bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika - Page 4 - TigerDroppings.com

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St Augustine
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


Nobody is saying they are great. We have 2 very young ends in our 3-4. Bunkley is being paid to be a starter he should be a solid nose for the time being. Hawthorne should be a solid mlb to pair with Lofton.

If we had even an average LT I wouldn't be that worried, but we don't at the moment. Protecting Brees is extremely important.






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St Augustine
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


Also I'd love to be able to have a LT who could go one on one with better rushers without needing as much chipping help.





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Sentrius
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


quote:

bonethug0108


Honestly, you're one of the better new posters on this board and I enjoy your posts.

Hope you stick around.






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bonethug0108
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


quote:

Nobody is saying they are great. We have 2 very young ends in our 3-4. Bunkley is being paid to be a starter he should be a solid nose for the time being. Hawthorne should be a solid mlb to pair with Lofton.

If we had even an average LT I wouldn't be that worried, but we don't at the moment. Protecting Brees is extremely important.


This is exactly my point here. We don't even have a Bushrod level LT at the moment and that scares the shite out of me. Payton also said it keeps him up at night. You're bat shite crazy if you think they won't trade up for Johnson if he falls to 10.

Think of it this way. 1-10 how much of an impact would drafting each position have on our team. LT is a 10. OLB is about a 2. Safety is about an 8.

Not accounting for injuries and if we get a top player that pans out at each position:
QB-0(only need one)
RB-0(too deep already)
FB-0(only need one and Collins is good)
WR-7(big upgrade over Morgan/Toon)
TE-2(slight upgrade over Watson)
OG-1(very slight upgrade over Grubbs)
RT-6(moderate upgrade over Strief or one of the other young guys)
LT-10(huge upgrade over Brown/Smith)
K-7(short kick consistency has been an issue with Hartley)

DE-5(moderate upgrade over Hicks and co.)
NT-3(slight upgrade over Hicks/Bunkley)
ILB-4(slight to moderate upgrade over Hawthorne/Vilma)
OLB-2(addition of talent; not really an upgrade)
CB-7(big upgrade over Robinson/White)
FS-8(big upgrade over Jenkins)
SS-6(moderate upgrade over Harper and depth)
P-0(The LEG)

Edit:
Thanks Sentrius. I've been lurking for about 2 years and been dying to jump in on some of these conversations.



This post was edited on 4/20 at 8:09 pm


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Suntiger
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


Y'all are way oversold on the defensive players and these rookie LTs.

And undersold on the defensive players at the top of the draft.

None of these players besides Butler have NFL experience with a 3-4. Besides Lofton and Jordan, the only experience this front seven has is getting their asses handed to them on a regular basis.

As for the LT spot. Yeah, having Bushrod back may have given us more comfort, but he wasn't a stud. He was average and there's no reason Brown or Smith can't be just as average. And nobody is saying these LTs in the draft are potential stud LTs who you plug in and play for the next 10 years. They've actually said if they were in past drafts, they would be late first, early second rounders. They could be the next Robert Gallery.






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bonethug0108
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


quote:

And nobody is saying these LTs in the draft are potential stud LTs who you plug in and play for the next 10 years


You've been missing the word then. I've heard several people(and these are actual former front office and talent evaluating people, not Kiper or the espn goons) say the top 2 are some of the best LT prospects in years outside of only a couple of guys the past 5 or so drafts. They said Johnson is close to on par with Joeckel and Fisher and not to be too surprised if teams value each differently.






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blueslover
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


TLDR warning
here's an essence of disagreement of some... that is, how you rate need. That's thread worthy but I'll just chip in here...

So in the rate the position need 1-10 I'm assuming we're only talking about the the #15 pick. All will agree that Lane Johnson will be gone by #15. On the trade, San Diego would never trade that away. If you rated their needs LT would be far and away greater than even here. But say ya could... I'd call #75 + #144 (249pts) fair compensation. That is even a discount for the 250pts from #15 to #10. So is Lane Johnson worth your 1st, 3rd, & 5th Rd draft picks? Not for me. I think we can get guys vying for reps with that #75. Anyway back to need rating...

