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Started By
Message
re: Disastrous night for the tank
Posted on 4/20/12 at 9:51 am to MinnesotaTiger
Posted on 4/20/12 at 9:51 am to MinnesotaTiger
quote:
stop cheering for us to win!
It's that crazy shite of enjoying your team playing hard and winning the occasional game. Clearly, I lack the requisite acumen when it comes to math and its relation to being a fan. Perhaps it's a matter of mental retardation and immaturity on my part. Maybe you can steer me to the path of recovery and some semblance of a normal life.
Cereally, though, while this draft is important, at best our chance of landing the number one spot would be 25%. As it is we're likely to be 15.6 or 11.9%. Statistically significant? Sure. Is it certain disaster? No.
ETA: Anyone who has staked their happiness as a fan solely on obtaining Davis is setting themselves up for disappointment regardless of who their team may be.
This post was edited on 4/20/12 at 9:54 am
0
Posted on 4/20/12 at 9:52 am to quail man
quote:
enjoy cheering for a team you allegedly support to lose
You're cheering for us to lose in the draft, what's the big difference?
Posted on 4/20/12 at 9:53 am to droman225
quote:
You're a bit animated about the subject.
I am as well, because I can't stand idiots.
past tendencies have ZERO effect on % based odds.
You can rationalize all you want, but the fact is last night cost us at least 5-10% to get the best player.
Posted on 4/20/12 at 9:55 am to Jumbeauxlaya
quote:
am as well, because I can't stand idiots.
past tendencies have ZERO effect on % based odds.
Please, who has said it's not better to have 25% than 15%? No one. However, I do think people are pointing out the random nature of numbers in the lottery and the fact that the team with the worst record still has a 75% chance of NOT getting the top pick. It's a motherfricking crapshoot people. Jeezus.
Posted on 4/20/12 at 9:56 am to Jumbeauxlaya
quote:
You're cheering for us to lose in the draft, what's the big difference?
you can't be serious right now.
Posted on 4/20/12 at 9:56 am to Jumbeauxlaya
quote:
You're cheering for us to lose in the draft, what's the big difference?
I don't even know how to respond to this bullshite.
Posted on 4/20/12 at 9:59 am to Jumbeauxlaya
quote:
You're cheering for us to lose in the draft, what's the big difference?
Wow, reading comprehension must not be very high for you
Posted on 4/20/12 at 10:02 am to Jumbeauxlaya
quote:
past tendencies have ZERO effect on % based odds.
If randomness was so well ordered that streaks never happened, Vegas probably wouldn't exist. Again, I'd rather have better odds than worse odds, but winning last night didn't cost us 5 - 10%. It's kind of an all or nothing proposition. We'll either win from 3, 4, 5 or we won't. To me the bigger problem with losing isn't going from 15% to 11%, it's possibly dropping from 6 at worst to 8 at worst.
This post was edited on 4/20/12 at 10:03 am
Posted on 4/20/12 at 10:04 am to TigerinATL
quote:
Again, I'd rather have better odds than worse odds, but winning last night didn't cost us 5 - 10%. It's kind of an all or nothing proposition. We'll either win from 3, 4, 5 or we won't. To me the bigger problem with losing isn't going from 15% to 11%, it's possibly dropping from 6 at worst to 8 at worst.
Now this makes more sense.
Posted on 4/20/12 at 10:06 am to TigerinATL
i'm going to lol so hard when we get the first pick with Minny's pick and the 4th pick with ours. while the third seed gets like 5th pick.
then I'm going to come on this board and call out every poster who ever supported the tank.
then I'm going to come on this board and call out every poster who ever supported the tank.
Posted on 4/20/12 at 10:09 am to quail man
Posted on 4/20/12 at 10:09 am to VOR
Either way you look at it, no team has a majority of the chances. So reveling in our losses to hope for a better player is not something I'm gonna do.
This team works their arse of every night and it's obvious they want to win, just let them have their moments.
This team works their arse of every night and it's obvious they want to win, just let them have their moments.
Posted on 4/20/12 at 10:10 am to TigerinATL
quote:
Stop being stupid. Yes the chances are reduced but look at who has won the 1st pick since 2005?
quote:
6 out of the last 7 years the team that won the lottery was lower than 3rd.
I'm not sure if there is one giant practical joke going on behind the scenes or what, but even if the team with the 10th best record won the lottery for the last 50 years, it's irrelevant.
Going from 3 to 5 doesn't eliminate us from #1 pick contention. It does HURT our chances though. Not sure why this is such a difficult concept for a lot of the people here to grasp.
Whether or not we should tank games is an entirely different discussion. However, strictly from a numbers standpoint, being at 3 is better than being at 5, Period.
Nothing personal to you TigerinATL, your post was in front of me and referenced the lotto so I used it.
This post was edited on 4/20/12 at 10:11 am
Posted on 4/20/12 at 10:11 am to quail man
quote:
i'm going to lol so hard when we get the first pick with Minny's pick and the 4th pick with ours. while the third seed gets like 5th pick.
By the same token, I'll flip the frick out if Houston (currently at a 0.6% chance) ends up with the top pick.
Of course, that would just demonstrate once again that anything can happen.Posted on 4/20/12 at 10:13 am to quail man
quote:I pray for this to happen
hen I'm going to come on this board and call out every poster who ever supported the tank.
Posted on 4/20/12 at 10:14 am to dcrews
quote:
I'm not sure if there is one giant practical joke going on behind the scenes or what, but even if the team with the 10th best record won the lottery for the last 50 years, it's irrelevant.
Going from 3 to 5 doesn't eliminate us from #1 pick contention. It does HURT our chances though. Not sure why this is such a difficult concept for a lot of the people here to grasp.
I think virtually everyone understands this concept.
By pointing out that the team with the worst record hasn't won the top spot very frequently, no one is suggesting that it's better to have any other specific record. I think they're just observing that the worst record is certainly no guarantee.
Posted on 4/20/12 at 10:18 am to dcrews
quote:
dcrews
thanks, I know you're not doing it to support the tank or anything but thank god you understand logic. I'm not very good at explaining these concepts to simpletons.. but then again that's why I'm not a teacher.
My point is purely this... a 5% greater chance of getting the best pick in the draft has a higher ROI than winning 1 extra game in an 70 game season.
ETA: :nb4moneytalk:
This post was edited on 4/20/12 at 10:19 am
Posted on 4/20/12 at 10:19 am to VOR
Why is this turning into the HT equivalent of a christians v atheists debate?
Can't we just agree to disagree?
Can't we just agree to disagree?
Posted on 4/20/12 at 10:19 am to RonFNSwanson
quote:
Either way you look at it, no team has a majority of the chances. So reveling in our losses to hope for a better player is not something I'm gonna do.
This team works their arse of every night and it's obvious they want to win, just let them have their moments.
couldn't have said it better.
Posted on 4/20/12 at 10:21 am to VOR
quote:
I think they're just observing that the worst record is certainly no guarantee.
I completely agree with this. But I do think there are still people on here that would argue that the past drafts do have some influence on what happens for the lotto THIS YEAR. Maybe I'm reading it wrong.
As for tanking. I would never expect a competitor to go out and lose on purpose, ever. If the organization decided to do so to get a player like LeBron James or Kobe, then it is what it is...a business decision for the future....10 games at the end of a season that mean absolutely nothing or the next 10 years of potential championship runs and being amongst the elite.
Either way, this team is going to get two top notch players added to their already hard working roster. Even without the 1st pick (or the 2nd or 3rd), this team is going become exponentially better next year.
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