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Anybody Buying BP These Days or Am I the only sucker?
Posted on 5/22/13 at 8:08 pm
Posted on 5/22/13 at 8:08 pm
I'm buying tons of BP recently, and I;m left wondering WTF why is this company, one of the supermajors, still trading at 6x earnings and yielding 5%.
There's not too many deals on the market these days, but I just don't see much downside in BP anymore, unless the obvious second spill happens, are any of you guys in this for the longhaul?
I think fair value is in the 60-70 range, are the settlements really going to hurt BP from here moving forward?
basically is this a too good to be true investment where the price is justified or is this an oportunity like 2009 to buy a superb company at a great price?
BP - $43
CVX-$126
XOM-$92
COP-$63
RDS.B - $70
With a 15% earnings yield + 5% dividend its basically going to earn at least 20% a year going forward at todays prices as long as earnings dont drop, that seems like a WOWZA
There's not too many deals on the market these days, but I just don't see much downside in BP anymore, unless the obvious second spill happens, are any of you guys in this for the longhaul?
I think fair value is in the 60-70 range, are the settlements really going to hurt BP from here moving forward?
basically is this a too good to be true investment where the price is justified or is this an oportunity like 2009 to buy a superb company at a great price?
BP - $43
CVX-$126
XOM-$92
COP-$63
RDS.B - $70
With a 15% earnings yield + 5% dividend its basically going to earn at least 20% a year going forward at todays prices as long as earnings dont drop, that seems like a WOWZA
This post was edited on 5/22/13 at 8:14 pm
4
Posted on 5/22/13 at 8:32 pm to ThaBigFella
I'm no stock picker, but I bought some at $44 last year...will buy more later this year after the hair clipping(with some scalp loss) BP will take in the La. courts this year. Should be a solid investment.
Posted on 5/22/13 at 8:39 pm to OTIS2
so you forsee more pain before it gets better? A Dip back into the 30s? Seems crazy cheap as it stands right now. Sorry for asking, I just don't really get all the litigation and where it's really truly headed in terms of affecting BP.
This post was edited on 5/22/13 at 8:42 pm
Posted on 5/22/13 at 8:41 pm to OTIS2
quote:
I bought some at $44
Got some in Sept. 2012 for $40.50/share. Scared to get more in case bad news comes out and it tanks. Good upside....just not sure when it will be realized.
ETA: bought it when Obama had the DOJ release a statement saying they'd prosecute BP to the full extent of the law to help Barry's reelection campaign. Dropped like 5% for a few days.
This post was edited on 5/22/13 at 8:45 pm
Posted on 5/22/13 at 8:43 pm to ThaBigFella
I doubt it drops much, but BP's exposure in the BEL Settlement program is likely 2 to 3x what it estimated originally, and it will likely get hammered in the penalty phase of the ongoing trial in Federal district court. There will be plenty of negative SEC reports to be filed...but the storm will blow over eventually.
Posted on 5/22/13 at 8:45 pm to meldawg399
Yep, at 44, I jumped the gun. There will be some drops from where it is, but the long term upside has to be a good bet.
Posted on 5/22/13 at 8:48 pm to OTIS2
quote:
Yep, at 44, I jumped the gun.
I think it went lower from where I got in. Wish I had piles of cash to dollar average cost lower on BP, RIG, & AAPL. But you never when the bottom is, so just got to move when you think it is a good deal.
Posted on 5/22/13 at 9:29 pm to meldawg399
Hmm thanks for all the input guys
Posted on 5/22/13 at 10:12 pm to ThaBigFella
I would be and would have been if I could.
Posted on 5/22/13 at 10:33 pm to ThaBigFella
Why do you care about the share prices of their peers man?
Posted on 5/22/13 at 10:58 pm to acgeaux129
quote:
Why do you care about the share prices of their peers man?
b/c it's lower so it's obviously going to go up, duh.
Posted on 5/23/13 at 9:32 am to ThaBigFella
I own some so I guess I am a hypocrite but the reason why they are priced so much lower than their peers is because they are the worst of the majors. Their assets aren't near the quality that XOM has. Their people aren't near the quality of XOM. Also, they have a worse reputation for corporate strategy and safety.
Not saying it isn't cheap, just saying most people buying a blue chip super majors want the "best" company because they see the value coming from long term performance. Buying BP because it is cheap isn't as much a value play because they aren't as "good" of a company.
Not saying I agree but that seems to be what I would attribute the difference to.
Not saying it isn't cheap, just saying most people buying a blue chip super majors want the "best" company because they see the value coming from long term performance. Buying BP because it is cheap isn't as much a value play because they aren't as "good" of a company.
Not saying I agree but that seems to be what I would attribute the difference to.
Posted on 5/23/13 at 10:53 am to Crbello4Hiceman
I don't doubt your points, but I'd think it's a good bet that BP will ultimately recover to its pre-spill value. I do see it as a money making opportunity over the next two to three years.
This post was edited on 5/23/13 at 4:13 pm
Posted on 5/23/13 at 2:36 pm to OTIS2
I'm with you- I own it, haha.
I was just trying to toss ideas out there as to why it doesn't have the buyers lined up like XOM.
I was just trying to toss ideas out there as to why it doesn't have the buyers lined up like XOM.
Posted on 5/23/13 at 2:56 pm to ThaBigFella
it isn't going up soon. I heard BP is in trouble for lying to share holders about the oil spill payout. it's going to cost a lot more than they prepared for.
Posted on 8/16/13 at 9:42 am to donRANDOMnumbers
So I'm looking hard at BP again... even though it's really not a good idea for me to be so invested in O&G sector but they just seem so cheap that too much risk is built in. They've been at this level for 3 years now. The div yield is over 6%. Seems like they have way more upside based on their asset values to prevent any major drop associated with continued oil spill litigation.
I could see this popping to mid-50s in heart beat.
I could see this popping to mid-50s in heart beat.
This post was edited on 8/17/13 at 8:17 am
Posted on 8/17/13 at 12:33 am to C
My chart shows 5.2 dividend (MSNMoney).
What chart are you looking at?
What chart are you looking at?
Posted on 8/17/13 at 2:16 am to matthew25
Just looked at CNN chart - shows 6.4% yield.
WSJ shows 5.2
Yahoo shows 5.2
Which is correct?
Thanks
WSJ shows 5.2
Yahoo shows 5.2
Which is correct?
Thanks
Posted on 8/17/13 at 8:17 am to matthew25
I was looking at google finance but you are right it's an error if the Div is only .54
Posted on 8/17/13 at 11:35 am to C
Google Finance is showing a 6.4% dividend yield.
This is crazy.
This is crazy.
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