QB-RB-FB 0 sure
WR- big disagreement from a 7. On this team even a #15 would have to earn the reps behind Colston and Moore. So at best he's a #3 WR to start. Toon was a player discounted for injuries. He'll get a shot too. Healthy he could make Colston difficult to keep as his contract escalates.
TE dunno if it's even a 2 for a rookie
OG 0 for me, no guarantee even a Cooper or Warmack would be as good as Grubbs
RT- Xed off, could be a giant upgrade but with the logjam of RTs it makes no sense
LT- here's the trick, one of the top 3, sure a big upgrade. But the cost of only having a 4th and 6th pick afterwards seems too exorbitant for that upgrade. The next tier down all would be reaches at #15. So put whatever you want for trading up. But for who will be available at #15 the upgrade number is extremely lower. ( Anyone remember newly acquired Jason Smith was the #2 overall pick just 4 years ago?)
K- well if we're using 1st Rd this isn't even applicable. Beyond even 1st Rd I don't know of any college kicker that would immediately make it a 7 improvement.

DE I can go with 5 mostly cuz we're pretty optimistic about Jordan but don't really know what we have beyond that
NT Big disagreement here. I'd call Star a potential 9-10 upgrade over Bunkley/Hicks. Richardson 8-9 potentially.
OLB- big disagreement again. We have two guys who have never played the position and one who has started 2 games in 4 years. I consume as much black n gold koolaid as anyone around here. How anyone can be confident and assured that these three are THE answer I dunno. Believe me, I want that as deep in my soul as anyone. We know how weak the pass rush has been. In essence the expectation for that is being rested on the 2 OLBs way more than anyone else. I want to be stacked there. In a 3-4 for the two most necessary ingredients are an effective nose tackle plugging and OLB pass rush. Pour the resources there.
CB 7 is an upgrade over Robinson and White, in essence the nickel & dime spots. No #15 CB would be a sure starter over either Greer or Lewis. So for me I can see getting a CB to build on but for upgrading your #3 or 4 CB I can only say 3 or 4.
FS big disagreement again. Vacarro might be the only one who would challenge Jenkins to start. Any other at #15 would be a reach. Might they do someone? Sure. But all we can do is try to decipher our own estimation of value. That's hard enough much less trying to say they like this or that player more. On that btw, methinks the Reid talk is reading way to heavy in to any tidbits read. Smokescreens are common. Also, plenty of teams like a player. But the trick is the value where ya get them. Reid at #15 is a joke to me. Reid at #75 and I'm saying, Okay, that's a solid pick.
SS- I may go Elam & Cyprien as upgrades over Harper but would be disappointed with either at #15. So upgrade? Maybe but at the detriment of the team overall. After those two some may end up better but certainly are not surefire upgrades.






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bonethug0108
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


My ratings weren't for need. Those are impact ratings. Basically how much would a top player at any position that panned out impact the team. It doesn't rely on where we pick, just an IF we were to get a top player.

For WR, you need 3 deep in today's nfl. I think the top WRs in this draft are an immediate upgrade over Morgan(who I have high hopes for) and Toon. Our offense would be even more dynamic with one of these guys.

TE is for blocking skills when using a TE to block and receiving skills when using double TE sets and putting both in routes. I think the top TEs would be slightly better receivers than Watson and possible decent enough blockers.

OG I think the top 2 could be a small upgrade over Grubbs(which is why it's just a 1). Could also see a 0 here.

RT would be an obvious upgrade but we are not devoid of talent there.

LT we agree on aside from misunderstanding my ratings.

K I'll admit to not knowing much about this class. Maybe there is no upgrade but we could use consistency. 7 was probably high anyway, especially for a kicker. Maybe a 4-5 if any of these Ks are worth a lick.

NT we disagree(mostly because I think people are undervaluing Bunkley and Hicks). I don't see the top guys being that much better, especially since it's one of the hardest positions to adjust to.

OLB we disagree again. I don't see the top guys as that much more skilled(and in some cases not as skilled).

FS I think any would be a huge improvement over Jenkins. I thought zone would suit him better than anyone yet he seemed to be the worst afflicted by it. And he was the Bushrod(slightly better) of the defense under Williams, only showing a few small flashes. IAQ outplayed him and I don't think he is great by any means.

SS I think some of these guys will be good in the box(not as good as Harper but good enough), but will be much better in coverage and that's where the impact comes from.



