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Posted on 2/22/12 at 12:52 pm to bigpapamac
quote:
LSU would have to win two, with one of them being Florida or Kentucky (the likely opponenet in the scenario) to get a real serious look
completely disagree. If they win out and win two in the SEC tourney, it does not matter one bit who they play in those games.
beating UK is not a prerequisite for any team in the conference (since nobody has), why would it be for LSU? not following your logic there
This post was edited on 2/22/12 at 12:54 pm
Posted on 2/22/12 at 12:55 pm to pellietigersaint
I think he means we would most likely play UK or Fla in the second game
Posted on 2/22/12 at 12:58 pm to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
with one win, LSU will most likely be left out. (and i will be pissed) with two wins, LSU SHOULD be included, but COULD be left out.
Look at this objectively. The SEC likely gets 5 teams in the tournament. 4 at the very minimum, but it should be 5 given that the SEC is decent this year (3rd or 4th best conference).
If LSU finishes 10-6 in the SEC, they finish in the top 4 of the conference (and get an SECT bye), winning one in the tourney puts them in the top 4 of the SECT as well. In that case, LSU is clearly a top 4 SEC team (when 5 teams go to the tourney).
So who in the SEC could steal that spot from LSU? the 5th place regular season team (let's assume Bama) couldn't do it. Not only would they have finished behind LSU in the conference, but they would have played LSU in the quarters and lost (IF they get past round 1). The 6th place team (e.g. MSU) has struggled down the stretch. Sure they could win the next 3 and then win 2-3 in the tourney. That unlikely scenario would put them in over LSU, but if the SEC does get the expected 5 teams in, LSU would be the 5th team in.
Sure, anything can happen. If a sleeper like Tenn wins the whole SECT and then MSU is the runner up (very unlikely), LSU would probably be the 6th SEC team in the pecking order. But even then, a case could be made for 6 SEC teams.
This post was edited on 2/22/12 at 12:59 pm
Posted on 2/22/12 at 12:58 pm to txtiger21
quote:
txtiger21
Great link it shows if we win out minus the confrence final we are a >99% chance and as is we are a 24% chance. I will be following this closely for sure!
Posted on 2/22/12 at 1:06 pm to pellietigersaint
quote:
completely disagree. If they win out and win two in the SEC tourney, it does not matter one bit who they play in those games.
beating UK is not a prerequisite for any team in the conference (since nobody has), why would it be for LSU? not following your logic there
We will play UK or Florida in the semis depending on if we get the 3 or 4 seed. Don't know what you're ranting about.
Posted on 2/22/12 at 1:45 pm to lsumatt
quote:I agree. this makes sense, but the committee often doesn't. see Alabama/UGA last season.
Look at this objectively. The SEC likely gets 5 teams in the tournament. 4 at the very minimum, but it should be 5 given that the SEC is decent this year (3rd or 4th best conference).
If LSU finishes 10-6 in the SEC, they finish in the top 4 of the conference (and get an SECT bye), winning one in the tourney puts them in the top 4 of the SECT as well. In that case, LSU is clearly a top 4 SEC team (when 5 teams go to the tourney).
Posted on 2/22/12 at 2:11 pm to lsutiger2
We have to make the tournament final, which includes beating Kentucky in the semis.
Posted on 2/22/12 at 2:18 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Sure, anything can happen.
yea after seeing what happened w/ uga and bama last yr i'll just let the chips fall where they may
Posted on 2/22/12 at 2:38 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
We have to make the tournament final, which includes beating Kentucky in the semis.
Seriously. In the example I gave above explain which SEC teams make it above LSU if LSU finishes 10-6 and then makes the semis. Explain your answer.
Posted on 2/22/12 at 2:40 pm to S
quote:
yea after seeing what happened w/ uga and bama last yr i'll just let the chips fall where they may
The Georgia/Bama situation was stupid and certainly makes you say there is no such thing as a lock. But even if a similar situation re-appeared, you would have to expect the "Bama-like" team to get in over the "UGA-like" team.
Posted on 2/22/12 at 2:42 pm to lsumatt
quote:has predicted very conservatively since all the talk started. I don't think he'll be convinced otherwise...although, I'd like to hear a response to your argument.
BayouBengals03
Posted on 2/22/12 at 2:47 pm to lsutiger2
Win the last four(Which will likely mean a bye in the SECT) and one win which will place them in the tourney Semis will likely get them in. Remember the field is expanded this year so a minimum of 4 SEC teams and possibly 5 will get in. If they don't win out the regular season they likely have to get to the tournament finals which is a huge chore.
Posted on 2/22/12 at 2:51 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
I'd like to hear a response to your argument.
