So About Gasoline Prices - Page 2 - TigerDroppings.com

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WildTchoupitoulas
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2010
14584 posts

re: So About Gasoline Prices


quote:

Suggest bumping this when WildTchoupitoulas is online. I'd bet he'd have some solid insight.

It seems to me that demand IS high due to improving market conditions - in India and China.

Refining capacity in the US hasn't increased in years and has actually shrunk recently.

Oil prices DO impact gas prices and speculation has gone from less than 50% of the oil futures market to over 75% in the last ten years. This is in addition to the ever voilitile political situation in the ME affecting prices.

The Keystone pipeline would have virtually no effect on gas prices in the US. Curiously, the pipline would be cheaper to build to western ports in BC, but the Canadians would rather have the US suffer from potential environmental impacts, so they'd rather push it through to the Gulf.

The thing is, I'd like to see the price of oil go up to $200/bbl, mostly for green reasons - as in more green for me. $5-$10/gal gas prices? Wouldn't really effect me much.






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big Tiger 1885
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2011
1203 posts

re: So About Gasoline Prices


quote:

The thing is, I'd like to see the price of oil go up to $200/bbl, mostly for green reasons - as in more green for me. $5-$10/gal gas prices? Wouldn't really effect me much.


Yeah wou would. Food would be sky high, electricity would go sky high, medicine would be sky high and the list goes on and on. There is not one single thing that higher fuel prices don't affect






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WildTchoupitoulas
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2010
14584 posts

re: So About Gasoline Prices


quote:

Yeah wou would. Food would be sky high, electricity would go sky high, medicine would be sky high and the list goes on and on. There is not one single thing that higher fuel prices don't affect

No.

I.

Wouldn't.

I really don't use much electricity in my house at all, mostly gas appliances. In the winter (gas heat) I keep the thermo @ 65, in the summer I keep it @ 80-85 (it's OFF when I'm not at home). As it is, I frequently get Entergy bills in the $40-$60 range. If it goes over $100, I'm trying to find out what went wrong.

I'm not on any medicine - maybe I should be, but that's a topic for another conversation.

Maybe food, but then the increase in revenue from $200/bbl oil would more than offset increased food prices. Not to mention, I'm getting more and more of my food off of local farms, fresh eggs and veggies, some goat cheese, all free. And TBH, I'd eat horse and mule if shite got real.

I learned at an early age the difference between needs and wants because I thought we were poor. Turns out we weren't, but it was an invaluable lesson. I can live extremely cheaply.

A refrigerator full of PBR, and a $35 ukulele on the back porch, and I'm set for the weekend. Sometimes I hop on the bike and take the show on the road, but then my bike gets 90 mpg on the highway.






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GumboPot
LSU Fan
Saints Fan
Member since Mar 2009
23957 posts

re: So About Gasoline Prices


quote:

1. There are more drilling rigs in the Gulf now than before the BP spill and production is at a record high. The same trend holds for onshore production.


Offshore production is down, onshore is up. Overall drilling is up. The moratorium only affected offshore drilling. LINK

Also good info here: LINK

quote:

2. Last year, America's number one export was gasoline, and the trend of exporting refined fuel is accelerating. Hence, the Keystone project will have little or no effect on domestic fuel prices.


Psychologically it likely will. However, the goal of the Keystone project is not necessarily to affect prices. The goal of the Keystone project is to cost effectively bring the Canadian oil sands crude to market.

We manufacture many more products from crude than just gasoline. Exports are good for our economy, even if it is gasoline. No one ever complains about exporting shrimp, corn, wheat, rice, crawfish, etc. We should also be happy about exporting gasoline.

quote:

3. The predominant reason for rising gasoline prices is the reduction in refining capacity. As an example, shutdowns of some refining facilities by owners (because the are deeemed insufficiently profitable) could reduce capacity in the Northeast by as much as 50%.


The predominate reason for rising gasoline prices is monetary policy. We are beginning to feel the results of QE1, QE2, ZIRP, Operation Twist, EBC Euro easing, etc. The average folks don't see or understand this. Crude is the antidote to easy money policies. And since 30% of crude is gasoline, we feel it at the pump.

I would like to see the data on the reduction on refining capacity before I agree with your assertion. We are a net exporter of gasoline so something is not jiving there.






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CerealKilla
SMU Fan
Das Boot
Member since Jan 2011
6098 posts

re: So About Gasoline Prices


quote:

1. There are more drilling rigs in the Gulf now than before the BP spill and production is at a record high. The same trend holds for onshore production.

