CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided. - Page 2 - TigerDroppings.com

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CaptainBrannigan
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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


But how can this be. We have been told by the GOP for the lastr tow years that cutting spending is good for an economy.





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SlowFlowPro
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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


quote:

Lets make a problem worse so the fix is more difficult?

you mean like our economy struggling due to using up too much of its resources to fund the federal government and its debt/interest, so we borrow more money to save the economy...while adding more to the federal debt and interest?






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SlowFlowPro
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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


quote:

Do you not understand that all government spending COMBINED outside of entitlements and defense is pretty much irrelevant in terms of our debt problem?

yes. doesn't mean that we shouldn't slash the federal agency budgets, including military

quote:

A lot of government spending is both good and necessary.

outside of highway spending and security, which?







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SlowFlowPro
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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


quote:

cutting spending is good for an economy.

it is

which scenario is better for an economy?

1. leaving as much money in the economy as possible, for private parties to allocate it as they see fit

2. taking half the money out of the economy so that the half can be inefficiently allocated via government decision making






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Tiger n Miami AU83
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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


quote:

quote:
cutting spending is good for an economy.


it is

which scenario is better for an economy?

1. leaving as much money in the economy as possible, for private parties to allocate it as they see fit

2. taking half the money out of the economy so that the half can be inefficiently allocated via government decision making


I'm gonna make this very simple for you and be blunt. You seem to think spending outside of the big drivers is important as far as the debt goes. It is not. It is irrelevant

Drivers in order:
1.INTEREST the BIG ONE and the one we can't cut outright unless you like the idea of default
2. Defense
3. Social Security
4. Medicare and Medicaid
5. Wellfare
6. Pensions

Nothing else matters because it is peanuts and irrelevant as far as the debt goes.

Your two questions really show a fundamental lack of understanding unless your plan includes letting the private sector handle national defense, pay the government debt, pay SS, and pay the health care costs of all seniors that have spent a lifetime paying into the system. And how will you handle the pension payments the government is already committed to for retired people? I am sure someone from the private sector would be happy to take over, right?

As I said, a total lack of understanding. Unless you explain how the private sector is going to step up and handle the above, I do not see any point you are making as you are discussing more efficient allocation of peanuts while I am discussing the meat and potatoes.

ETA: Oh yeah, frick wellfare. The recipients did not pay into that program so it can suffer and eventually die for all I care.



This post was edited on 8/22 at 8:35 pm


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SlowFlowPro
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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


quote:

national defense

i'm perfectly fine with this being handled by the feds

quote:

pay the government debt, pay SS, and pay the health care costs of all seniors that have spent a lifetime paying into the system

these are the biggest issues

medicare and medicaid have to be slashed in particular

quote:

And how will you handle the pension payments the government is already committed to for retired people? I am sure someone from the private sector would be happy to take over, right?

oh no. i'm not talking about the private sector taking over federal obligations. those obligations are just decreased/eliminated

quote:

Unless you explain how the private sector is going to step up and handle the above,

the private sector isn't beholden to handle those issues. a failure of government is a failure of government







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Interception
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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


I think we can cut back on the $800 in groceries some welfare recipients are receiving. The amount of money they receive for food is astronomical.

ETA: Can't justify 45 million people on welfare. Come the frick on?



This post was edited on 8/22 at 8:42 pm


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Tiger n Miami AU83
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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


quote:

these are the biggest issues

medicare and medicaid have to be slashed in particular


I agree. I am all for reducing entitlements by doing things like raising retirement age, reducing benefits, etc. But it has to be done responsibly. My dad spent his whole life in the military and my mom teaching school. They contributed a lot to U.S. society and paid into SS for 45+ years. They should not suffer. People my age have to prepare for SS and the like to not be around in 30+ years.

Health care costs have to be contained. I am all for shifting the burden to states and even vouchers. I am furious at the medical profession costs. People don't need 4 opinions on an issue bc the gov foots the bill. Malpractice insurance is a problem. The gov footing the bill for the uninsured in part, etc.

quote:

oh no. i'm not talking about the private sector taking over federal obligations. those obligations are just decreased/eliminated


If people were promised something they get it. I do not see an option of not paying out something you promised already.

Point is we are in a fricked up situation. And no one in congress is willing to fix it. Or not enough at any rate.

And the fix is not rocket science. Reduce entitlements responsibly. Cut defense (and I like the military and kinda like going around whipping ass, but it has to be done). Slash the hell out of wellfare. Let people starve if they won't work. Those are simple IMO. The healthcare fix is complex, I admit that, but doable.