This post was edited on 4/20 at 9:35 pm


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blueslover
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


with the WRs it is still the #3 WR you're talking about? It may be a 7 over the #3 but in the big picture a #3 WR upgrade isn't a 7 upgrade to the position. Comparatively Ryan Nassib at #15 would be a 10+ upgrade... over the #2 QB. But that doesn't translate to a 10+ at the position. I don't see any WR that would come in day one and be a #1 WR. Maybe the top 5 would be a #2. I dunno if I could call that a giant upgrade.

Need? Impact? The bigger the need the bigger the impact can be. How about this line of thinking...

Which is the bigger upgrade?

Reaching for a LT at #15 (Fragel, Armsread, etc) or adding a proven 34OLB that has had 28 sacks in the past two years over Butler, Wilson, or Galette (24 sacks in 123 NFL games). My take is I hope for one of those three to get 10 sacks. with Jones I'd expect 10 sacks.

Lane Johnson is nice. But methinks ya gotta get before SD at #10 if ya want him. Is he worth losing your 3rd &5th Rder trading up to #10? I think a 3rd Rd Armstead, Fragel, Faulk, etc could compete for starting reps right up with Smith & Brown. The draft picks to trade that would be lost are too vital- this year maybe more than most.

Again, NT & OLB are THE keys to a succesful 3-4. Bigger upgrade a better #2 or 3 WR that would have to be on fire to get 60+ catches or a NT (Lotulelei) that has Ngata type game changing potential?

I agree to disagree. A lot seems to come down to how much faith you have in what is there at NT and OLB. My basis is more on history and past experience. You are much more confident in what they might do. The second factor for me is how vital the NT and OLB play is in the 3-4. Defensive improvement is predicated on NT & OLB success. In a 4-3 ya gotta have some DE pass rush and a solid MLB. That is where you prioritize your resources. Until we get we have proven 3-4 NT & OLB production I keep infusing talent there.




This post was edited on 4/20 at 10:03 pm


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lsuguy84
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


If I jump up for a defensive player, I go for Jordan. Call me crazy, but that's who I want. It won't happen, but that's who I would love to see us pick.





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SSHellfighter
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


quote:

OLB- big disagreement again. We have two guys who have never played the position and one who has started 2 games in 4 years. I consume as much black n gold koolaid as anyone around here. How anyone can be confident and assured that these three are THE answer I dunno.


Blues bring solid logic to the board, again.
I agree. I don't know why so many people are confident on our OLBs.



Bonethug, nice post. I don't agree with some of the things you covered, but i like the work you put into the post.






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blueslover
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


quote:

I go for Jordan.


had him to the Saints in my first mock when it seemed in the realm of possibility. Unfortunately no more. I think he and Floyd are the first two defensive players taken.






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lsuguy84
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


Yeah I remember seeing that. I like Jarvis Jones, but I really like Jordan. You can't teach that length and size. I'm sure he will be gone.





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bonethug0108
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


Again I'm not saying anything about who we get at 15. I'm talking straight number one player(whoever you think it to be) at any position in this draft and they turn out to be what you expect.

And this is not taking into account injuries so backup QB/K/P/FB are all non factors in this.

On WR again, you need 3 deep. Moore is really a slot guy(who can play outside, but the most damage is done in the slot) and any one of the top WRs in this draft outside of Austin will immediately have more impact on the outside than Morgan or Toon if they pan out(which was one of my stipulations, assuming these guys pan out). The impact will be felt, imo.

Again, I don't think the NTs are that much better than Bunkley or Hicks. I'm not as high on them as the media is and am much higher on Bunkley and Hicks than most people here. Yes the top 2 or 3 would be an upgrade, but only slightly imo.

Also, NT is not as vital in Ryan's 3-4 as it is in a 2-gap scheme. They aren't much more important than the ends are. The ILBs actually have a bigger role in Ryan's scheme and I feel comfortable in what we have there. They will read and fill the secondary gaps on runs and have under coverage responsibilities on pass plays. OLBs play about the same role in Ryan's scheme as a 2-gap for setting the edge and rushing with some cover responsibilities.

Also, FS in Ryan's scheme is pretty important. He's being asked to be the last line of defense(very often single high) as the SS is more often than not in the box or close to it. I'd much rather an upgrade there over Jenkins and I think it'd have much more of an impact over yet another young, fast OLB who I see as slightly better than what we have at best.

And the Chargers are 11, not 10(though I may just be misreading your post as it could go either way). Titans are 10 and they can get a guard a 15 no problem so I'm sure they'd be willing to trade. Our 3rd and 5th with a swap of 1sts comes out to 1 point off of an even trade.