Production for federal owned portion of the Gulf of Mexico is down 30%. Also production on federal leases in the Rocky Mountains are down 70%. Production is up due to exploration of private and state owned lands.






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igoringa
LSU Fan
Tejas
Member since Jun 2007
9533 posts

re: So About Gasoline Prices


quote:

The Keystone pipeline would have virtually no effect on gas prices in the US. Curiously, the pipline would be cheaper to build to western ports in BC,
quote:

but the Canadians
would rather have the US suffer from potential environmental impacts, so they'd rather push it through to the Gulf.


Um No. There are certain factions on the big glacier (aboriginals, certain northern BC towns like Prince Rupert etc...) that have come out against such pipelines, but the northern Gateway pipeline, for example, is being pushed by the federal government (and most cdn governments) to do the very thing you say they dont want done. Your comments are the equivalent of saying Americans are against something because Greenpeace said they dont like it.







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Zach
LSU Fan
Member since May 2005
62957 posts

re: So About Gasoline Prices


quote:

I really don't use much electricity in my house at all, mostly gas appliances. In the winter (gas heat) I keep the thermo @ 65, in the summer I keep it @ 80-85 (it's OFF when I'm not at home). As it is, I frequently get Entergy bills in the $40-$60 range. If it goes over $100, I'm trying to find out what went wrong.


In the winter (gas heat) I keep the thermo at 66, in the summer (electric) I keep it at 68. It's ON when I'm not at home because my wife is there. My gas plus electric averages 150. And, since we live in the country gasoline prices are a much bigger factor than home energy.

I want drilling in the ANWR, drilling off both coasts, drilling on reserved land, the XL pipeline. And, if you do all of this and the price of gasoline doesn't go down a LOT, then come back and talk to me.






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WildTchoupitoulas
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2010
14584 posts

re: So About Gasoline Prices


quote:

Your comments are the equivalent of saying Americans are against something because Greenpeace said they dont like it.

I would say my comments are more like those of Claude Gravelle, vice chair of the Canadian Parliament's Natural Resources Committee:

There is huge opposition across Canada. There are dozens of First Nations [tribes] that oppose the pipeline, there is a treaty issue, there are royalty issues, there are a lot of things that are not on the table and we would like all of these things to be taken into consideration.

First Nations people are concerned about the environment just like we are. There is much resistance to the Gateway pipeline from the people of British Columbia and the First Nations in that area and it is crossing such an environmentally-sensitive area that I would be surprised [if it was built]. Also with the hearings going on, there have been 4,000 organizations that are seeking to intervene. There is a lot of concern right across Canada.


And the Canadians have also stated that they would route the Keystone through Canada, in spite of the Northern Gateway, if it is rejected in the US.

Why wouldn't they just route it through Canada in the first place?

I think it's to avoid all of the environmental concerns they are already having with the NG.






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lashinala
LSU Fan
Huntsville-Birthplace of Alabama
Member since Jan 2006
5626 posts

re: So About Gasoline Prices


Check history of 'crack spread' over last 10 years and add speculation as Wild said. Maybe add some tax increases (actually, not sure on this part). gas is still cheap in some spots (i.e. WYoming) so not an easy answer. Most people think the same gas meant for us goes to China, which is BS. Its the same 'you gotta hurry and act now' crowd that keeps making money. Hell, look at how much fuel we saved pulling out of Iraq.





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WildTchoupitoulas
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2010
14584 posts

re: So About Gasoline Prices


quote:

I want drilling in the ANWR, drilling off both coasts, drilling on reserved land, the XL pipeline. And, if you do all of this and the price of gasoline doesn't go down a LOT, then come back and talk to me.




Not only do I not want drilling in ANWR, offshore of States that don't want it, or reserved lands, I don't care about the Keystone, and I don't care much for talking to you about anything.

I'd tell you to come back and talk to me about it - but I'd really rather you didn't.






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C
LSU Fan
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Dec 2007
21109 posts

re: So About Gasoline Prices


quote:

Why wouldn't they just route it through Canada in the first place?


Well the keystone pipeline isn't just to bring canadian sands oil to the markets; it's to tie in multiple oil production sites to multiple refining centers across the midwest and western gulf coast. The pipeline isn't a straight shot to the south.






