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re: Offense vs Defense in the NFL? Which wins championships?
Posted on 1/11/13 at 2:51 pm to H-Town Tiger
Posted on 1/11/13 at 2:51 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:
The NFL hates the Raiders
Well, lets be honest, who actually liked the Seamonster?
On that note, I will admit the tuck rule is fricking retarded and has no place in the NFL.
1
Posted on 1/11/13 at 3:28 pm to TheSexecutioner
Offense
Posted on 1/11/13 at 3:29 pm to AllBamaDoesIsWin
quote:
In the NFL Offense wins games, the defense wins the Super Bowl
This doesn't make any sense.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 3:39 pm to BlueIndian420
You need an elite QB with an at least ok defense, or at least an ok QB with a dominant defense.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 3:40 pm to AllBamaDoesIsWin
quote:
In the NFL Offense wins games, the defense wins the Super Bowl
Gotta love clichés thrown out on tv that folks latch on to.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 3:44 pm to shel311
you need a really good to incredible qb to win a super bowl in the modern nfl, look at the past 6 winners
2006-peyton
2007-eli
2008-ben
2009-brees
2010- rodgers
2011- eli
in todays nfl no trent dilfer types can win a super bowl like he did over a decade ago.
2006-peyton
2007-eli
2008-ben
2009-brees
2010- rodgers
2011- eli
in todays nfl no trent dilfer types can win a super bowl like he did over a decade ago.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 3:44 pm to shel311
the facts say that neither one is really favorable
On my phone, maybe someone can assist with the non mobile version.
It's a great link with lots of data.
On my phone, maybe someone can assist with the non mobile version.
It's a great link with lots of data.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 3:48 pm to shel311
Yeah that's a pretty awesome LINK
I look forward to the MSB coming up with a definitive answer to the question after 4 games this weekend though.
quote:
Except that it isn’t necessarily so. What we found: when it comes to winning championships—or winning in general, for that matter—defense and offense carry uncannily similar weight. Among the 45 NFL Super Bowls, the better defensive team, measured by points allowed that season, has won 29 times. The better offensive team has won 25 times. It’s a slight edge to defense, but it’s a pretty close call, and not different from random chance. The Super Bowl champ has been a top-five defensive team during the regular season on 28 occasions. How many times was the Super Bowl champ ranked among the top five in offense? 28.
But we’re talking about only 45 games, so let’s broaden the sample size. There have been 407 NFL playoff games held over the last 44 seasons. The better defensive teams have won 58 percent of the time. The better offensive teams have won 62 percent of the time. Slight edge to the offense, but, again, pretty even. (Sometimes the winning team is better both offensively and defensively, which explains why the total exceeds 100 percent.)
Collectively, teams with a top-five defense have won 180 playoff games. Teams with a top-five offense have won 184 games. Accounting for almost 10,000 regular season games, the better defensive team has won 66.5 percent of the time compared to 67.4 percent of the time for the better offensive team. Again, a negligible difference.
What happens when the best offenses line up against the best defenses, when, say, if the 2006 Indianapolis Colts had had to face the 2000 Baltimore Ravens? It turns out that 27 Super Bowls have pitted a top-five offense against a top-five defense. The best offensive team won 13 and the best defensive team 14. Another virtual stalemate.
I look forward to the MSB coming up with a definitive answer to the question after 4 games this weekend though.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 3:51 pm to floridatigah
quote:
I look forward to the MSB coming up with a definitive answer to the question after 4 games this weekend though
That's so true
Posted on 1/11/13 at 3:56 pm to shel311
quote:
Gotta love clichés thrown out on tv that folks latch on to.
you've got to take 'em 1 game at a time
Posted on 1/11/13 at 3:57 pm to Jcorye1
quote:
will admit the tuck rule is fricking retarded and has no place in the NFL.
I can't believe they haven't changed it in all these years. The Texans got screwed by it vs Indy week 17.
It is the reason I never really liked Tom Brady and I don't even like the Raiders
Posted on 1/11/13 at 3:58 pm to shel311
quote:
the facts say that neither one is really favorable
Pretty much. Definitely helps to have at least one of the two. It is a fricking shame that others said and then Jordan immortalized that "Defense wins championships" cause everyone just slurps whatever he says.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 3:58 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:
I can't believe they haven't changed it in all these years.
I can, it would mean admitting how stupid it was to begin with.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 4:00 pm to Jcorye1
quote:
Thats your problem there.
Use scoring defense, it's a much better indicator.
I just used a basic metric. But turns out, the evidence doesn't change much using scoring D. So, I don't know what the problem was or what point you were trying to make. Because, in fact, using scoring defense makes the argument that "defense wins championships" even stronger:
(total offense)/(total defense/scoring defense)
Strong D:
_(9) / (5/_2) 2010 Green Bay
(22) / (1/_1) 2008 Steelers
(16) / (7/17) 2007 Giants
(15) / (4/_3) 2005 Steelers
_(7) / (9/_3) 2004 Patriots <- just a great team on both sides of the ball
(17) / (7/_1) 2003 Patriots
(24) / (1/_1) 2002 Buccaneers
(19) / (8/_6) 2001 Patriots
(16) / (2/_1) 2000 Ravens
Strong O:
_(8) / (27/25) 2011 Giants
_(1) / (25/20) 2009 Saints
_(3) / (21/23) 2006 Colts
This post was edited on 1/11/13 at 4:02 pm
Posted on 1/11/13 at 4:00 pm to shel311
I love Scorecasting and have to give an thanks to this board (probably you and for sure VKC) for making me aware of it.
This is rather telling:
This is rather telling:
quote:
Collectively, teams with a top-five defense have won 180 playoff games. Teams with a top-five offense have won 184 games. Accounting for almost 10,000 regular season games, the better defensive team has won 66.5 percent of the time compared to 67.4 percent of the time for the better offensive team. Again, a negligible difference
This post was edited on 1/11/13 at 4:11 pm
Posted on 1/11/13 at 4:02 pm to Archie Bengal Bunker
It makes it almost essential to be a top 5 scoring defense.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 4:02 pm to Jcorye1
quote:
I can, it would mean admitting how stupid it was to begin with.
nah, they change rules all the time. Think they aren't going to change that stupid rule about not reviewing a play if the coach throws the red flag on an auto review play
Posted on 1/11/13 at 4:03 pm to H-Town Tiger
quote:That's awesome.
I love Scorecasting and have to give an assist to this board (probably you and VKC) for making me aware of it.
It's a must read for folks who like logic and reason and getting real answers to a lot of the sports myths we grew up on.
Posted on 1/11/13 at 4:04 pm to Vicks Kennel Club
quote:
then Jordan immortalized that "Defense wins championships
it was convential wisdom long before he said that. FWIW
This post was edited on 1/11/13 at 4:07 pm
Posted on 1/11/13 at 4:07 pm to shel311
My favorite is playing the worst player in softball at catcher vs right field. It makes so much sense after you think about
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