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re: the "correction" seems to have begun.....how low do we go? prediction thread
Posted on 6/6/13 at 11:43 pm to acgeaux129
Posted on 6/6/13 at 11:43 pm to acgeaux129
LVS are you kidding me? Ya the 2009 recession didn't hit las vegas at all. The casinos were empty and the stock fell to under $1, I said it was my biggest mistake ever selling it but I would never make it a core position, the beta will make you lose your mind
I don't recommend a stock with a beta over 3 to any amateur investor unless they wanna wake up with a heart attack in the event of any correction. The average investor has no idea what beta means.
Also LVS is nice, but sands china is the arm of that company you wanna buy for growth in macau.
LVS is nice but if someone's really out of money, out of work they might be degen gamblers but they just cannot come up with money, anyone can come up with a few bucks for smokes, if not they'll steal it from somewhere its totally different, you can't say LVS is not affected by economic climate. LVS is one casino company, there's wynn there's genting, there's a ton
PM/MO own ALL THE BEST BRANDS....
Reynolds American,lorillard own all the dog brands like kool,camel, and newport those literally make up under 20% of my sales, Altria owns all the big time brands
I don't recommend a stock with a beta over 3 to any amateur investor unless they wanna wake up with a heart attack in the event of any correction. The average investor has no idea what beta means.
Also LVS is nice, but sands china is the arm of that company you wanna buy for growth in macau.
LVS is nice but if someone's really out of money, out of work they might be degen gamblers but they just cannot come up with money, anyone can come up with a few bucks for smokes, if not they'll steal it from somewhere its totally different, you can't say LVS is not affected by economic climate. LVS is one casino company, there's wynn there's genting, there's a ton
PM/MO own ALL THE BEST BRANDS....
Reynolds American,lorillard own all the dog brands like kool,camel, and newport those literally make up under 20% of my sales, Altria owns all the big time brands
This post was edited on 6/6/13 at 11:50 pm
1
Posted on 6/6/13 at 11:53 pm to ThaBigFella
Posted on 6/6/13 at 11:54 pm to acgeaux129
ok acgeaux put that gif up
Id go 100% of my portfolio on PM and not even care if there was a downturn, a 20% drop in the market with a .9 beta on PM means an 18% drop in PM and 20% drop in the market means a 70% drop on your LVS with a beta of 3.6.....go ahead load up 100% of your portfolio on that, go with what you're preaching if its such a smash hit.
LVS is trading at 30x earnings and has a great dividend history thats all of less than 2 years old as well, just like PM/mo whose been paying dividends for 100+ years and trades at 14x forward earnings.......
Id go 100% of my portfolio on PM and not even care if there was a downturn, a 20% drop in the market with a .9 beta on PM means an 18% drop in PM and 20% drop in the market means a 70% drop on your LVS with a beta of 3.6.....go ahead load up 100% of your portfolio on that, go with what you're preaching if its such a smash hit.
LVS is trading at 30x earnings and has a great dividend history thats all of less than 2 years old as well, just like PM/mo whose been paying dividends for 100+ years and trades at 14x forward earnings.......
This post was edited on 6/7/13 at 12:10 am
Posted on 6/6/13 at 11:56 pm to ThaBigFella
quote:
Id go 100% of my portfolio on PM
quote:
drop on your LVS with a beta of 3.6.....go ahead load up 100% of your portfolio on that
Non-systemic risk is for noobs!!
Posted on 6/7/13 at 9:59 am to ThaBigFella
quote:
kool,camel, and newport
you'd think these perform well with the lower class. seriously though, that's what they smoke.
MO is my favorite stock that i haven't purchased enough of.
would you put one over the other? PM/MO
This post was edited on 6/7/13 at 10:01 am
Posted on 6/7/13 at 10:07 am to donRANDOMnumbers
Pm by a mile the growth prospects are staggering overseas, Altria is great still but they spun off pm for a reason.... Marlboro is often expensive for poor people so they made Marlboro special blend,a cheaper $1 off option to compete with those you listed....it's more popular than those brands from my sales reports
This post was edited on 6/7/13 at 10:09 am
Posted on 6/7/13 at 10:16 am to ThaBigFella
interesting. thanks for the info.
i was recently between JNJ and PM for a large sum and went JNJ. might back some other stuff out and move to PM. MO has been great for me.
i was recently between JNJ and PM for a large sum and went JNJ. might back some other stuff out and move to PM. MO has been great for me.
