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Started By
Message
re: UNC favorite to win CWS followed by OSU...LSU 3rd
Posted on 6/13/13 at 10:15 am to GumboPot
Posted on 6/13/13 at 10:15 am to GumboPot
quote:
Odds and spreads are based on money flow not the best or worst team.
The odds are set by Vegas based on the reality of who they think will win and lose. The line then moves based on money flow.
Vegas cannot afford to set a line incorrectly solely based on who they think the general betting public will bet on. Professional sport gamblers would seize the opportunity to hurt, if not break, many Vegas Sports Books.
2
Posted on 6/13/13 at 10:31 am to KC Tiger
quote:
The odds are set by Vegas based on the reality of who they think will win and lose
Odds are not a prediction of what they think the outcome of the game will be.
quote:
Vegas cannot afford to set a line incorrectly solely based on who they think the general betting public will bet on.
That's why they release lines first to a few select bettors and then they refine the lines based on those bettors and then release them to the public.
Posted on 6/13/13 at 10:32 am to Hurricane Mike
I don't see LSU losing any games the rest of the way..just too good, too fast, too strong, too deep, too confident.. too well coached
LSU = 7 time National Champion
Blee dat!
LSU = 7 time National Champion
Blee dat!
Posted on 6/13/13 at 10:35 am to ApexTiger
No one putting $ on Indiana huh?
I don't know enough about baseball to know if beating FSU at FSU this year is great, but they looked like a pretty complete team I thought
I don't know enough about baseball to know if beating FSU at FSU this year is great, but they looked like a pretty complete team I thought
Posted on 6/13/13 at 10:39 am to KC Tiger
No, they set the odds based on how they think people, including professional sport gamblers, will bet. You're mistakenly separating the "general public" and "professional sport gamblers". That's silly. Professional gamblers don't know who's going to win, and it's probably even easier for Vegas to predict how the professional gamblers will bet than it is for them to predict how the novice will bet.
If a book sets UNC as the favorite, it's because they think the people betting will consider UNC the favorite. For all you know, the people setting the book thinks Indiana is a shoe in to win it all, or maybe they thinks Oregon State will, but regardless of who they personally think will win, it would be stupid for them to set the lines based on that. They base it on what they think the common perception is.
If a book sets UNC as the favorite, it's because they think the people betting will consider UNC the favorite. For all you know, the people setting the book thinks Indiana is a shoe in to win it all, or maybe they thinks Oregon State will, but regardless of who they personally think will win, it would be stupid for them to set the lines based on that. They base it on what they think the common perception is.
Posted on 6/13/13 at 1:15 pm to MillerMan
LSU is the favorite currently on 5dimes.
Posted on 6/13/13 at 7:29 pm to MillerMan
What's a good web site to bet, that's not difficult to get a pay out
Posted on 6/14/13 at 1:33 am to LSULyle00690
*****So much focus on seeds, so many saying teams aren't that good because they are unseeded.
Under the current format (since 1999) there have been 14 National Championships.
7 times a top eight national seed has won the CWS.
7 times an un-seeded team has won the CWS.
5 of the 7 national seeds to win, won it in the first 5 seasons under this format (99-03). The next 5 seasons, no national seed won the CWS.
In the past 9 seasons, only 2 national seeds (2009, 2011) have won the CWS.
Number of times the #1 overall seed has won the CWS under the current format: 1 (1999).
Under the current format (since 1999) there have been 14 National Championships.
7 times a top eight national seed has won the CWS.
7 times an un-seeded team has won the CWS.
5 of the 7 national seeds to win, won it in the first 5 seasons under this format (99-03). The next 5 seasons, no national seed won the CWS.
In the past 9 seasons, only 2 national seeds (2009, 2011) have won the CWS.
Number of times the #1 overall seed has won the CWS under the current format: 1 (1999).
Posted on 6/14/13 at 2:21 am to GumboPot
quote:
Odds and spreads are based on money flow not the best or worst team.
some a-hole has to come into every point spread thread & say this. we get it, you're Mr fricking Vegas and the rest of us are rubes
Posted on 6/14/13 at 12:02 pm to Buckeye06
No one wants to diminish what Indiana has done...however, FSU is the king of choke when it comes to the college playoff system. They've been to the college World Series 21 times and been in the post season 51 times and have never won a national title. So, FSU being the second winningest program in history translates to nothing more than being the best at going home early. Indiana may be a team to worry about but they've proven nothing this point. Also, the ACC hasn't won a title in baseball since the 50's. They (Indiana) will be going up against teams that are 2 to 3 deep in the pitching rotation and-
"Defense wins championships". ....unless you know how to play GORILLA BALL.
"Defense wins championships". ....unless you know how to play GORILLA BALL.
This post was edited on 6/14/13 at 12:09 pm
Posted on 6/14/13 at 12:10 pm to Honkus
quote:
rubes
Retarded pubes?
Posted on 6/14/13 at 12:36 pm to PurpleAndGold86
quote:
That's why they release lines first to a few select bettors and then they refine the lines based on those bettors and then release them to the public.
Yeah that's not legal.
Posted on 6/15/13 at 9:32 am to MillerMan
Based on these odds:
33% NC
29% Oregon St.
27% LSU
9% UCLA
8% NC St.
7% Moo St.
6% Louisville
4% Indiana
That adds up to 122%. Vegas aint stupid. It's highly unlikely that any of these bets are profitable.
33% NC
29% Oregon St.
27% LSU
9% UCLA
8% NC St.
7% Moo St.
6% Louisville
4% Indiana
That adds up to 122%. Vegas aint stupid. It's highly unlikely that any of these bets are profitable.
Posted on 6/15/13 at 9:41 am to MillerMan
quote:
UNC favorite to win CWS
Not a good bet IMHO.
Top seed seldom, if ever, wins the tournament.
Posted on 6/15/13 at 9:56 am to JG77056
quote:
Yeah that's not legal.
It's a largely illegal industry. It's more regulated tighter now than formerly. But, formerly with the Stardust, Mirage, Binion's, Caesars,etc..until about fifteen years ago..it was the standard operating procedure.
They had lotteries for the runners, many to most of which were rigged, and/or had SB managers that made special allowances to runners for select bettors and syndicates, to shape their Bob Martin/Sonny Reizner/Roxy/LVSC/etc..opening numbers.
It is no longer required to set a solid number, despite today's tighter gaming scrutiny. CRIS, Greek, Pinny, Grande,etc..are the leaders and openers, Vegas largely follows their leads, and will move on air to match their numbers. Cantor Group coming on strong in LV in recent years.
Billy Walters, Billy Baxter, Spiros, Chinaman, Russians, etc..have access to the entire betting world.
This post was edited on 6/15/13 at 9:59 am
Posted on 6/16/13 at 1:46 am to MillerMan
Hope UNC loses today
Posted on 6/16/13 at 8:56 am to PurpleAndGold86
Lsu Tigers WIN!!! Blee dat. 
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