SI Offseason Grade: Pelicans...B- - Page 3 - TigerDroppings.com

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SlowFlowPro
Stanford Fan
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
294151 posts

re: SI Offseason Grade: Pelicans...B-


quote:

If you have a superstar you pay them, otherwise you stockpile guys on rookie contracts and mid-level exception type contracts (around 6m a year). Otherwise you have a bunch of medicore talent and will have a medicore team.

until what? you acquire mediocre young players on cheap contracts, maybe slide into the lower end of the playoffs, and then face a decision when those young guys need to be extended about whether you'll start all over again and tank or sign them to bigger contracts?

the NBA is about acquiring talent for value. you CAN most certainly do this through the draft. but if the opportunity arises to trade for a player who is good and get him on the cheap, you do it. if you can sign a player to a valuable deal, you do it (which costs even less). you have to take these risks unless you're a destination spot for FAs

the spurs hit on 2 amazing euros and got great value years and years ago. they lucked into the #1 pick with a top-15 player all time. these are rare, outlier events, as best seen by the spurs being the only team that's ever achieved success in the modern NBA by using this method

OKC had another rare/outlier run with the draft. i'll even give you chicago. that's 3 teams, or 10% of the league

you look at successful teams in a similar market position to Nola, and they have to take risks. memphis took a HUGE one when they acquired randolph. they gave a big arse deal to conley before he had emerged. those are riskier moves than what nola has done

indiana has done pretty well in the draft, but they also signed west, hill, etc. also, they have had a "dead weight" max contract for 2 years with granger's contract. that was a mistake in hindsight. they're also not nearly as good as that playoff series against miami, b/c hibbert played out of his mind.

you have to look at the pieces acquired and assess if it's a good value

is holiday worth $11M/year? yes, easily. that's a good deal for him without question. was he worth trading the #6 pick in a weak draft and likely a 8-12 pick in a good draft? almost assuredly

is evans worth $11M/year? yes.

the biggest albatross potentially is gordon's deal, in hindsight






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VOR
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
New Orleans
Member since Apr 2009
41022 posts

re: SI Offseason Grade: Pelicans...B-


quote:

Debating Holiday's game and its value is fair. But they traded two mid to late lottery picks for a 23 yo who has proven himself to be a good player. He hasn't entered his prime yet!! If they had sent picks for an Iguodala S/T I would agree with your position. The team is young, locked up, and flexible on the court and on the cap sheet. It might not work, but it's not a franchise killer.



^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
that right there



quote:

1. The Pelicans have not killed their cap.

Gordon, Holiday, Evans, Anderson account for ~ $42MIL this season. Parker, Duncan, Splitter, Ginobili accout for ~ $40MIL. Each team has a promising young player on a rookie contract and then various cheap role players. The Spurs have $52MIL on the books for next year, the Pelicans have $53MIL.


^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
and especially that






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BobBarker
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Bompton, Cali
Member since Nov 2012
4950 posts

re: SI Offseason Grade: Pelicans...B-


quote:

It was summer league. Some guys look good and some look bad. But he got better as it went on and was one of the top 3 players by the end. He also has a reputation as a great defender, so not sure where you are getting that. Evans is a better player, no doubt, but he cost 3x more and will be playing off the bench. That doesn't make sense to everybody, like I guess it does to you.


Obviously couldn't have improved too much if you're shooting 19% from three. The three was supposed to be a major part of his offense too.
One of the biggest gripes about Ben Mac coming out was his lack of effort on the defensive end. What I'm saying is, we know what we are going to get from Tyreke, but for all we know Mclemore could become a massive flop. Give me the proven player at the higher price tag over the unproven player at less.

quote:

Some of those teams have been great at times as well. The Blazers had a monster team awhile back that they stacked through the draft and they are pretty good now. Chicago is a beast and almost all of their players are home grown.


The Blazers will be drafting at the top again because they will be forced to trade Aldridge. And when they were at their best they were still just a 5 seed. The Bulls won't win a championship as long as LeBron is still playing in the East.

quote:

Some of those teams have been great at times as well. The Blazers had a monster team awhile back that they stacked through the draft and they are pretty good now. Chicago is a beast and almost all of their players are home grown. You have to be good everywhere (trades and FA), but the draft is the core. Or at least it should be.


Actually, looking at the last 6 NBA champions, all of those teams were comprised of nothing but free agent pickups and players they had traded for outside of their core star.

