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Started By
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re: 1/28/13 Basketball-old kelly k. and spreadsheets DO NOT WORK bet thread-NSFW
Posted on 1/28/13 at 3:00 pm to 5 Deep
Posted on 1/28/13 at 3:00 pm to 5 Deep
quote:
gonna play this as my final spot in my open parlay
If I had hit the first 3, I would probably take a heavy fav on the ML
I'm really conservative though
2
Posted on 1/28/13 at 3:03 pm to maclauer
quote:
take a heavy fav on the ML
This
Posted on 1/28/13 at 3:04 pm to negatiger17
quote:
BetOnline has it at +2 -115. Should I pull the trigger now?
almost 90% of public $ is on the Warriors, so it could move up on its own... or it could RLM
I'm pretty terrible at picking the right time to grab a line, so maybe someone else can advise better
Like yesterday within 5 mins of grabbing Cs +3.5 it went to 4, and then to 5 within 30 mins (bc of Rondo)
Posted on 1/28/13 at 3:10 pm to maclauer
On weekdays most line movement is usually real close to 5pm central time from what I have seen.
Posted on 1/28/13 at 3:13 pm to maclauer
quote:
If I had hit the first 3, I would probably take a heavy fav on the ML
normally yeah but I only put $1 on it so if I took a heavy fav ML the payout would be like $10 and if I hit the Nets 1Q over 50 the payout is like $17. worth the risk especially since I havent lost many when tailing your picks
Posted on 1/28/13 at 3:18 pm to maclauer
Toronto is one of my least favorite NBA teams to bet on. I find them so unpredictable, but fading the pub when 90% of the bets are on a tired road team in the middle of a long trip is a pretty easy play. Don't think you will need the points. Toronto ML should be safe.
Posted on 1/28/13 at 3:27 pm to maclauer
Nets 1Q -3
Wizards 1H -4
Wizards 1H -4
Posted on 1/28/13 at 3:30 pm to maclauer
quote:
Nets 1Q -3
Wizards 1H -4
Magic 1Q +3 and Kings 1H +4 locked in
Posted on 1/28/13 at 3:33 pm to 23hvlhoff94
quote:
Magic 1Q +3 and Kings 1H +4 locked in
atta boy
Posted on 1/28/13 at 3:53 pm to maclauer
It seems like waiting until 30 minutes from tip off is the best time to catch the line movement from an influx of bets. Interestingly, the moneyline on the Raptors went from 10% to 35% in a matter of an hour. Some one made a large bet. I do like toronto tonight and will wait for that +2!!!
Posted on 1/28/13 at 3:55 pm to maclauer
Anyone else like Louisville laying 6 at home against Pitt?? I think the bounce back tonight with a 78-60 type win
Posted on 1/28/13 at 3:55 pm to BGUT
What are you using to track the public percentage? Some only take from one book.
Posted on 1/28/13 at 3:57 pm to maclauer
The best part of a small card like today is I have plenty of time to look at each matchup from every angle.
The worst part of a small card like today is I get done running my numbers early and I spend the rest of the day talking myself out of every single play I liked initially.
I think I will have this figured out by 5
The worst part of a small card like today is I get done running my numbers early and I spend the rest of the day talking myself out of every single play I liked initially.
I think I will have this figured out by 5
Posted on 1/28/13 at 3:57 pm to BGUT
Wow great job on the spreadsheet bama, it makes it that much easier
Posted on 1/28/13 at 4:03 pm to bamafan425
scoresandodds.com tracks all bets from 8 different sources in VEGAS and Offshore
Posted on 1/28/13 at 4:07 pm to BGUT
Yeah I use scoresandodds 9 times out of 10.
I will also look at covers consensus and sports insights.com's free betting trends to get a broader view of what everyone else is betting.
I will also look at covers consensus and sports insights.com's free betting trends to get a broader view of what everyone else is betting.
Posted on 1/28/13 at 4:12 pm to 21JumpStreet
I'm not using the spreadsheet for now, but here are my plays tonight:
NCAAB: (5-3, +2.4u)
Louisville -6 - L, bad luck
Eastern Washington -2.5 - W
South Florida +11 - L
Louisville/Pitt U126 - W
Marquette/USF U122 - W
WVU +8.5/.5u ML - W/L
Eastern Washington -.5 2H - W
NBA: (1-1, even)
Denver -5.5 - L
Charlotte +12 - W
Leaning Utah -3, and Golden State -2.
Probably won't play any of those though.
NHL: (2-3, -1.1u)
Carolina - L
Dallas - L
Nashville - L
Vancouver - W
Edmonton - W
Leaning Colorado/Edmonton O5.5
NCAAB: (5-3, +2.4u)
Louisville -6 - L, bad luck
Eastern Washington -2.5 - W
South Florida +11 - L
Louisville/Pitt U126 - W
Marquette/USF U122 - W
WVU +8.5/.5u ML - W/L
Eastern Washington -.5 2H - W
NBA: (1-1, even)
Denver -5.5 - L
Charlotte +12 - W
Leaning Utah -3, and Golden State -2.
Probably won't play any of those though
. NHL: (2-3, -1.1u)
Carolina - L
Dallas - L
Nashville - L
Vancouver - W
Edmonton - W
Leaning Colorado/Edmonton O5.5
This post was edited on 1/28/13 at 11:26 pm
Posted on 1/28/13 at 4:14 pm to dgtiger3
I use scoresandodds.com to track line movements and correspond the betting percentages to see any fishy movements. It is just one tool of many that I use to confirm bets.
I also like thepredictiontracker.com This website takes different handicapping website power ratings and averages them for games. The "prediction average" is another tool to see if I have any value on a line.
I also find ESPN's Pickcenter (have to be an insider) is very helpful.
I also like thepredictiontracker.com This website takes different handicapping website power ratings and averages them for games. The "prediction average" is another tool to see if I have any value on a line.
I also find ESPN's Pickcenter (have to be an insider) is very helpful.
Posted on 1/28/13 at 4:15 pm to NOLA1128
quote:
NOLA1128
I have a feeling we are going to be on opposite sides on a lot of shite tonight.
BOL
Posted on 1/28/13 at 4:24 pm to dgtiger3
quote:
I have a feeling we are going to be on opposite sides on a lot of shite tonight.
What are you looking at right now?
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