Right. I mean are we predicting only 3 SEC teams get in? Or are we predicting Alabama with a worse SEC record, worse performance in the SEC Tourney, 2 losses to LSU (including in the SEC tourney), and poor play down the stretch gets them in over LSU?
Posted on 2/22/12 at 3:00 pm to lsumatt
quote:
Seriously. In the example I gave above explain which SEC teams make it above LSU if LSU finishes 10-6 and then makes the semis. Explain your answer.
quote:
LINK
We would still have two bad losses and a low RPI.
Florida got in over Mississippi State two years ago, despite having the same conference record, more losses overall, AND losing to them in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament.
State lost a heart breaker to Kentucky in the final and still didn't get in. The committee doesn't give a frick about us finishing in the top four of our conference. There are no guarantees just because we make the semifinals of the conference tournament either. They care about resumes. We have ONE good win all season long. We have TWO bad losses. We didn't play that strong of a schedule. We're going to finish with a mediocre RPI.
The field is 68 teams, so that helps our chances. I've said I think we'll be right around the line, but I don't think we'll get in unless we beat Kentucky in New Orleans. The SEC isn't guaranteed to get 4 teams in, and honestly, why should it? It has 3 good teams and a bunch of mediocre teams who can't win a game on the road to save their collective lives.
Posted on 2/22/12 at 3:03 pm to lsumatt
quote:
So who in the SEC could steal that spot from LSU? the 5th place regular season team (let's assume Bama) couldn't do it. Not only would they have finished behind LSU in the conference, but they would have played LSU in the quarters and lost
Yes, Alabama could (and would if they are in fact 5th, because they would've won at least 3 and probably 4 games by the second round). Alabama's RPI would be much higher than LSU's and the head to head stuff isn't all you make it out to be. Committee members have said that and have walked the walk. Just look at Alabama and Georgia last year. Alabama 12-4 in the SEC, UGA 9-7. Last game of the regular season Alabama beats Georgia, second round of the SECT Alabama beats Georgia. Georgia goes to the dance, Alabama doesn't because of non-conference schedules and RPI. Same stuff is killing LSU this year.
Posted on 2/22/12 at 3:05 pm to BayouBengals03
You never really explained what you think would happen. And nobody is claiming there is a 100% chance LSU gets in, only that it is likely.
Are you predicting:
(a) the 3rd/4th best conference gets only 3 teams in a 68-team field or
(b) the SEC gets 4 (probably 5 like most predict) and Bama and MSU get in the tourney with worse SEC records, arguably worse resumes, and play down the stretch than LSU?
Are you predicting:
(a) the 3rd/4th best conference gets only 3 teams in a 68-team field or
(b) the SEC gets 4 (probably 5 like most predict) and Bama and MSU get in the tourney with worse SEC records, arguably worse resumes, and play down the stretch than LSU?
This post was edited on 2/22/12 at 3:07 pm
Posted on 2/22/12 at 3:08 pm to lsumatt
And for the record, LSU's RPI isn;t very good right now but despite the weak schedule they will inch up in the RPI probably to right around #50 by tourney time. If they split games against Bama and UK, they either stay the same or likely move u a little to the upper 40s. That will probably be better than MSU's RPI and close to Bama.
Posted on 2/22/12 at 3:10 pm to bigpapamac
Yeah, Alabama would get in before LSU, most likely. However, I'm not sure they get in either.
Posted on 2/22/12 at 3:15 pm to lsumatt
quote:
You never really explained what you think would happen. And nobody is claiming there is a 100% chance LSU gets in, only that it is likely.
Are you predicting:
(a) the 3rd/4th best conference gets only 3 teams in a 68-team field or
(b) the SEC gets 4 (probably 5 like most predict) and Bama and MSU get in the tourney with worse SEC records, arguably worse resumes, and play down the stretch than LSU?
a) Alabama wouldn't have a worse resume. b) It's really irrelevant. Either you have a good enough resume to get in, or you don't. It has nothing to do with how many teams each conference gets in. We're not just fighting against Alabama or Mississippi State, we're fighting against every bubble team from all of the conferences in the country. If Alabama and State struggle down the stretch, that helps LSU. Not necessarily because they are in the SEC (although that would help ensure us of a bye), but because that just eliminates two bubble teams from the entire country.
But if you really want me to pick one of your options, I'd absolutely say Alabama would get in over us, assuming we both finish the season pretty strong. Their current RPI is 36. Ours is 67. That makes much bigger of a difference than us finishing one game better than them in conference and beating them 2 out of 3. And I don't think we can make up too much of that gap between now and the end of the season by beating four mediocre to bad SEC teams.
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