Basically what I'm trying to argue, is that the Pelicans have a star or at least a future star and are trying to maximize their potential now. Even if we wouldn't have made the trade for Holliday, we still would have finished around 10th in the lottery unless we completely tanked. So what would you rather have, an All Star caliber point guard or a 200 pound center and the 11th over all pick? And don't forget that we still have top 3 protection on the draft pick, so if a few key players get hurt, we can tank our way back into the draft.

quote:

So you have to do it in one off season? They couldn't add players over the next couple of seasons and gradually got better? Give Davis time to mature and develop a game, instead of putting it all on the line his 2nd year.. that's just foolish to me.


When moves that make your' team better in the short and long term are available, you make them. You can't depend on ping pong balls to win you a championship. It doesn't work like that anymore. There are too many variables involved when trying to build through the lottery.

quote:

How many tiers do you think there are? I'm thinking like 4 or 5, so 2nd is pretty good. I don't think he is in Paul's range, he is a step below and that is still good. He's a step above Vasquez, but I don't think he's 5x better than him (which is how much more he makes).


My bad. Sort of sounded like you were demeaning Jrue's ability. And I'll tell you one way Holliday will always better than Greives. Greives was a fricking turnstile on defense. He couldn't cover any PG with speed. We replaced him with one the better defensive point guards in the league.

I look at it this way. We have a star (Davis), we have other potential stars (Gordon, Holliday), we have an excellent bench (Evans, Anderson), solid role players (Smith, Aminu, Rivers), young players with potential to develop (Miller, Withey) and an experienced end of the bench. We don't have to win now, we can still let Davis and co. continue to develop at their own pace, but it's obvious that the coaches and management fell that Davis is ready to lead a team now.






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brmark70816
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, La
Member since Feb 2011
1902 posts

re: SI Offseason Grade: Pelicans...B-


quote:

Gordon, Holiday, Evans, Anderson account for ~ $42MIL this season. Parker, Duncan, Splitter, Ginobili accout for ~ $40MIL.


Your math is off. The NO crew is over 45 million and the SA crew is under 40 million. I'm have to bring up the talent difference of the greatest PF of all time, a top 3 PG and maybe the greatest 6th man ever, combined 20+ all-pro and all star appearances or the fact they have all never missed the playoffs and were just in the finals versus one combined all star game, 2 guys that have never played on a winning team much less made the playoffs and two guys that weren't even top 3 guys on playoff teams... It's a bad comparison.


quote:

The team is young, locked up, and flexible on the court and on the cap sheet. It might not work, but it's not a franchise killer.


I guess we are going to keep debating this. Everyone says the team is flexible. Who can they trade? Davis is untouchable. Holiday is or should be solid. So why would they flip him. Anderson's value is up and down (supposedly they couldn't even swing Asik for him). Gordon and Evans contracts are scary for most teams. Rivers is really the most attractive asset and what could he really bring back right now? I just don't think these big contracts are as easy to move as everyone thinks they are..






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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5348 posts

re: SI Offseason Grade: Pelicans...B-


quote:

Your math is off.


LINK

I get $43.5 MIL for the 4 Pelicans, $40.3 for the 4 Spurs this season. Not that far off.

quote:

I'm have to bring up the talent difference of the greatest PF of all time, a top 3 PG and maybe the greatest 6th man ever, combined 20+ all-pro and all star appearances or the fact they have all never missed the playoffs and were just in the finals versus one combined all star game, 2 guys that have never played on a winning team much less made the playoffs and two guys that weren't even top 3 guys on playoff teams... It's a bad comparison.


You said the Pelicans had killed their cap with these signings. Have the Spurs killed their cap by signing old and declining Manu and better than average 28 yo Splitter? Manu/Tiago will get $17.5MIL combined this season, Holiday/Evans will get $21MIL combined. Is that reckless?

Haven't you also said that you think the Mavs will be better than the Pelicans? They signed Monta Ellis (27) for 3/$25 and Jose Calderon (31) for 4/$28. Ignoring max salaried Dirk and Gordon, this season the Mavs are paying $24MIL for Marion, Ellis, and Calderon to be their 2-4 best players. The Pelicans are paying $28MIL for Holiday, Evans, Anderson to be their 2-5 best players. Which would you rather?

The Pelicans are still in line to receive luxury tax compensation and (to my knowledge) have all of their exceptions available. We just got to watch firsthand how malleable the cap is during the Oden Affair. You're wrestling with shadows here.

quote:

Rivers is really the most attractive asset and what could he really bring back right now?



This is where you lose me.

You say you want youth and that the team should give Davis time to develop. The best 5 players on the team are under 25 and locked up for the next 2 years, guaranteed at market rates (other than Gordon). Anderson has come the closest to reaching his ceiling, but he can still get better and the other 4 can get much better.

