Looking Ahead 2013 Fantasy Draft

You just made an argument against your own point. The fact that so few running backs stand out compared to their counterparts tells you those few running backs should be the first players taken.

Based on your data, 8 owners (67% in a 12 team league) will get a qb with over 4,000 yards. Again based on your data, as many as 13 qbs will achieve this, meaning every owner will get one. Based on that, why would I want to draft one too early?

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Also elite QB's score more overall, using league I played in (PPR) you had 5 QB's with 300+ points (4 point TD passes) and only 1 RB over 275 points (Peterson)

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This is a faulty argument because you shouldn't care who scores more points overall, but how much they outscore others at their position. It's called value based drafting. How much do the elite guys at the position outscore average starters at the same position? That is the question you have to ask yourself when deciding who to take in the first round.

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Top 3 RB's based on many drafts (Foster, McCoy, Rice) finished 2,20, 4 among running back scores

Top 3 QB's based on many drafts (Brady, Rodgers, Brees) finished 1,3,2 among QB scores also highest scores in our league.

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IMO, this is the best argument for drafting a qb early. Typically, they are easier to predict than rbs. However, I would say the RB projections were more consistent than they appear. McCoy was hurt, and injuries happen. The #1 guy would typically be drafted in the top 2, but was coming off a major injury and no one knew what to expect.

The goal with your early picks is not to pick the top player, but ones that are least likely to flame out. This is why you pick the QB early.

Rodgers, Brees, and Brady were drafted as the top three QB's. Look at where they ended. Very rarely do top QB's flame out.

On the other hand, the turnover of RB's is risky. Teams are far more likely to move a new back than a new QB. Furthermore, the player who ends up in the endzone with TD's are pretty damn random. Look at Shady with his decrease in TD's from like 20 to 4 or 5 (despite missing games - the TD pace fell precipitously).

Foster, Rice, and McCoy were the top three RB's drafted. You hit on two out of three and only one of the three ended up in the top three (of course, Arian in fourth is not bad at all).

Just too much of a risk taking a RB first when you get Brees, Rodgers, or Brady.

Imo its all about getting the right value for each position. For example, in 7 money leagues this year and remarkably went 7-0 with 1rst place finishes. All different leagues with different scoring anywhere from 8 - 20 teams. The number of teams In the league is going to play a big part. For example. Everything over 14 teams I would take an elite qb with a high pick bc the pt differential bw the top and guys that you can grab in a later round will be huge as compared to being able to get somewhat decent rb n wr production in the same situation. In my 12 team and fewer leagues I stock piled early on top rbs and wrs and took a couple gambles on position players such as cj spiller and Cobb. By doing that was able to grab Matt Ryan in the later rounds of multiple drafts bc I felt their offense would explode this year. The gamble paid off and got huge production out of Ryan but still would of won w slightly above average production out of him. All In all I think its just value based drafting and what you feel you can get in the later rounds either way.

QB seems pretty deep next year. There are at least 8 I wouldn't mind having, so I'll probably hold off pretty late on QB next season. My personal rankings will probably have Megatron higher than most. I'd take him over just about any player other than Peterson in our league next season

Looking at QB next year you could have
Rodgers
Brees
Brady
P. Manning
Ryan
T. Romo
RGIII
Cam
Luck

Stafford and Eli both had disappointing seasons after having a huge 2011 and could not follow it up. Bradford had a big year under the radar and Freeman/Flacco were very hit and miss.

Wilson came on at the end of the year as well, but like I stated earlier the Top 3 you know they will reach 4500 yards and 30+ touchdowns everyone else is hope.

I think Wilson and Kaep could both be solid next season also. Even if they don't blow up as often as some of the others, they should have pretty high floors thanks to the running yards/TDs

I doubt Lynch will be a 2nd rounder next year. Dude has had 2 really good back to back seasons.


As of right now, my next year top 4 would be:

1a-AP
1b-Foster
3-Calvin
4-Rice


I only play PPR leagues

So Top 12 (in no particular order)
1. Rodgers
2. Brees
3. Brady
4. Calvin
5. Foster
6. Rice
7. McCoy
8. Peterson
9. D. Martin
10. AJ Green
11. Gronk
12. Lynch

Possibly?

I won my league this year by going forte,mjd,aj green,l fitz,vernon Davis,rivers. Unfortunately, almost none of those worked out but i managed to get some trades to win. Next year, I think im going to go with the sure pick, instead of chancing it