Market Predictions for the Day? 6/13

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Market Predictions for the Day?

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It will fluctuate

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I really see 16,000+ by years end

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What makes you think that? I could see a rough summer stretch then a flat fall.

Nice assessment

Kind of off topic but does anyone pay for the Wall Street Journal? I had it in college with a student rate and have been thinking about resubscribing.

Is it worth the $23?

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so in reality investors have nowhere to go right now BUT the market.

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This is what I was thinking..

Nice post.

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ThaBigFella

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To an extent, I feel you are correct. With that said:


Nowhere to go in bonds?...



What about floating income bond funds that do quite nicely during rising interest rates. What about buying individual bonds if you commit to holding to maturity?


To touch on dividend paying stocks...



I like to look at SDY (S&P500 dividend index)to gauge how the average dividend stock is valued versus the market. Right now it is trading at a P/E of 17 compared to the S&P P/E of 18.6. Mind you the S&P P/E contains much more growth oriented stocks and the two P/Es are quite close to each other.

In all honesty, I'm just diversifying equities across the board, adding floating income for limited bond exposure, and hoping for the best.

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TheDiesel

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worth the $23?

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If this is per month, probably not unless you abuse the website.

Per year, absolutely.

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Well I agree with everything you said except for the above statement. Investors could go to a few other places: Real Estate, Precious metals, peer to peer lending, bitcoins.

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yes and no, im talking the average retail investor is probably a sub $50k account and to get into real estate you need a little bit of cash for down payments and knowledge. I perceive the average investor in the market as someone with a 401k who has no idea what the hell is really going on and in constant fear of another crash. I mean really go survey a random sample of 20 people on the street who own stock and see if they know when the next fed meeting is and the consequences that could come from the end of fed bond buying....I'll bet it's under 10% of those surveyed. So to say the average investor needs the market to make "easy" investments for them via mutual funds is an understatement.

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t is what I was thinking, but if you look at the last month there is a clear bias to the downside for bonds, equities and gold. So, is the money going to cash or spending?

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If you go to cash you're in a losers game with inflation eroding your purchasing power while your bank accounts pay pretty much nothing in terms of interest. I don't know how old you are but I got my first CD as a gift from my dad as a 15 year old, it was at over 6%, and Im pretty sure in the late 1980's it was over 9%!!!!! We are literally at fractions of that today and "savers" aren't really rewarded for anything so you are literally being forced into some type of investment to make any return which sucks for......you guessed it THE SAVERS!!!!

My parents and their friends are all immigrants who came to the US broke 40+ years ago and all started small businesses(restaurants,convenience stores,etc) saved millions their entire careers with the idea of living off interest. These guys are very intelligent but in the end uneducated immigrants who don't really trust the market and basically think the market is:enron,worldcomm,bernie madoff......old school guys like that sit on cash and have tons and tons and were always taught save save save and the bank will reward you with 5-8% annual interest.....well that was 1965 and they were 20, today those guys have no choice but to be in real estate or to simplify things....STOCKS

I'm by no means a financial advisor, but I have managed my own money very well for the past nearly 20 years and I've within the past year helped my parents and 3 family friends ease into the market with a variety of dividend stocks and AAA muni's bc they CAME TO ME seeking some sort of yield and did not trust investment advisors.

So I definitely think a reality the media isn't discussing is we have a gigantic class of baby boomers who are millionaires who have NEVER been in the market, the 4 families i mentioned are all $3M+ cash holders and those guys today have bought into the market even at all time highs and into dividend stocks bc they're not so concerned with day to day capital appreciation as they are with building a sustaining income stream which is what dividend stocks allow for.

So while many see a bubble in dividend stocks, in my opinion a welcome a burst bc these companies for the most part with a few exceptions have boosted their dividend in good times and in bad times and thus allow you to buy a bigger stake in bad times. I've explained to these guys that a crash of some sort is a tremendous buying opportunity and that their "income stream" will rise, and showed them past crashes and that dividends were still paid, and they finally understood bc this was all stuff they were never taught as kids.They were fascinated by the concept of annual dividend increases and thus annual income increase beating inflation from things like coca cola. Like I said the average person does not really understand these things.

So I think with 10,000 new retirees/day and with many more than you think never being in the market literally jumping in recently to chase a yield UNTIL a safer way to get that yield returns.....that demographic will have to be in the market

now thats my opinion, you don't have to agree with me, but like I said I have helped 4 wealthy small business owners who are very close family friends who've spent 40+ years as cash accumulators. Those guys with my help have put over $17M in the market in the past 2 years.....so if those 4 are any indicator of what wealthy old retirees seek which is an income stream that's easy to manage and more headache free....then dividend stocks with solid histories seem to be the way

Like I said in the first post, a bust will come when rates rise and 10 year treasuries are 6%+ again.....but I have no idea how we can raise rates to that level until that $17 TRILLION dollar and growing obligation is gone....can someone explain to me how we can raise rates to those levels while we still owe so much? Maybe Im ignorant on that point

Good question Janky I don't know but let's see bernanke raises rates big time and you can now collect 8 pennies/month per $10,000 in your bank account would you liquidate all stocks and head for a savings account? I think the media is overplaying this bernanke raising rates fear....rates aren't going to anything worth noting anytime soon