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Message
AL MVP odds
Posted on 11/15/12 at 8:56 am
Posted on 11/15/12 at 8:56 am
Not who you think SHOULD win it, but who you think WILL win it. Personally speaking, both trout and Cabrera are deserving, but I'll put it at a 85% chance Cabrera wins it.
6
Posted on 11/15/12 at 8:59 am to motorbreath
I feel pretty sure that Miguel wins it.
Although I feel even more certain that Trout should win it.
Although I feel even more certain that Trout should win it.
Posted on 11/15/12 at 9:02 am to motorbreath
Cabrera will win it I believe.
Obviously a damn strong case can be made for both and I think both of them deserve it.
Obviously a damn strong case can be made for both and I think both of them deserve it.
Posted on 11/15/12 at 9:06 am to motorbreath
Kurkjian said 90% of the players support Miggy, but writers are obsessed with that geek arse stat (WAG?) that Trout posted that puts him with like four hall of famers.
Posted on 11/15/12 at 9:10 am to Bunk Moreland
I think Miggy will win and I'm about 50/50 on who deserves it. WAR is so obviously flawed that I don't trust it, but Trout DID provide a more well-rounded resume with his base-running and defense. But he also did it in about 40 less games. And Cabrera gets "leadership" points for being willing to make an arse of himself at third base to make space on the roster for Fielder.
I think the stat geeks, of which I am one, are tilting at the wrong windmill. This is a coin flip.
I think the stat geeks, of which I am one, are tilting at the wrong windmill. This is a coin flip.
Posted on 11/15/12 at 9:14 am to motorbreath
I think Cabrera will win and he deserves it.... And I am a huge Mike Trout fan!
Posted on 11/15/12 at 9:42 am to OnTheBrink
This is a no brainer. Anyone trying to give this to trout has an agenda
Posted on 11/15/12 at 9:45 am to LSUTIGER in TEXAS
I think Miggy will win it, both deserve it. What Trout did this year was insane on all levels.
Posted on 11/15/12 at 9:53 am to motorbreath
I think Cabrera wins it and should win it.
Posted on 11/15/12 at 9:56 am to OnTheBrink
quote:
I think Cabrera will win and he deserves it.... And I am a huge Mike Trout fan!
Same. I know none of the new baseball guys care about stupid things like batting average, RBI, and Home Runs.
but its the fricking Triple Crown. That shite doesnt happen every day. Posted on 11/15/12 at 10:02 am to motorbreath
If you win the triple crown you are the MVP and that is the bottom line because 480 says so!
Posted on 11/15/12 at 10:03 am to lsu480
quote:
If you win the triple crown you are the MVP and that is the bottom line because 480 says so!
Tell that to Ted Williams.
Posted on 11/15/12 at 10:16 am to lsu480
What if 100 years ago, it was arbitrarily decided that the triple crown used runs instead of RBIs (which would have made just as much sense)? Would Miggy be a slam dunk, no doubt about it MVP then?
Posted on 11/15/12 at 10:31 am to The Seaward
Interesting fangraphs article on the debate.
Posted on 11/15/12 at 10:51 am to The Seaward
quote:
Interesting fangraphs article on the debate.
RE24 seems too reliant on base runners to accurately describe the whole story.
A Cabrera groundout would hurt more than a Trout groundout just because Austin Jackson was sitting on first. Why should we penalize or reward dependent on the runners on base? Miggy had more opportunities to hit with runners on-base, so the net cumulative effect of those at-bats hurt his RE24 more than Trout.
An entire argument on a single statistic is no better than arguing who is better simply on their WAR.
Miggy is my choice for MVP, but you really could make a nice argument for both sides. I think part of the reason that I like Miggy a lot and have considered among the elite hitters for years and years. I am glad he finally got his due recognition this year. Furthermore, he held advantages over Trout in SLG, OPS, TB, IBB+BB, HR, BA, RBI, GP, H, PA, AB, and BAC.
Posted on 11/15/12 at 11:05 am to The Seaward
quote:
The reality is that the case for Cabrera requires the assumption that baserunning and defense are of marginal value, and that position players should really by evaluated by their hitting statistics.
no, it doesn't. And I hate how stats sites which should no better continue to misrepresent their opponents' arguments. For people who have spent pretty much their entire careers having their own arguments misrepresented and belittled, I find this to be beyond frustrating.
It's not that defense and baserunning are of marginal value, though they are worth much less than hitting, it's that playing time matters. And what pisses me off is that stat sites know this, as can be seen every time they write about how overrated relievers are. Six months of excellent production is worth more than five months of excellence.
To completely skip over this part of the argument just infuriates me to no end. At least address it. Fangraphs is better than this. While career counting stats are a bit misleading (the old compiler argument), they are NOT misleading in the context of one single season. Sabermetric sites have to at least give me a reason why the counting stats don't matter.
Posted on 11/15/12 at 11:13 am to Baloo
I don't think they are ignoring or overlooking playing time. It's just that Trout provided more value in 5 months than Miggy did in 6. Nothing against Miggy, he was great. Trout was just amazing.
This post was edited on 11/15/12 at 11:14 am
Posted on 11/15/12 at 1:03 pm to The Seaward
The point is ... Trout kind of trailed off a bit the last couple of months. If he had played the whole season, his slide starts sooner and his whole season < miggys whole season. That's the theory anyway. And regardless of if you think trouts 5 months > miggys 6 months, you still have to give Miggy a bump for playing the whole season.
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