How much of the new housing "boom" is real vs. speculation?

In my area/parish, I had talked to someone in the know as to how many new building permits were giving out from the first of this year. Not even a month ago, new permits are down close to 17% for the year.

There will be a slowdown in home prices after this re-finacing/structuring settles. IMO it's not hard to see. I think the employment hotspots have a nice buffer from this.

The market has been fully propped up from it's broken legs in 2008.

In Houston, the 0 day inventory is really low. Job growth seems to be supporting the levels as well. Houston even passed an ordinance allowing for higher density homes to be build outside of 610 but inside B8.

It's 37% boom and 63% speculation. Not sure how much that helps you.

I don't know what you mean by "real" vs. "speculation". It's all price movements.

Major tract builders have consolidated the market since the bust and they are building in all the markets you would expect. Major metros in the southeast and thru the sunbelt. Only area of concern would be Phoenix/Vegas because of the inflow of foreign speculation. But they are forecast to have good population growth, so maybe it can be sustained.

See on one hand I want to say a bust is coming but I can't because there are so many cash buyers and tons who've locked in ridiculously low rates that I just feel they can sit on the property and don't have to sell like those with bad adjustable rate loans in 2008. These guys are all cash or fixed rate loans.

I have been shopping around south florida for a place to buy and Miami prices are going bonkers but the rentals are so far below market it's comical. Literally condos that are $1.5M are renting for $4500/month and I mean those condos have $3500/month in maintenance fees + taxes. The condos being bought are all by argentinian,venezuelan,brazilian and european buyers but there are no renters since the locals cannot afford the subsequent rents along the beach.

I just can't see these people taking a loss on cash which is what the realtor I've been working with told me is the difference this time. EVERYONE is paying cash and my realtor is a friend of mine for over 20 years so it's not someone spewing BS to me, but that cash isn't american cash.

I would love for the miami bubble to burst bc I know some people in the building Im looking at who paid $750K in 2010 for units that are $1.7M today its ridiculous. Damn foreigners driving prices into the stratosphere.

I will say if you're seeking to work from home and rent a ridiculous unit for cheap, miami is perfect. Dallas on the other hand, a $400,000 home will fetch $4k so in terms of rental affordability texas is much more expensive than miami where the real estate is quadruple the total price.

Just read this piece that makes a ton of sense in terms of what I referenced in Miami.

LINK

I'm 34 and don't have student loans and have a pretty high paying job and I think people like me are few and far between, the younger generation has a higher unemployment rate and more student debt than ever. I heard on fox news today georgetown is $66,000/year for tuition and board....YIKES.....I really don't know how this ends but I think the fall will be smoother with all the cash and cheap fixed rate loans involved.

I go back and forth between dallas and miami for work and both places real estate is going bonkers, I just don't know what to think anymore.

Ya totally agree what I'm saying is Miami may as well be a foreign country. Americans cannot afford Miami beach or south beach which starts at $1000/sq ft and goes to $5000/sq ft but all the wealthy south Americans,Europeans,and Mexicans are buying everything yet every realtor wants to tell you how hot it is.....the realty is very few working in the US can afford them and the city has no economy so rentals that should be $15000/month on $2m condos are a laughable $4500 and barely net a return if they're even rented. Inflation in Argentina,dictators in Venezuela and a horrible situation in Europe are turning nice American properties into a playground for foreign elite and it's really hurting the average American who can't keep up

Just saw a guy on Fox business discussing New York City and the takasimaya? building or whatever that just leased for the highest price EVER in America at $3000/sf a year on 5th avenue in new york. He discussed the inflow of sovereign money from Japan, brazil,argentina,venezuela......looks like they face the same issues as Miami!