Posted on 6/7/13 at 10:54 am to donRANDOMnumbers
I have a small position in JNJ, its a great company they're a great dividend growth stock. I just have my preferences and a long term holding in cigarettes so as someone whose seen the past results, Im happy with the future. Im sure JNJ will be incredible as well 
and for the record, im not against indexing it just doesn't fit my personal agenda which is early retirement and living off dividends that continually grow while maintaining my core position and not selling. So stocks such as PM which is 3.75% and growing or MO which is 4.92% and growing annually. SPY is great and I would hold some, but the yield on it is 1.94% and wouldnt allow for me to hit my target income by the date i seek thats all I meant by im against indexing. The only low dividend stock i hold is visa bc i believe in its growth otherwise im all high yield(over 3% sadly is high these days)
and for the record, im not against indexing it just doesn't fit my personal agenda which is early retirement and living off dividends that continually grow while maintaining my core position and not selling. So stocks such as PM which is 3.75% and growing or MO which is 4.92% and growing annually. SPY is great and I would hold some, but the yield on it is 1.94% and wouldnt allow for me to hit my target income by the date i seek thats all I meant by im against indexing. The only low dividend stock i hold is visa bc i believe in its growth otherwise im all high yield(over 3% sadly is high these days)
This post was edited on 6/7/13 at 10:59 am
Posted on 6/7/13 at 11:47 am to ThaBigFella
You liquidate all your holdings to buy up Altria yet? I'll even let you cheat a little... you don't have to sell your stake in your convenience store business. You wanted to put your money where your mouth is... it's time to put up or shut up...MAN up...
Posted on 6/7/13 at 11:49 am to acgeaux129
What are you talking about I have tons of altria from almost 20 years ago, I get plenty on my drip, just saying all my new money is going to phillip morris which is altria in every country but the united states. I don't get your point? I said multiple times both will do well, but I feel international is where the growth is, not domestically
You do realize that anyone who held altria before spinoffs got
MO - altria
PM - Phillip Morris
KRFT - Kraft
Mondelez - oreo maker and many other snacks
Altria is like a high yield bond nowadays, little to no growth and high dividend. PM sells the exact same product with a high dividend and high growth....do you even understand this concept?
You do realize that anyone who held altria before spinoffs got
MO - altria
PM - Phillip Morris
KRFT - Kraft
Mondelez - oreo maker and many other snacks
Altria is like a high yield bond nowadays, little to no growth and high dividend. PM sells the exact same product with a high dividend and high growth....do you even understand this concept?
This post was edited on 6/7/13 at 11:52 am
Posted on 6/7/13 at 11:54 am to ThaBigFella
OK tough guy if you want to play games we can play games. You can do Phillip Morris if you want.
Posted on 6/7/13 at 11:57 am to acgeaux129
I have both....
You sound pretty upset I said you were ridiculous for comparing LVS to PM/MO
LVS is addictive, gambling is but PM/MO have paid dividends from over 100 years, LVS has paid dividend for less than 2 years. PM has a beta of .9 and MO is even lower, your precious LVS has a beta of 3.6, so effectively it moves 3.6x in the direction of the market so its up a ton recently but in a bear market it could easily shed 80% hence why it plummeted to $1 in 2009 while PM/MO lose 20% in such a scenario and thus I wouldn't recommend it to an amateur investor.
Casinos rely on addicts but what do casinos do when those addicts don't have money? PM/MO both do well in good times and bad bc rich people and poor people can buy their products no matter how bad things get and actually as people struggle and life gets hard they smoke more. I don't know why you're so upset that I said I didn't like your darling. Am i not entitled to an opinion? MO sells the same products as PM to a 350M population in the US....PM sells those products to 6B people world wide why wouldnt I want that one more?