But then you say the team is a failure because they can't flip anyone RIGHT NOW. Why do they have to move guys immediately? What happened to waiting to see how things develop? We can wait if a guy is 19, but not if a guy is 23? The big contracts on this team (save an injury prone Gordon) are easily moveable given the age and talents of Holiday/Evans/Anderson if you recognize that they will not be looking to trade anyone (except maybe Anderson) before the deadline this season and perhaps not until after next season. They didn't make these moves so they could blow up the roster 6 months later because the team is 8 games below .500.

The team has the best of both worlds at the moment. They have a young core under contract, so they can be patient and see how guys develop/play together. But they aren't so young that they will be awful and miserable to watch. After looking at the team for a season or two, they can adjust to whatever flaws they see. The contracts will be moveable when the team wants to move them.






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brmark70816
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, La
Member since Feb 2011
1902 posts

re: SI Offseason Grade: Pelicans...B-


quote:

I get $43.5 MIL for the 4 Pelicans, $40.3 for the 4 Spurs this season. Not that far off.


I used Hoopshype.. LINK .. the salary for Holiday is really different on each, so I'm not sure which is right (?)..

quote:

You said the Pelicans had killed their cap with these signings.


I said the team is capped out. They have 7 guys signed for the next two years that put the team over the cap. I'm trying to point out, that minus moving one of those contracts, this is the team we are stuck with for at least the next two seasons.

quote:

Holiday/Evans will get $21MIL combined. Is that reckless?


No, its not reckless, but I think it is excessive and a miss-allocation of resources. I thought that PG was fine with the Vasquez/Rivers combination for at least another season. I thought the team had bigger concerns. I don't get the Evans signing at all. Unless the team is convinced that he can play significant minutes at SF, it is a waste to me. Its the same thing that happened last offseason with Anderson. You make a big splash to sign someone at a position you are already set at.

quote:

Haven't you also said that you think the Mavs will be better than the Pelicans?


Sort of. One guy said the Mavs would be way worse than the Pelicans and I got into it with him. I think both teams are about .500 teams now and neither one is that much better.

quote:

They signed Monta Ellis (27) for 3/$25 and Jose Calderon (31) for 4/$28. Ignoring max salaried Dirk and Gordon, this season the Mavs are paying $24MIL for Marion, Ellis, and Calderon to be their 2-4 best players. The Pelicans are paying $28MIL for Holiday, Evans, Anderson to be their 2-5 best players. Which would you rather?


I would prefer the Mavs situation. They had greater needs at both spots they made signings and got good bargains for their money. Dallas will have something like 30m this summer in cap space as well and will reload or do something different.

quote:

You say you want youth and that the team should give Davis time to develop. The best 5 players on the team are under 25 and locked up for the next 2 years, guaranteed at market rates (other than Gordon). Anderson has come the closest to reaching his ceiling, but he can still get better and the other 4 can get much better.


The average NBA career is under 4 years. Throwing Davis out, the other guys have all been in the league longer than that. Guys mature differently, but to project that they all get better at this stage in their career is just being optimistic. It might happen, but they might get worse as well. It should have happened already. If Evans was going to be a star, it would have happened.

quote:

But then you say the team is a failure because they can't flip anyone RIGHT NOW. Why do they have to move guys immediately? What happened to waiting to see how things develop? We can wait if a guy is 19, but not if a guy is 23? The big contracts on this team (save an injury prone Gordon) are easily moveable given the age and talents of Holiday/Evans/Anderson if you recognize that they will not be looking to trade anyone (except maybe Anderson) before the deadline this season and perhaps not until after next season. They didn't make these moves so they could blow up the roster 6 months later because the team is 8 games below .500.


What about one summer later. Next summer. Say this doesn't work, cause we have absolutely no post defense or post scoring and we get killed down low. The team barely misses the playoffs and Demp's butt is on the line to make a move. Put yourself in his shoes, how do you fix it? Who can you trade and get the players you need that fit?

I'm not trying to be a kill joy, I just don't like what they did. I'm old school when it comes to basketball. I like size down low and disciplined players that run an efficient system. I wanted a good Center (draft or FA) to keep Davis at PF and they actually got worse there. I wanted Gordon gone and they doubled down there and ignored SF. I actually liked the Holiday pick-up, but I wanted to keep Vasquez as well(he was a great value, even off the bench). This is the 4th season in a row, the player I liked most got shipped off (Thornton, West, Jack and Vasquez). I'd like to see team loyalty get rewarded sometime..






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TigerinATL
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2005
32809 posts
 Online 

re: SI Offseason Grade: Pelicans...B-


quote:

I'm trying to point out, that minus moving one of those contracts, this is the team we are stuck with for at least the next two seasons.


Stuck is when you have big contracts tied up in guys like Peja and Okafor, not guys like Holiday and Evans. The Pelicans may not have any stuck money if a Happy Eric Gordon is a Healthy Eric Gordon.

quote:

Dallas will have something like 30m this summer in cap space as well and will reload or do something different.


