, That $2K is not "left over money", I invest before I pay any bills, buy any food, or buy any toys. It's off the top, it's paying yourself first. NOBODY gets paid before I pay myself, Not the utility company, not the bank, not THE frickING IRS. Now, I still pay those bills, but my priority is to myself and everyone else can wait in line.

That's a cute psychological game that you're playing with yourself

But let's be honest, you wouldn't be investing the money if you couldn't make the payments on your bills.






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Vols&Shaft83
Tennessee Fan
Member since Dec 2012
12368 posts

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


quote:

That's a cute psychological game that you're playing with yourself

But let's be honest, you wouldn't be investing the money if you couldn't make the payments on your bills.



Obviously. And it is psychological. And it works. I'm not on a salary, my income fluctuates month to month, so I have to be disciplined. Back when I used to pay bills first, and then invest/save what was left over, I'd end up saving or investing very little. When I made my financial future a priority, I increased my investing 10 fold, and I have always had plenty left over to pay my bills and have fun with.








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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
51083 posts
 Online 

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


quote:

Obviously. And it is psychological. And it works. I'm not on a salary, my income fluctuates month to month, so I have to be disciplined. Back when I used to pay bills first, and then invest/save what was left over
It will pay off . . . In Spades, Vol!

There are times I look back now, and wonder "How the H...., did this happen."

Good stuff.







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Ace Midnight
LSU Fan
Ball, LA - Home, Sweet Home
Member since Dec 2006
29224 posts
 Online 

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


quote:

It will pay off . . . In Spades, Vol!


I've had success doing that - I set my retirement contributions and vowed to "increase it until it hurts". I went from $0 to $40k in less than 40 months by "paying myself first" - and I did debt reduction and other investments, too (although a lot of that was with "found money" - extra military training events, life insurance proceeds, etc.)

How did that happen?

Another thing I highly recommend is the automatic mortgage payment, tied to your paycheck. That is the greatest psychological boon I've ever discovered - although it technically hits the bank account, I never see it reflected in the available balance. So, in essence, I pay myself first (never goes into the bank), and the mortgage second - everything else is literally child's play to pay.






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Blakely Bimbo
Alabama Fan
Member since Dec 2010
1071 posts

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


quote:

Who knows?
We're diversifying towards Europe FWIW.


AND you will be out before it turns again. Nothing happens before the German elections end of Sept.

After that, got to wait and see.

VIX isn't forecasting a big US downturn yet.






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nelatf
Louisiana Tech Fan
NELA
Member since Jan 2011
1043 posts

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


I like CVX less than 120....I have taken a beating the last few days. In fact, I have endured an ~9% slide in the last 30 days.

Ugh....






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Ace Midnight
LSU Fan
Ball, LA - Home, Sweet Home
Member since Dec 2006
29224 posts
 Online 

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


quote:

I like CVX less than 120....I have taken a beating the last few days. In fact, I have endured an ~9% slide in the last 30 days.


It may be time to sell some puts...






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nelatf
Louisiana Tech Fan
NELA
Member since Jan 2011
1043 posts

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


quote:

It may be time to sell some puts...


Or take my toys and go home!!! Still up for the year - get out and wait for the next panic....I dunno






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tirebiter
LSU Fan
ATL
Member since Oct 2006
5142 posts

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


quote:

Well people like Robert Shilling


I call him by his given name, Robert Shiller....






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Doc Fenton
Yale Fan
Member since Feb 2007
50772 posts

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


I just get confused because he played the character Larry Sanders on The Larry Sanders Show.





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ulsaint
Member since Oct 2007
300 posts

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


PM has been getting beat up lately, which I guess is good since my DRIP will just buy more.

But I just ran across this article regarding a pretty nice insider buy.
LINK






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EA6B
Navy Fan
TX
Member since Dec 2012
1319 posts

re: Ouch, Market Taking a Beating


quote:

Obviously. And it is psychological. And it works. I'm not on a salary, my income fluctuates month to month, so I have to be disciplined. Back when I used to pay bills first, and then invest/save what was left over, I'd end up saving or investing very little. When I made my financial future a priority, I increased my investing 10 fold, and I have always had plenty left over to pay my bills and have fun with.


Being successful in personal finance is probably 95% psychology. Knowledge of finance alone is pretty useless without the personal discipline to execute a long term plan, and any type of mental gymnastics that keep a person on track is usually a good thing.






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