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Louie T 
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2006
27937 posts
| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/12/12 at 11:16 am to LSUAlum2001)
That's something someone else came up with? You mind emailing to me?
This post was edited on 10/12 at 11:17 am
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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
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| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/12/12 at 11:23 am to Louie T)
quote:
That's something someone else came up with? You mind emailing to me?
Chris Greene's spreadsheet.
Download it here from my google docs.
LINK
ETA: The sheet was updated thru W4. There could be some slight changes for this week, but there should not be a big discrepancy for W6.
This post was edited on 10/12 at 12:03 pm
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dcrews
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
3973 posts
| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/12/12 at 11:55 am to LSUAlum2001)
Jesus.....Gonna have to learn how to use this thing.
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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
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| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/12/12 at 12:06 pm to dcrews)
quote:
Jesus.....Gonna have to learn how to use this thing.
Compare Team Total Ratings between opponents. It's supposed to give an indication what the line should be.
Atlanta is -9.5 but the spreadsheet says the true spread should be -18 or so.
Also, if one team's rating is 3x the other, it's supposed be close to a lock.
The individual position ratings are fluid because it's based on stats, which fluctuates week to week.
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dcrews
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
3973 posts
| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/12/12 at 12:42 pm to LSUAlum2001)
I'm an idiot. I had the Pats/Seattle game on the brain while looking up Atlanta, so I compared the Falcons # to the Seahawks #. Couldn't figure out where the 3:1 ratio he was talking about came from 
Thanks for the help
ETA: So Dallas for example, getting +3.5 @ Baltimore should be a play since the ratings has the Dallas total rating higher than Baltimore's correct?
Or do we have to adjust each rating for homefield advantage?
This post was edited on 10/12 at 12:45 pm
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Louie T
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2006
27937 posts
| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/12/12 at 1:06 pm to LSUAlum2001)
Will do when I get home
Any idea what % he hit has year and hitting these year on both leans & locks?
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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
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Member since Aug 2003
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| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/12/12 at 4:10 pm to Louie T)
quote:
Any idea what % he hit has year and hitting these year on both leans & locks?
The 3:1 ratio is the highest % but I don't have those numbers.
His lines vs Vegas lines last week were 10-4 ATS overall.
The lines that were more than 5 more points different than Vegas were 6-2.
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dcrews
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
3973 posts
| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/12/12 at 4:49 pm to LSUAlum2001)
What would be the best way to account for homefield advantage? Same 3 pt swing in the line generated by the spreadsheet?
This post was edited on 10/12 at 4:56 pm
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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
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| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/12/12 at 4:52 pm to dcrews)
quote:
Same 3 pt swing in the line generated by the spreadsheet?
The spreadsheet only adds 1 point to the home teams total rating.
I'm going to send $90 to Chris for season long updates. I'll share the updates with you guys so we can all win.
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dcrews
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
3973 posts
| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/12/12 at 8:13 pm to LSUAlum2001)
If I did the calculations on my spreadsheet correctly, Greene's #'s would indicate we should play:
Cin -2.5
Indy +3.5
KC +4
Atl -9.5
Dal +3.5
Det +3.5
Mia -4
Sea +3.5
Ari -3.5
NYG +6.5
Hou -3.5
Den +1
Someone would need to verify this for me, in case I'm missing something.
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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
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Member since Aug 2003
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| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/12/12 at 8:25 pm to LSUAlum2001)
I received the updated info..
Here you guys go:
3:1 Ration plays
Atlanta -9 is a 3:1 Ratio over Oakland (30.2 to 9.95)
Big leans (lines off by 7+ with NBS)
Cincinnati -2 is a big lean (NBS says CIN -10.5)
Arizona -4.5 is a big lean (NBS says ARI -13)
Minnesota +2 is a big lean (NBS says MIN -7.5)
Houston -3 is a big lean (NBS says HOU -20)
Small Leans (Line difference 6 or less)
Kansas City +4 is a small lean (NBS says KC -2)
Indianapolis +3 is a small lean (NBS says NYJ/Ind P)
Detroit +3 is a small lean (NBS says Phil/Det P)
Dallas +3 is a small lean (NBS says Balt/Dal P
Seattle +3 is a small lean (NBS says SEA -3)
This post was edited on 10/12 at 8:41 pm
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dcrews
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
3973 posts
| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/12/12 at 8:33 pm to LSUAlum2001)
I thought Minnesota was on a bye week?
What's your personal preference on what you play?
This post was edited on 10/12 at 8:35 pm
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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
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Member since Aug 2003
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| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/12/12 at 8:36 pm to dcrews)
Chicago, New Orleans, Carolina, JAX are on byes..
KC +4 is a small lean with Quinn starting. They would have been a big lean with Cassel.
This post was edited on 10/12 at 8:39 pm
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dcrews
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
3973 posts
| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/12/12 at 8:38 pm to LSUAlum2001)
Wow my bad. I was going off what 5dimes has listed. They don't have the WAS/MIN game on the board.
Thanks for the info
This post was edited on 10/12 at 8:40 pm
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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
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Member since Aug 2003
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| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/12/12 at 8:43 pm to dcrews)
If you wanted to play them all, my guess would be:
3:1 ratios 4U
Big leans 2U
Small leans 1U
..and hope the 3:1 doesn't suffer a KOR TD like Houston did to lose ATS.
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dcrews
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
3973 posts
| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/12/12 at 8:52 pm to LSUAlum2001)
That sounds like a good idea.
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HoLeInOnEr05 
Auburn Fan
Middle of the fairway
Member since Aug 2011
12053 posts
| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/12/12 at 11:10 pm to dcrews)
Probably waiting to see if RGIII play before they post that game on the board.
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LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
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| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/13/12 at 8:11 am to HoLeInOnEr05)
I recently eclipsed 20000 posts and didn't realize it..
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bamafan425 
Alabama Fan
Starkville, MS
Member since Jan 2009
9854 posts
| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/13/12 at 11:45 pm to LSUAlum2001)
Overnight bump.
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dcrews
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2011
3973 posts
| re: NFL Week 6 Betting Thread.. (Posted on 10/13/12 at 11:47 pm to LSUAlum2001)
Well, after the shallacking I took in CFB, I may just load it all up on Atlanta -9 (would -9.5 be a bad play?)
Maybe take the winngs and roll it to Houston -3
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