re: The Time Table for the Dollar

quote:

---

Thanks but I'm a rookie. I don't understand this.

---

It is so very complicated and that's why the gold bugs have everyone fooled about what is really taking place.

I am simple, so the way I see it, we already had the real inflation during the boom that went way too far adrift. What they are doing is trying to keep the system from blowing up from a period of too much leverage. I compare it to a balloon. If you let the air out too fast, the balloon flies out of your hand. You loose control.

Google Ray Dalio and "Beautiful Deleveraging" and read it. He calls it beautiful, but I would say that it is ELEGANT. May help you understand.

Have I been pissed at the FED? Yes, definitely. I am VERY angry that the bail out of the banking system is carried on the backs of savers. It has cost my 97 year old mother tens of thousands of dollars. I was pissed when the FED let the price of commods and especially food get too high. I felt that it was way too dangerous. I am angry because we are in this situation in the first place. IMO, this could have been prevented.

However, I am not so stupid to realize that the alternatives were total collapse. Nobody wants that. There has been a lot of jaw boning lately from all the Centrals Banks. You have to look at what they are actually doing. Again, think about the balloon and that money is the air.

This is not an exact explanation, but the money that has been "printed" so far is basically replacing the money that has gone to money heaven and been destroyed through debt write offs and deleveraging. Most of the money is sitting in bank reserves. The Fed is attempting a balancing act. They have been successful thus far and far more successful than Japan or the EU.

The Fed is telling you exactly what it is doing.
The links I referenced show when they add and when they drain the system. They post their operations.

Here is a site that reports the Slosh...

LINK

I hope this helps.

Neither. Just forgot to capetalize slu, dick!

quote:

---

the deflation/depression camp (which tends to think cash and the dollar is king).

---

Those people exist?

quote:

---

I don't know how much validity there is to these petrodollar recycling and petrodollar warfare theories, but again, what else are countries going to trade in? Certainly not euros at this time. I know there is some talk about Iran and Russia trading oil for gold. Who knows?

---

My strong point is not global currency markets, but I am not seeing how that would crush the dollar's value. Liquidity, maybe. Value, no.

quote:

---

Liquidity

---

quote:

---

oil

---

I see what you did there

:rimshot:

quote:

---

That being said, their growing middle class and desire for prosperity might cause the nation to junk their approach to international property laws, etc. which have previously held them back. When the US economy is surpassed, china could become a much more attractive nation on which to base the global economy. Is this a threat to the underpinnings which have allowed us to run the deficit and use stimulus/easing while avoiding negative side affects? Serious question- I don't want to over-react to 1 article out there.

---

China is a moral dumpster fire. No way anyone give them the keys to the world's reserve currency. I would almost rather give it to Greece.

Here's an interesting question: Could any country that targets exchange rates with monetary policy ever be able to be the global reserve currency?

quote:

---

That being said, their growing middle class and desire for prosperity might cause the nation to junk their approach to international property laws, etc. which have previously held them back. When the US economy is surpassed, china could become a much more attractive nation on which to base the global economy. Is this a threat to the underpinnings which have allowed us to run the deficit and use stimulus/easing while avoiding negative side affects? Serious question- I don't want to over-react to 1 article out there.

---

I'm not going to go into detail, but just keep in mind this very important aspect when discussing China:

There are very, very powerful vested interests in China. They are mostly involved with the communist party, and the communist party controls the state-run enterprises which are by far the largest companies in China. The middle class wealth will grow, but it will not be a smooth transition from an export driven economy to a consumption driven economy by any means. Will they pass the US by 2030? I don't know but I actually seriously doubt it for some structural and financially technical reasons.

OK, This is a game changer. FED TARGETED UNEMPLOYMENT.

Won't raise until un employment under 6.5%. Took away target dates.

We crossed the rubicon.