Goa head use the buyupside.com backtest calculator I posted, since the spinoff in 2008
PM is up 129%
MO is up 135%
LVS is up 31%
So I dont see why you say its on par as a blue chip?
You sound pretty upset I said you were ridiculous for comparing LVS to PM/MO
LVS is addictive, gambling is but PM/MO have paid dividends from over 100 years, LVS has paid dividend for less than 2 years. PM has a beta of .9 and MO is even lower, your precious LVS has a beta of 3.6, so effectively it moves 3.6x in the direction of the market so its up a ton recently but in a bear market it could easily shed 80% hence why it plummeted to $1 in 2009 while PM/MO lose 20% in such a scenario and thus I wouldn't recommend it to an amateur investor.
Casinos rely on addicts but what do casinos do when those addicts don't have money? PM/MO both do well in good times and bad bc rich people and poor people can buy their products no matter how bad things get and actually as people struggle and life gets hard they smoke more. I don't know why you're so upset that I said I didn't like your darling. Am i not entitled to an opinion? MO sells the same products as PM to a 350M population in the US....PM sells those products to 6B people world wide why wouldnt I want that one more?
Goa head use the buyupside.com backtest calculator I posted, since the spinoff in 2008
PM is up 129%
MO is up 135%
LVS is up 31%
So I dont see why you say its on par as a blue chip?
This post was edited on 6/7/13 at 12:05 pm
Posted on 6/7/13 at 12:03 pm to ThaBigFella
I don't give a damn about all that beta crap, whatever that is. I changed up my portfolio (excluding my son's college fund, but I wouldn't be against making it more interesting) this morning to 100% LVS. It's time you do the same with PM or GTFO.
This post was edited on 6/7/13 at 12:05 pm
Posted on 6/7/13 at 12:10 pm to acgeaux129
best of luck, hope the move works out. Like I said, LVS is nice, I just think the growth your looking for from Las Vegas Sands Corp is in Macau and thus you want to own their Sands China ADR instead but LVS is a fine company, I personally can't stomach such volatility from a core position with such a high beta but if you can
Posted on 6/7/13 at 12:23 pm to ThaBigFella
Annnnd with that, ladies and gentlemen, he exits with his tail between his legs. It happens when you talk the talk but you can't walk the walk. I will be fielding the remainder of the questions for the duration of this thread.
This post was edited on 6/7/13 at 12:24 pm
Posted on 6/7/13 at 1:01 pm to acgeaux129
quote:
acgeaux129
You seem like you are in the know. What are your thoughts on the past week, and the prospects of a correction?
Posted on 6/7/13 at 1:10 pm to You will Artichokes
Thanks, YWA. I wouldn't necessarily say "I'm in the know," but I try. 
As for the correction, I don't think we are entering one. Kind of think the OP jumped the gun just a little to say the least, since the SP500 has posted a slight gain over the week (fingers crossed till 3pm). That's not to say his thought process was wrong. However, it was. We still don't have anything tangible regarding interest rates just yet. I do think irrational sentiment in response to an interest rate hike could provide some attractive buying opportunities going forward.
Let me know if you have any other questions.
As for the correction, I don't think we are entering one. Kind of think the OP jumped the gun just a little to say the least, since the SP500 has posted a slight gain over the week (fingers crossed till 3pm). That's not to say his thought process was wrong. However, it was. We still don't have anything tangible regarding interest rates just yet. I do think irrational sentiment in response to an interest rate hike could provide some attractive buying opportunities going forward.
Let me know if you have any other questions.
Posted on 6/7/13 at 1:16 pm to acgeaux129
I saw mention of PM and MO earlier. Which do you prefer?
Posted on 6/7/13 at 1:22 pm to You will Artichokes
Both!
Really, I like both. Just depends on what you are looking for. International exposure with quality growth potential? Buy PM. Solid earnings with good dividends? Go with MO. anything else, let me know
Really, I like both. Just depends on what you are looking for. International exposure with quality growth potential? Buy PM. Solid earnings with good dividends? Go with MO.
anything else, let me know Posted on 6/7/13 at 1:32 pm to ThaBigFella
So only 1 question. Should I be looking at the yield more then the actual dividend amount?
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