No they won't. The cap hold on Dirk will be at least $23 million. I'm sure he'd take a pay cut for a difference maker, but will he take a pay cut for another Monta Ellis type? I doubt it, and Melo and Bron aren't going to Big D. Dallas will have around $10 million to work with, not $30 million.

quote:

I don't get the Evans signing at all. Unless the team is convinced that he can play significant minutes at SF, it is a waste to me. Its the same thing that happened last offseason with Anderson. You make a big splash to sign someone at a position you are already set at.


Spreading out starter quality players = maximizing utilization of starter quality players. Do you want Aminu taking 7 shots a game and Evans taking 7 shots a game, or Evans taking 10 shots a game and Aminu taking 4 shots a game?







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corndeaux
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Sep 2009
5348 posts

re: SI Offseason Grade: Pelicans...B-


quote:

this is the team we are stuck with for at least the next two seasons.


I think the team is happy to see what happens over the next two seasons. You don't put a roster like this together and expect to turn it over quickly.

quote:

I thought that PG was fine with the Vasquez/Rivers combination for at least another season. I thought the team had bigger concerns. I don't get the Evans signing at all. Unless the team is convinced that he can play significant minutes at SF, it is a waste to me. Its the same thing that happened last offseason with Anderson. You make a big splash to sign someone at a position you are already set at.


I disagree on the PG and Vasquez was due a raise after this season. But I do think pgs are easier to find. I understand the other complaints. I disagree to an extent and I think there are ways to make it work, but I see what you're saying. I completely understand if you don't have faith that the coaching will figure out how to make it work.

quote:

The average NBA career is under 4 years. Throwing Davis out, the other guys have all been in the league longer than that. Guys mature differently, but to project that they all get better at this stage in their career is just being optimistic. It might happen, but they might get worse as well. It should have happened already. If Evans was going to be a star, it would have happened


All 4 of those guys have proven to be good to very good NBA players. Evans put up 20/5/5 as a rookie. That's happened like 3 other times in league history* (Jordan and Bron did it too, so Evans has talent). Anderson has done things that only guys like Peja and Ray Allen have done. For the most part, these guys have played on bad teams in bad organizations and have been asked to do more than they are capable. No one is expecting any of them to become superstars, but there is still growth left in their games. Obviously no guarantee it happens, but there's no guarantee that Noel or McLemore are even in the league in 4 years. These guys (depending on Gordon's knees) will be in the league for another 10 years.

quote:

What about one summer later. Next summer. Say this doesn't work, cause we have absolutely no post defense or post scoring and we get killed down low. The team barely misses the playoffs


If this team barely misses the playoffs, I can't imagine Demps will be on the hot seat. That means probably somewhere around 45 wins and an exciting finish to the season for a young, up and coming team. Ownership okayed these moves. They have expectations, but they also knew what they are getting into when they decided to bring these guys in. The team is still on Davis's timetable. It won't go anywhere unless he's very good. They could have their draft picks and could have signed a true center and a true SF. It would have looked nicer, but none of it matters if Davis isn't a star.

But say post defense kills them, that means Davis isn't the guy we thought he was. You can win without a traditional on the block center. Joakim Noah is listed at 232 and he has anchored the best defense in basketball the last 3 years. Post up possessions on offense are only mediocre in terms of efficiency. It's more of a Euro drive/kick and inside-out league and this roster is set up for that type of offense.

quote:

I'm not trying to be a kill joy, I just don't like what they did. I'm old school when it comes to basketball. I like size down low and disciplined players that run an efficient system. I wanted a good Center (draft or FA) to keep Davis at PF and they actually got worse there


I get it. It's a wild team. It might not work at all, but let's see how it plays out before we decide that it won't work. I like the bet on Davis being ready to be the centerpiece of the team sooner rather than later.

Edit:

Third guy was Oscar.

LINK



This post was edited on 8/14 at 6:25 pm


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THRILLHO
New Orleans Saints Fan
New Orleans, LA
Member since Apr 2006
33828 posts
 Online 

re: SI Offseason Grade: Pelicans...B-


quote:

. I'm trying to point out, that minus moving one of those contracts, this is the team we are stuck with for at least the next two seasons.


They can add a solid player with the MLE next year. If they're willing to let Gordon walk in two or three years, they can probably use the MLE again in 15/16. We're loaded at guard and PF right now and Aminu and Smiht are capable stop gaps. They can use this season to see how Evans can handle the 3/Davis the 5 and target a player to fill their need. And none of those contracts are unmovable. Gordon's value couldn't be any lower than it is right now and they were supposedly getting offers for him in the offseason.






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