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Choctaw
Navy Fan
Pumpin' Sunshine
Member since Jul 2007
49647 posts
 Online 

re: So About Gasoline Prices


quote:

The Keystone pipeline would have virtually no effect on gas prices in the US. Curiously, the pipline would be cheaper to build to western ports in BC, but the Canadians would rather have the US suffer from potential environmental impacts, so they'd rather push it through to the Gulf.


not immediately but it would effect gas prices. and why the hell do the Canadiens want the US to suffer?

quote:

The thing is, I'd like to see the price of oil go up to $200/bbl, mostly for green reasons - as in more green for me. $5-$10/gal gas prices? Wouldn't really effect me much.


wow






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Bard
LA-Monroe Fan
BR
Member since Oct 2008
15778 posts

re: So About Gasoline Prices


Supply is up, demand is down and the price has continued to rise. The only other normal element of causality is speculation. Speculators control ~80% of the oil market.

The CEO of Exxon-Mobil, Rex Tillerson, told a Senate hearing last year that speculation was driving up the price of a barrel of oil by as much as 40%. The general counsel of Delta Airlines, Ben Hirst, and the experts at Goldman Sachs also said excessive speculation is causing oil prices to spike by up to 40%. Even Saudi Arabia, the largest exporter of oil in the world, told the Bush administration back in 2008, during the last major spike in oil prices, that speculation was responsible for about $40 of a barrel of oil.

A decade ago speculators controlled only about 30% of the oil futures market. Today, they control nearly 80%.

When Bush signed legislation in the latter part of the summer of 2008 that removed the administration's barriers to more offshore drilling & exploration, the price of oil (and thus gasoline) began freefalling that day and continued to do so for months. By December we had gone from ~$4/gallon to just under $2/gallon.

The *ONLY* thing that happened during that time to cause such a drop was the speculation dropping (people either getting out or shorting). This is where we are at once again.






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WildTchoupitoulas
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2010
14584 posts

re: So About Gasoline Prices


quote:

Well the keystone pipeline isn't just to bring canadian sands oil to the markets; it's to tie in multiple oil production sites to multiple refining centers across the midwest and western gulf coast. The pipeline isn't a straight shot to the south.

I guess I'm just going off statements such as...

"If we don't build this pipeline ... that oil is going to get shipped out to the Pacific Ocean and will be sold to the Chinese," said House Speaker John Boehner






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igoringa
LSU Fan
Tejas
Member since Jun 2007
9533 posts

re: So About Gasoline Prices


As I said the opposition is mainly aboriginal and your standard environmental groups. Canadian governmental policy has been to push these through.

quote:

And the Canadians have also stated that they would route the Keystone through Canada, in spite of the Northern Gateway, if it is rejected in the US.


LOL I told you they were for it!

quote:

Why wouldn't they just route it through Canada in the first place?


Because their primary customers currently are the refinery base in the Midwest through the South. It is the quickest and cheapest way to export to the largest refinery base in the world. Not sure why this is not self evident.

quote:

I think it's to avoid all of the environmental concerns they are already having with the NG.


Naw. Look Canadians always have additional complications on projects like this due to the way they dealt with the Aboriginal treaties. In effect, the First Nations have exorbitant power and can tie these things up. The Coal industry in Northern BC went through this and now the oil industry.

Not discounting the red tape it costs, but the easiest and most lucrative solution was to transport by pipeline straight down south. Plan B is diversify customer base, ship the stuff to BC where it will end up all over the Pacific Rim.

The US is effectively forcing them to diversify which is pushing the need to pipeline west. It wasnt option one as it was not an efficient way to deliver the output to the end customer.








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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
50613 posts
 Online 

re: So About Gasoline Prices


quote:

Curiously, the pipline would be cheaper to build to western ports in BC, but the Canadians would rather have the US suffer from potential environmental impacts, so they'd rather push it through to the Gulf.
Yikes! How has that not made headlines?






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Bard
LA-Monroe Fan
BR
Member since Oct 2008
15778 posts

re: So About Gasoline Prices


Potential environment impacts... like an increase in the caribou population?





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WildTchoupitoulas
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2010
14584 posts

re: So About Gasoline Prices


Yeah, I read that same article on CNN.

The thing is, between the growing economies of India, China and Brazil, demand isn't really going down globally.

It's a combination of factors.






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ottothewise
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2008
32094 posts

re: So About Gasoline Prices


quote:

We actually don't have a refining capacity issue nationally that I am aware of.


Its a regional issue.

We did that thread/topic yesterday, at length.

its even more proof that the capitalist system fails USA as an engineering solution.






This post was edited on 2/29 at 2:31 pm


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NC_Tigah
LSU Fan
Member since Sep 2003
50613 posts
 Online 

re: So About Gasoline Prices


quote:

Potential environment impacts... like an increase in the caribou population?
As WT alluded, First Nations are given wide birth in Canada. We do a Canadian fly-in fishing trip each year, deep in Aboriginal country. Relationships with First Nations are very interesting.






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