Should the Thunder have traded Harden?

Simmons has been critical of the Harden trade and yet again explained why in Part 3 of his NBA Trade Value column.

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Think about where the Rockets were in October, when they were headed for 30 wins and looking at another season of "Don't worry, everyone, we have cap space and picks and assets, this is gonna work out, we swear!" Somehow they landed the league's best under-30 shooting guard, someone who is guaranteed to make the next seven or eight All-Star teams unless he gets injured, for one year of Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, the 12th pick in a lousy 2013 draft and a future Dallas pick. Let's be honest — that's a miracle. That was a franchise-saving trade. They didn't just give up three quarters and a dime for a dollar; they inadvertently got a $2 bill back.

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In football, you can build around a franchise quarterback, draft smartly, protect your cap, repeatedly trade down for more assets and do everything else that Bill Belichick did since 2001. That mind-set doesn't work in basketball. You can find/afford three blue-chippers only if you're lucky. You can't "trade down" and assume you'll replace a blue-chipper with multiple pieces; it never really worked. You also can't assume that you're getting 10 more cracks at the Finals, or that your best players will stay healthy year after year after year. The '86 Rockets thought they had a perennial contender. So did the '88 Mavericks, the '91 Blazers, the '92 Cavaliers, the '93 Suns, the '94 Warriors, the '97 Bullets, the '03 Kings, the '05 Suns … but the truth is, you never know.

The Thunder easily could have kept together three of the top six guys on this list for one more year, then decided on their future this summer. They didn't. And they didn't because they didn't know James Harden was THIS good. That's why they kept Serge Ibaka over him, and that's why they didn't just say, "A year from now, we'll amnesty (the Soon-To-Be-Totally, Completely & Irrevocably Washed-Up) Perkins and keep Harden." It's one of the single biggest tactical mistakes any NBA contender has ever made — the modern equivalent of the Lakers freaking out after the '84 Finals, then dealing James Worthy to Detroit for one year of Kelly Tripucka, Tony Campbell and two future no. 1 picks.20

In The Book of Basketball, I wrote an entire chapter about the 33 biggest "What Ifs?" in NBA history. What if Portland had taken Jordan? What if Kareem had gone to the ABA? What if Lenny Bias hadn't overdosed? What if the '77 Blazers had kept Moses Malone? Well, "What if Oklahoma City had kept Durant, Westbrook and Harden together?" has already leapfrogged into that NBA What If? stratosphere. What a bummer. I wish we could press a RESET button and do this one over.

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Kevin Martin was more than a solid contributor this season, but he's hardly someone who will be a solid contributor for the long-term. And NBA draft picks just aren't that valuable, especially in a year like this where the draft is weak. Seems like it would've been smarter to take your chances with your Big 3 that rivals Miami's, even it's just one year.