Yes know a lot of people here don't want that. Most here are wanting a trade back. It's not about what we want though. It's about what Payton wants and given his track record if Johnson is there at 10 that will be the move.

So for the most impact I'd go LT, FS, WR, and then CB if they aren't sold on PRob or White(same as WR, you need 3 deep).

Looking at next year, I'd add in DE and SS and definitely CB as Smith, Coleman, Greer, and Harper could all be gone.

That makes Safety even more important this year if they can play either position.






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bonethug0108
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


quote:

Bonethug, nice post. I don't agree with some of the things you covered, but i like the work you put into the post.



I definitely don't expect everyone to agree and it's nice to see and discuss the different viewpoints.

Much like each team values different players and positions differently, we do the same here.

I know I highly disagree with most when it comes to OLB as for what we have, what we can get, and I don't think it's as important in Ryan's scheme as FS, ILB, NT, CB, or DE. I'd put it in front of SS as the second least important position, with the other positions being close to each other in importance. This is also the reason why I think Harper will be fine in his rover position.






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Bduhon55
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


No doubt Lane Johnson would be a solid pick at 15, but trading up to get him is dumb. The Saints have always had success with mid round OL draft picks.





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St Augustine
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


quote:

OLB- big disagreement again. We have two guys who have never played the position and one who has started 2 games in 4 years. I consume as much black n gold koolaid as anyone around here. How anyone can be confident and assured that these three are THE answer I dunno.


No problem with adding guys later. No problem adding Jones early as he brings a dominant history at the position or even ansah if he's there(he won't be) as his size and speed are just freakish. Do not want Jordan or Mingo. They haven't proven jack in the NFL or played the position in college. We have one guy who produced as an undersized speedy DE and one guy who produced as much as possible backing up one of the best in the game. They produced comparable numbers to our the collegiate prospects but at the NFL level . And we have a third who essentially a physical clone of Mingo. I'd be willing to bet that our guys have just as big an impact as the two projects in Mingo and Jordan.



This post was edited on 4/20 at 10:53 pm


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bonethug0108
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


Want to post this separately.

In the 1-gap 3-4 the linemen are asked to penetrate, the ILBs are asked to read and fill/under cover on passing downs, and the OLBs are asked to hold the edge/rush on passing downs with some cover responsibilities.

In Ryan's scheme in particular, the corners will man cover and sometimes press for run support, the FS will play deep(or man cover on some plays), and the SS will play run support and blitz while occasionally covering.

What most people think with a 3-4 is the 2-gap in which the NT holds the C and a Guard, the DEs hold the edge, the OLBs rush(more important than in the 1-gap because the linemen don't rush and this is where blues is coming from), and the ILBs will make most of the tackles.

From the sounds of it, blues is thinking of the 2-gap where your rush mostly only comes from the OLBs and the NT has to hold two linemen on every play.

In Ryan's scheme all 3 linemen rush with 1 or 2 of the OLBs so they are less important and the NT does not have to hold two linemen as he is penetrating his gap. This puts the most pressure on the ILBs to clean up the plays and they are the most important position in Ryan's scheme up front. It's also why the SS plays in the box to help in run support.



This post was edited on 4/20 at 11:01 pm


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bonethug0108
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


quote:

The Saints have always had success with mid round OL draft picks


They hit on one gem(Evans) and one guy that fell from the 1st round because of character issues(Nicks). Strief has been solid for a 7th rounder but not a great player. Bushrod played like a mid rounder so that's not a success, it's breaking even. Tennant was a bust, Brown is on his way(as a 2nd rounder no less), and nobody even remembers Andy Allemen.

Are there any LTs that will fall because of character issues(Nicks)? If not there is no reason to think we will just pull another rabbit(Evans) out of our ass.

@St. Aug, I completely agree we do not need a project at OLB. Jones is the only one I see them taking.



This post was edited on 4/20 at 11:01 pm


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St Augustine
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re: bonethug's First Saints Talk Mock Draft 1.0.2, now with Paprika


quote:

The Saints have always had success with mid round OL draft picks


They've hit on ONE find. This is a very reckless way of looking at building a team IMO. They've also sucked for the most part at drafting defensive players and deciding who the want to give big contracts too. Every situation is different and the sample sizes are too small to make generalizations on.

Eta:see that this was covered. Sorry.



This post was edited on 4/20 at 11:19 pm


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