Last, you have to raise taxes, like it or not. Cuts alone won't work. The problem is too big because it has been allowed to get too big.



This post was edited on 8/22 at 8:50 pm


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Interception
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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.








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SlowFlowPro
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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


quote:

If people were promised something they get it.

that's not really a sustainable model

quote:

Slash the hell out of wellfare

welfare is only a pimple on our arse in terms of federal budget problems

quote:

Last, you have to raise taxes, like it or not.

why?

raising taxes doesn't guarantee higher receipts

the bush tax cuts in particular were wonderful for increasing federal tax receipts






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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


Restructure the tax code is the answer you are looking for. Rs can say its not raising taxes and Ds can say it is. It's all semantics?





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Tiger n Miami AU83
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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


quote:

welfare is only a pimple on our arse in terms of federal budget problems


In aggregate it is not. In aggregate it is about 40% of medicare + medicaid and more than pensions and disability plans. It is about $200B. It is not huge, but I don't like it so I will pick on it.

Revenues grew under Bush because the economy had a strong growth rate (mostly fueled by the housing bubble though).

You do away with the Bush tax cuts, you will see an increase in gov revenues right now. The propensity to save will assure that. I can see you disagree, but doing away with the Bush tax cuts is a no brainer and a starting point for higher taxes that means any other increases can be relatively small and marginal and still impactful IMO.






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SlowFlowPro
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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


i think the biggest factor in tax receipts is GDP

if our GDP grows, our tax receipts will grow

i don't see how taking money out of our economy and giving it to the feds to distribute inefficiently grows our economy






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Tiger n Miami AU83
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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


quote:

Restructure the tax code is the answer you are looking for.


Not going to happen. At least not to a substantial degree.






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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


I believe changing the tax code will spurn growth and will bring in higher receipts. Flatter rates, less loopholes, and more business incentives is what we need.





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Tiger n Miami AU83
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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


quote:

i think the biggest factor in tax receipts is GDP

if our GDP grows, our tax receipts will grow


I agree. Expiration of the bush tax cuts will have almost no effect on GDP however. Meaning a very small one that will be dwarfed by the increase in receipts. Propensity to save is a huge consideration in the bush tax cut expiration. Wealthy people save the vast majority of savings from those cuts.

I'll give a brief analogy that I believe relevant (although I have never used it in a discussion of the bush tax cuts)...

Several years ago the US gov passed a tax holiday law for US corps to be able to repatriate earnings abroad without incurring subpart F income taxes. In layman's terms, US companies could bring back money they had earned around the world that was sitting around in foreign countries earning interest without paying what amounts to a standard 30+ percent dividend tax. Why you ask? To reinvest in America and create jobs in America and boost the economy. What happened? The companies brought the money back to the US and paid no tax. Then not a damn thing happened. They did not reinvest in expanded operations, they did not create more jobs or hire people, they did not give raises or pay dividends. In short they did not put the money into play in the economy or help the economy. Why? They had enough capital and just sat on it. Just like the wealthy do with the additional savings from the bush tax cuts.

The propensity to save. The "job creators" need the extra money from the bush tax cuts to create more jobs is 5% truth, 95% bull shite.



This post was edited on 8/22 at 9:09 pm


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SlowFlowPro
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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


quote:

Expiration of the bush tax cuts will have almost no effect on GDP. Meaning a very small one that will be dwarfed by the increase in receipts.

what?

LINK







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Interception
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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


quote:

Not going to happen. At least not to a substantial degree.


No economist worth a salt would raise taxes in a recession, so there we go. You will get your wish on taxes raised with the Bush tax cuts expiring and Obamacare. Both will hurt lower income but that's the Presidents choice.






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Tiger n Miami AU83
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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


quote:

what?

LINK



Dude, come on. I have seen that crap you posted. I could tear it up, but I'm about to sign off an go to bed. So I can get up early and work late.

Briefly though, you act like the bush tax cuts were a primary driver in the recovery from the little dotcom recession. They weren't.






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Tiger n Miami AU83
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re: CBO: U.S. Will Enter Recession if Fiscal Cliff Not Avoided.


quote:

No economist worth a salt would raise taxes in a recession, so there we go.


One, we are not in a recession and have not been in about 2 years. More like a slow recovery due to a somewhat severe recession caused for reasons unrelated to taxes.

Two, many if not most economists will agree the national debt needs fixing. I would their are plenty that would agree the expiration of the bush tax cuts will help the economy long term if the additional revenues are used to help with the debt problem.






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